Haniyeh’s death has altered the dynamics of negotiations around the Gaza conflict, with Yahya Sinwar now leading Hamas and complicating de-escalation efforts
Image Source: Getty
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Politburo Chief of Hamas in central Tehran has fundamentally shifted the mannerism in which negotiations were taking place around the Gaza war over the past few months. Hamas, the Palestinian group at the forefront of the conflict, announced its frontline leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, as the new chief.
Sinwar is now the most wanted man in the Middle East for playing a critical role in designing the 7 October attacks against Israel. Today, as the Israeli military campaign continues unabated in Gaza and civilian deaths mount, Sinwar is still known to be in this geography’s deep system of tunnels designed for long-term safety and keeping Hamas and allies safe from aerial bombardment. Sinwar replacing Haniyeh is bad news for both, the regional de-escalation efforts and the probability of a ceasefire. Hezbollah in Lebanon find themselves increasingly aligned with Israel in a way that both are making a compromise brokered by either the Arab states or the United States next to impossible. This feeds into the increasing elusiveness of a ceasefire agreement.
Hezbollah in Lebanon find themselves increasingly aligned with Israel in a way that both are making a compromise brokered by either the Arab states or the United States next to impossible.
Until his killing, Haniyeh was part of a clique within Hamas which was technically distinguishable from the group’s militant arm operating under the Al-Qassam Brigades. While there were no ideological differences, the political arm, particularly since October last year, positioned itself as a bridge between the negotiators and Yahya Sinwar under whose control both Gaza and Israeli hostages remain. There were even reports that differences between Sinwar and the Hamas Politburo over the terms of the negotiations persisted with Haniyeh wanting more leniency from Sinwar, even though Israel’s embattled Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was also found changing the goalposts frequently. It is becoming clear, that both Sinwar and Netanyahu, were not wanting to make concessions to break the impasse despite international pressures for the latter and fear of increasing unpopularity within Gaza for the former.
Sinwar replacing Haniyeh now centralises all power exclusively around him. Predictions made until only a few days ago on who would be the new Hamas political chief mostly named the group’s political envoys such as former leader Khaled Mashal or Qatar-based Khalil al-Hayya, who was working the negotiations on a day-to-day basis. Sinwar’s appointment effectively may end the public face of Hamas’s negotiation efforts. Much like the Taliban example from the past decade, where the core of the group had developed a level of mistrust of their own officials who spent a long time living in the Qatari capital of Doha and negotiating with the West, a similar trajectory of consolidation of the political process in and around the core of the group in Gaza seems to be underway, effectively merging the political and military wings into one.
Sinwar was released as part of the infamous “Shalit Deal” with Hamas in 2011 where 1,027 Palestinians were set free in exchange for captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit.
Sinwar is well-attuned to Israeli politics and strategic thinking. He spent 23 years in an Israeli jail, serving four life sentences for killing Palestinians accused of being traitors. During his imprisonment, he taught himself Hebrew and gained insights into Israeli politics and strategic discourse. Sinwar was released as part of the infamous “Shalit Deal” with Hamas in 2011 where 1,027 Palestinians were set free in exchange for captured Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Since then, his ideological resolve, and deep knowledge of Israel put him at the forefront of the group’s leadership.
It remains unknown as of today if the political brass of Hamas pushed back against Sinwar’s selection as the head of the group or whether external patrons, such as Iran, over-rode any internal complications. For Tehran, Sinwar’s appointment is advantageous, as it bogs down the conflict. Furthermore, considering the big power competition in the region where Russia and China back their regional ally Iran, this creates a conundrum. Both Beijing and Moscow have hosted Hamas political delegations. With the Politburo itself now cut down to size, access to Sinwar may well only be via Iran or an eventual intermediary of his choosing, whom he can fully puppeteer when it comes to political talks. Meanwhile, Israel has reiterated its resolve to eliminate Sinwar while the Hamas chief has reportedly asked for a safe passage for himself as part of the currently faltering talks.
With the Politburo itself now cut down to size, access to Sinwar may well only be via Iran or an eventual intermediary of his choosing, whom he can fully puppeteer when it comes to political talks.
Finally, perhaps the assassination of Haniyeh was ill-timed. While no country or agency has officially claimed responsibility for it, some reports in the American press suggest that Israel privately admitted its role to the United States (US). The manifesto-like document released by Hamas in 2017 to date provides the most detailed outlook regarding the group’s political thinking. It makes clear that their political track is only to complement the primary strategy, which is led by military operations. “Resisting the occupation with all means and methods is a legitimate right guaranteed by divine laws and by international norms and laws. At the heart of these lies armed resistance,” it reads. Much has changed since 2017, and more specifically, since October 2023.
Sinwar’s ascension as the all-round leader now pushes the Middle East into a greyer area as Iran’s own tensions with both Israel and the US deepen and any off-ramp for the conflict in Gaza remains elusive. Ongoing talks continue to be orchestrated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar as direct contact between Netanyahu and Sinwar remains improbable.
Kabir Taneja is a Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Kabir Taneja is a Deputy Director and Fellow, Middle East, with the Strategic Studies programme. His research focuses on India’s relations with the Middle East ...
Read More +
PREV
