59 results found
The speed at which China has escalated its assertive manoeuvres in the West Philippine Sea aligns with the broader context of contemporary internation
Beyond defensive measures, New Delhi needs to step up efforts for a potent cyber offensive capability that can enable retaliatory strikes against Chin
The Observer Research Foundation, in partnership with the Center for Contemporary Conflict (CCC), Naval Post-graduate School, California, USA, and the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Pakistan undertook a project, Crisis and Escalation in South Asia: The 2002 India-Pakistan Military Standoff....
New Delhi’s decreased policy manoeuvrability coupled with China’s decreasing need to comply with international norms and conventions is a dangerou
The structural pretext that drove West Asia’s cycle of competition and proxy conflict is still in place without a clear solution in sight
The deterrence game between India and Pakistan has changed dramatically with India’s decision to conduct a military strike across the Line of Contro
Clausewitz may be out of fashion and less relevant today but no one can question his evergreen noting, ¿Each age has had its own peculiar forms of war.... Each, therefore, would also keep its own theory of war¿.
This brief situates Pakistan’s pursuit of a sea-based nuclear deterrent within the context of its asymmetric escalation strategy. It does so by examining the role of Pakistan’s land-based tactical nuclear weapons in such strategy, as well as by raising questions about claims that India may be shifting towards a counterforce targeting strategy and thus endangering the survivability of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent. The brief also reviews clai
Since August 2021 when the US withdrew from Afghanistan, ceasefire violations at the India-Pakistan Line of Control (LoC) and killings of minorities in J&K have been reported. Indeed, the fall of Kabul to the Taliban has bolstered the anti-India establishment and the terrorist groups in Pakistan—putting the February 2021 ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan under stress. India's conventional military response of the type of the 'S
While individual strikes on the LoC are fine, an escalation of tension and a breakdown of the 2003 ceasefire will be a negative rebound.
Any future terrorist attack could be met by a response to a contour shaped by the Balakot action.
It is the fear of escalation, which the Pakistan army has masked behind bombastic threats, that India needs to exploit.
Information operations have long been Pakistan’s preferred tool to execute and supplement its hybrid warfare in Jammu and Kashmir.
In the conventional escalation along the LAC, India cannot afford to ignore China’s expanding nuclear arsenal
The decision about whether to escalate or not is much more complex than it appears.
Both Iran and Pakistan have their hands full with regional conflicts. Neither would want to escalate it beyond a point as their resources are already
Chances are that the tit-for-tat exchange between Iran and Pakistan will not escalate; neither side wants nor can afford an open conflict
The recent missile attacks by Iran on Israel present a bleak outlook for security in the Middle East in the coming days
Whether the escalation of conflict between the US and Iran can be calibrated or not, is difficult to predict.
Pyongyang’s recent live-fire drills could set in motion a series of events with far-reaching consequences for regional stability, diplomacy, and the
If the Balakot strike is not to join the dismal achievement of previous Indian attacks, it has to be part of a deterrence strategy.
India should not fall for hyped up fears of nuclear escalation; Pakistan is a rational actor that understands the limitations of nuclear weapons
In the near future, we will likely see the United States supplement domestic mechanisms to decouple from China — with systematic escalation — at k
India’s border dispute with China, which goes back to the 1950s, primarily owes to the absence of an internationally accepted boundary between them, and of an agreement on where runs the Line of Actual Control. The border, as a result, is patrolled and managed by the military forces of both sides. After initial efforts to resolve the dispute failed, the two sides signed a set of agreements aimed at stabilising the LAC and normalising their rela
After lying low for decades, the Sri Lankan Tamil issue made an entry into the native Indian Tamil psyche in a big way. The twin reasons responsible for such awareness among the Tamil population are--- first, the escalation of fighting in Sri Lanka where government forces seem to be getting an upper hand and second,
Exploring the India-Pakistan 'de-escalation' dilemma, expansion of Bhutan's soft-power and other recent developments from South Asia.
Since April, 2005, there has been a co-ordinated escalation of acts of jihadi terrorism in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Jammu and Kashmir (J) State of India. It is my assessment that the coming months will see more and not less incidents of jihadi terrorism in these three areas.
From Iran's perspective, Israel breached a critical threshold by attacking its diplomatic mission, which Tehran deemed its sovereign territory
This return to business as usual is reflective of the wariness on both sides to escalate the crisis further and prevent it from metastasising into a new front of conflict.
Indian announcement of having conducted surgical strikes across the de-facto border with Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir has major implications for deterrence-stability in South Asia. New Delhi has sought to devise a military strategy to respond to Pakistan’s sub-conventional war that does not lead to escalation of conflict to nuclear levels and collapse of nuclear deterrence. This paper analyses India’s surgical strikes of September 2016, thei
In the present crisis in Congo there is a possibility of escalation of violence if Kabila continues to find reasons to postpone elections
The ongoing India-China face-off in Eastern Ladakh may appear to be a small-scale confrontation between conventional forces. But it is still one between nuclear-armed states, and the threat of escalation cannot be denied. In its wake, India has carried out a series of missile tests, while China too has fired a number of ballistic missiles near the Paracel and Spratly Islands, apparently to warn the US, but hardly something New Delhi can ignore. T
Thankfully the accidental firing of an Indian missile into Pakistani territory did not lead to escalation, but many questions remain unanswered about what happened.
With the risks for escalation and miscalculations growing in the Ukraine war, it is time to revisit the sobering lessons of 1962
The current escalation of the longstanding dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region seems to be nothing more than a storm in a t
There have been fears expressed that if the situation in Ukraine worsens, it could spread across the border to Russia. While that appears highly unlikely at present, an escalation of the confrontation raises the spectre of a civil war in Ukraine.
India is asserting its rights as a Nuclear Weapons Power, and France is helping us do this at great risk to itself, and the Indian public discourse se
The costs of a hot conflict in the Asia Pacific would be high and have difficult consequences. The challenge for US and its partners would be to deter Chinese aggressive posture without risking an escalation of conflict.
The wave of terrorist violence that will hit India as a result of de-escalation at this stage is not going to be a tenable proposition.
The wave of terrorist violence that will hit India as a result of de-escalation is not going to be a tenable proposition for India.
If Pakistan is willing to escalate and want to respond to the recent surgical strike, what are likely to be its options?
The targeted assassination of Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, the founder of the militant Hamas group, by Israel was a dangerous act of escalation. Hamas, locked in a violent campaign with Israel, responded to the outrage with threats to "send death to every house, every city and every street in Israel." Hamas has avenged Israeli targeted killings with suicide bombings in the past.
While India continues to evacuate its citizens from Yemen, China was quick to complete its operation last week. China had barely 600 people in Yemen to rescue. India had nearly 4,000 citizens in Yemen when the evacuation began last week amid the escalation of the conflict.
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