Search: For - escalation

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China-Philippines ties: Towards more escalations in the West Philippine Sea?
Oct 25, 2023

China-Philippines ties: Towards more escalations in the West Philippine Sea?

The speed at which China has escalated its assertive manoeuvres in the West Philippine Sea aligns with the broader context of contemporary internation

Chinese cyber escalation against India’s electricity grid amidst the boundary crisis 
Mar 10, 2021

Chinese cyber escalation against India’s electricity grid amidst the boundary crisis 

Beyond defensive measures, New Delhi needs to step up efforts for a potent cyber offensive capability that can enable retaliatory strikes against Chin

Crisis and Escalation in South Asia
May 12, 2005

Crisis and Escalation in South Asia

The Observer Research Foundation, in partnership with the Center for Contemporary Conflict (CCC), Naval Post-graduate School, California, USA, and the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Pakistan undertook a project, Crisis and Escalation in South Asia: The 2002 India-Pakistan Military Standoff....

De-escalation this time around will not be as easy as in Doklam
Jun 23, 2020

De-escalation this time around will not be as easy as in Doklam

New Delhi’s decreased policy manoeuvrability coupled with China’s decreasing need to comply with international norms and conventions is a dangerou

In West Asia, don’t confuse tactical de-escalation with strategic alignment
Mar 31, 2023

In West Asia, don’t confuse tactical de-escalation with strategic alignment

The structural pretext that drove West Asia’s cycle of competition and proxy conflict is still in place without a clear solution in sight

India now controls the escalation ladder
Oct 05, 2016

India now controls the escalation ladder

The deterrence game between India and Pakistan has changed dramatically with India’s decision to conduct a military strike across the Line of Contro

Limited War and Escalation Control
Nov 22, 2004

Limited War and Escalation Control

Clausewitz may be out of fashion and less relevant today but no one can question his evergreen noting, ¿Each age has had its own peculiar forms of war.... Each, therefore, would also keep its own theory of war¿.

Pakistan’s sea-based nuclear deterrent and its asymmetric escalation strategy
Aug 21, 2023

Pakistan’s sea-based nuclear deterrent and its asymmetric escalation strategy

This brief situates Pakistan’s pursuit of a sea-based nuclear deterrent within the context of its asymmetric escalation strategy. It does so by examining the role of Pakistan’s land-based tactical nuclear weapons in such strategy, as well as by raising questions about claims that India may be shifting towards a counterforce targeting strategy and thus endangering the survivability of Pakistan’s nuclear deterrent. The brief also reviews clai

Risk Assessment and Escalation Management in India-Pakistan Conflicts
Dec 15, 2021

Risk Assessment and Escalation Management in India-Pakistan Conflicts

Since August 2021 when the US withdrew from Afghanistan, ceasefire violations at the India-Pakistan Line of Control (LoC) and killings of minorities in J&K have been reported. Indeed, the fall of Kabul to the Taliban has bolstered the anti-India establishment and the terrorist groups in Pakistan—putting the February 2021 ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan under stress. India's conventional military response of the type of the 'S

Uri aftermath: Retaliation, with de-escalation built in
Sep 30, 2016

Uri aftermath: Retaliation, with de-escalation built in

While individual strikes on the LoC are fine, an escalation of tension and a breakdown of the 2003 ceasefire will be a negative rebound.

After Balakot strike, time to de-escalate
Feb 28, 2019

After Balakot strike, time to de-escalate

Any future terrorist attack could be met by a response to a contour shaped by the Balakot action.

Escalate to deter the Pakistan army
May 05, 2017

Escalate to deter the Pakistan army

It is the fear of escalation, which the Pakistan army has masked behind bombastic threats, that India needs to exploit.

Fog of War: A first glimpse of wartime information operations
Mar 01, 2019

Fog of War: A first glimpse of wartime information operations

Information operations have long been Pakistan’s preferred tool to execute and supplement its hybrid warfare in Jammu and Kashmir.

In stand-off, keeping an eye on the nuclear ball
Jul 08, 2020

In stand-off, keeping an eye on the nuclear ball

In the conventional escalation along the LAC, India cannot afford to ignore China’s expanding nuclear arsenal

India-Pakistan crisis exposes Modi’s dilemma
Feb 28, 2019

India-Pakistan crisis exposes Modi’s dilemma

The decision about whether to escalate or not is much more complex than it appears.

Iran and Pakistan open a new frontier of conflict
Jan 19, 2024

Iran and Pakistan open a new frontier of conflict

Both Iran and Pakistan have their hands full with regional conflicts. Neither would want to escalate it beyond a point as their resources are already

Iran and Pakistan: Another front for an already embattled Islamabad
Jan 19, 2024

Iran and Pakistan: Another front for an already embattled Islamabad

Chances are that the tit-for-tat exchange between Iran and Pakistan will not escalate; neither side wants nor can afford an open conflict

Iran, Israel, and West Asia are on the brink again
Apr 15, 2024

Iran, Israel, and West Asia are on the brink again

The recent missile attacks by Iran on Israel present a bleak outlook for security in the Middle East in the coming days

JCPOA in the ICU
Jul 04, 2019

JCPOA in the ICU

Whether the escalation of conflict between the US and Iran can be calibrated or not, is difficult to predict.

North Korea's artillery fire and regional implications
Jan 09, 2024

North Korea's artillery fire and regional implications

Pyongyang’s recent live-fire drills could set in motion a series of events with far-reaching consequences for regional stability, diplomacy, and the

One strike isn’t enough to establish deterrence
Feb 26, 2019

One strike isn’t enough to establish deterrence

If the Balakot strike is not to join the dismal achievement of previous Indian attacks, it has to be part of a deterrence strategy.

Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons limit India’s conventional military options
Jun 25, 2024

Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons limit India’s conventional military options

Pakistan’s TNWs could deter India's conventional military superiority, preventing territorial gains. The threat of tactical nuclear escalation might

Proportional response will not stop Pakistan from cross-border terrorism
May 02, 2017

Proportional response will not stop Pakistan from cross-border terrorism

India should not fall for hyped up fears of nuclear escalation; Pakistan is a rational actor that understands the limitations of nuclear weapons

Separation anxieties: US, China and tech interdependence
Apr 09, 2020

Separation anxieties: US, China and tech interdependence

In the near future, we will likely see the United States supplement domestic mechanisms to decouple from China — with systematic escalation — at k

Sino-Indian Border Deadlock: Time to rewrite India playbook
Aug 31, 2020

Sino-Indian Border Deadlock: Time to rewrite India playbook

India’s border dispute with China, which goes back to the 1950s, primarily owes to the absence of an internationally accepted boundary between them, and of an agreement on where runs the Line of Actual Control. The border, as a result, is patrolled and managed by the military forces of both sides. After initial efforts to resolve the dispute failed, the two sides signed a set of agreements aimed at stabilising the LAC and normalising their rela

Soft Kill’ or ‘Hard Kill’? The requirements for India’s space and counter-space capabilities
Nov 15, 2019

Soft Kill’ or ‘Hard Kill’? The requirements for India’s space and counter-space capabilities

Despite testing and confirming the acquisition of Kinetic Energy Weapons (KEW)—an integral part of strategic defence systems that are an alternative to nuclear warheads—India remains in need of a more robust military space programme. The country’s principal rival in the space military arena, China, has significantly more expansive and diverse capabilities. Although KEWs as part of its counter-space programme are not a panacea for India’s

South Asia South Asia Weekly 40
Oct 06, 2008

South Asia South Asia Weekly 40

After lying low for decades, the Sri Lankan Tamil issue made an entry into the native Indian Tamil psyche in a big way. The twin reasons responsible for such awareness among the Tamil population are--- first, the escalation of fighting in Sri Lanka where government forces seem to be getting an upper hand and second,

South Asia Weekly Report | Volume XII; Issue 10
Mar 13, 2019

South Asia Weekly Report | Volume XII; Issue 10

Exploring the India-Pakistan 'de-escalation' dilemma, expansion of Bhutan's soft-power and other recent developments from South Asia.

State of Jihadi Terrorism
Jun 30, 2005

State of Jihadi Terrorism

Since April, 2005, there has been a co-ordinated escalation of acts of jihadi terrorism in Iraq, Afghanistan and the Jammu and Kashmir (J) State of India. It is my assessment that the coming months will see more and not less incidents of jihadi terrorism in these three areas.

Strategy and tactics in Israel-Iran escalatory ladder
Apr 19, 2024

Strategy and tactics in Israel-Iran escalatory ladder

From Iran's perspective, Israel breached a critical threshold by attacking its diplomatic mission, which Tehran deemed its sovereign territory

Striking with caution: Beyond the performative muscle flexing, Islamabad had little choice
Jan 28, 2024

Striking with caution: Beyond the performative muscle flexing, Islamabad had little choice

This return to business as usual is reflective of the wariness on both sides to escalate the crisis further and prevent it from metastasising into a new front of conflict.

Surgical Strikes and Deterrence-Stability in South Asia
Jun 24, 2017

Surgical Strikes and Deterrence-Stability in South Asia

Indian announcement of having conducted surgical strikes across the de-facto border with Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir has major implications for deterrence-stability in South Asia. New Delhi has sought to devise a military strategy to respond to Pakistan’s sub-conventional war that does not lead to escalation of conflict to nuclear levels and collapse of nuclear deterrence. This paper analyses India’s surgical strikes of September 2016, thei

The conflict in Democratic Republic of Congo
Oct 10, 2016

The conflict in Democratic Republic of Congo

In the present crisis in Congo there is a possibility of escalation of violence if Kabila continues to find reasons to postpone elections

The India-China Nuclear Dynamic: India’s Options
Dec 22, 2020

The India-China Nuclear Dynamic: India’s Options

The ongoing India-China face-off in Eastern Ladakh may appear to be a small-scale confrontation between conventional forces. But it is still one between nuclear-armed states, and the threat of escalation cannot be denied. In its wake, India has carried out a series of missile tests, while China too has fired a number of ballistic missiles near the Paracel and Spratly Islands, apparently to warn the US, but hardly something New Delhi can ignore. T

The Many Unanswered Questions About India’s Missile Accident
Mar 25, 2022

The Many Unanswered Questions About India’s Missile Accident

Thankfully the accidental firing of an Indian missile into Pakistani territory did not lead to escalation, but many questions remain unanswered about what happened.

The old but relevant script of the Cuban Missile crisis
Nov 01, 2022

The old but relevant script of the Cuban Missile crisis

With the risks for escalation and miscalculations growing in the Ukraine war, it is time to revisit the sobering lessons of 1962

The risks of Russia’s nuclear posturing
May 22, 2024

The risks of Russia’s nuclear posturing

While the odds of any tactical nuclear strike by Russia remain low at present, Moscow’s nuclear signalling has set a dangerous precedent.

The Venezuela-Guyana dispute: A storm in a teacup?
Jan 18, 2024

The Venezuela-Guyana dispute: A storm in a teacup?

The current escalation of the longstanding dispute between Venezuela and Guyana over the Essequibo region seems to be nothing more than a storm in a t

Ukraine: Heading towards civil war?
Jan 30, 2014

Ukraine: Heading towards civil war?

There have been fears expressed that if the situation in Ukraine worsens, it could spread across the border to Russia. While that appears highly unlikely at present, an escalation of the confrontation raises the spectre of a civil war in Ukraine.

When India failed Rafale
Jul 21, 2018

When India failed Rafale

India is asserting its rights as a Nuclear Weapons Power, and France is helping us do this at great risk to itself, and the Indian public discourse se

Why Geopolitical Strategy is Key to Sustaining American Power
May 26, 2015

Why Geopolitical Strategy is Key to Sustaining American Power

The costs of a hot conflict in the Asia Pacific would be high and have difficult consequences. The challenge for US and its partners would be to deter Chinese aggressive posture without risking an escalation of conflict.

Why Modi must not play the ‘statesman’ and agree to enter into dialogue with Pakistan
Feb 28, 2019

Why Modi must not play the ‘statesman’ and agree to enter into dialogue with Pakistan

The wave of terrorist violence that will hit India as a result of de-escalation at this stage is not going to be a tenable proposition.

Why Modi must not play the ‘statesman’ and agree to enter into dialogue with Pakistan
Mar 05, 2019

Why Modi must not play the ‘statesman’ and agree to enter into dialogue with Pakistan

The wave of terrorist violence that will hit India as a result of de-escalation is not going to be a tenable proposition for India.

Why would Pakistan respond?
Sep 30, 2016

Why would Pakistan respond?

If Pakistan is willing to escalate and want to respond to the recent surgical strike, what are likely to be its options?

Yassin's killing: Possible Impact
Mar 24, 2004

Yassin's killing: Possible Impact

The targeted assassination of Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, the founder of the militant Hamas group, by Israel was a dangerous act of escalation. Hamas, locked in a violent campaign with Israel, responded to the outrage with threats to "send death to every house, every city and every street in Israel." Hamas has avenged Israeli targeted killings with suicide bombings in the past.