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The tiny nation's economy has become yet another victim of the protracted ethnic conflict between Tamils and Sinhalese. This week, Standard and Poor credit rating agency has downgraded the rating of Sri Lanka from 'stable' to 'negative' reflecting concerns about the weak fiscal consolidation efforts and the unfavourable trends evident in the country's debt profile.

After days of speculation and diplomatic haggling, the United Nations Security Council finally decided to discuss the humanitarian issue in Sri Lanka arising out of the ethnic conflict in the island nation.

As long as humanity has been going into space, efforts have been made to disrupt space capabilities. What is new, however, is the proliferation of counterspace capabilities beyond the Cold War superpowers, as well as the increased importance of space for many countries. This means that not only has the incentive to interrupt countries’ ability to utilise space grown, but so have the tools for responding accordingly. This brief examines what ‘

The defence and foreign ministers of Japan and the US, meeting under the bilateral consultative committee, have decided to revise the 1997 Guidelines for US-Japan Defence Cooperation to make sure that the alliance continues to maintain its credibility and effectiveness in deterring conflict in Asia-Pacific.

Russia has long depended on migrant labour. However, the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, and a devaluing Ruble have impacted migrants economically. These developments, coupled with institutional hurdles and rising xenophobia in Russia, have pushed migrant labourers to seek alternate employment destinations. Notably, workers from countries such as Kazakhstan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine are swaying away from Russia, even as

Better sense must prevail and both India and Pakistan must avoid serious conflict that will hardly help either. True progress will happen when Pakistan starts to wind up its terror factory

This paper examines India’s ‘two-front’ dilemma in view of its conflicts with China and Pakistan, and the possibility that these two adversaries could join forces. The author studies historical events that could help outline the strategies that have been undertaken by certain countries to combat the combined power of multiple adversaries, usually exceeding their own. These include the Napoleonic strategy and the Israeli experience. In analy

This return to business as usual is reflective of the wariness on both sides to escalate the crisis further and prevent it from metastasising into a new front of conflict.

Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir's bold act of barging into the Abyei territory with his troops is a sure act of defiance and it remains to be seen to what extent this conflict can be kept from turning into a full-blown war.

Indian announcement of having conducted surgical strikes across the de-facto border with Pakistan in Jammu and Kashmir has major implications for deterrence-stability in South Asia. New Delhi has sought to devise a military strategy to respond to Pakistan’s sub-conventional war that does not lead to escalation of conflict to nuclear levels and collapse of nuclear deterrence. This paper analyses India’s surgical strikes of September 2016, thei

The issue of radical Islamism remains Russia's fundamental concern in Syria. Having fought two Chechen wars, it would not want another conflict to erupt on its territory. If either the ISIS or the rebels succeed in overthrowing Assad, there is a huge likelihood of expansion of jihadist activity to the Caucasus and southern Russia.

The Ukraine crisis may have effectively ended the rapprochement between the USand Russia, and in turn affecting relations such as those of Japan and Russia. Prior to this crisis,and the subsequent Western sanctions on Russia, Tokyo and Moscow had been reaching out toeach other, and hope flickered for a resolution to the territorial dispute over the NorthernTerritories or Southern Kurils. This paper argues that with nationalist governments in powe

If India becomes a hotbed of conflicts - many think this may happen in the future - attracting FDIs will be a major problem. Even, our domestic investors are looking for investment opportunities abroad.

With growing water scarcity across many parts of the world, competition over access to this vital resource has been known to spark conflict. Following the September 2016 Uri attack in India, the government made plans to retaliate against its neighbour by exercising its right to use water of the western rivers—allocated to Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty—by building dams, canals and reservoirs. This paper aims to address the legal, econ

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are the first truly global attempt to set universal development goals for all countries and transform the economic system. More than halfway through the timeline of achieving the SDGs, the COVID-19 pandemic and a series of subsequent crises have dealt a deathblow to the SDGs. A massive financing gap is the primary obstacle to the achievement of the global goals by 2030. This brief argues that the G20, with

Wargaming can aid in strategic thinking and operational preparedness and help assess potential outcomes in a conflict or a battlefield. In recent years, modern militaries have been moving to technology-based wargaming by developing better modelling and simulations and running AI-generated plausible scenarios to enhance understanding of threat environments and operational realities. This paper analyses the merits of technology-based wargaming and

Under the garb of a trade war, this is a high-stakes strategic conflict between a power which wants to preserve the status quo in its favour and one which wants to usurp that throne.

Yemen is the cradle to the Arabs, Iraq their grave. So goes an Arab proverb. Since March 2003 Iraq has certainly been the grave of a great many Arabs ¿ men, women, and children caught in the crossfire of a conflict wantonly unleashed to sustain a misbegotten thesis.

Young people across the world today are facing multiple challenges: lost school years due to the pandemic-induced lockdowns, the looming climate crisis, increasingly dangerous virtual spaces, and food and energy security concerns triggered by the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This paper analyses the challenges facing the youths of the Commonwealth, where 60 percent of the combined population are under 30 years old, and explores the investments require

The Maghreb, often considered part of the Arab world, straddles the Euro-Mediterranean region, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula—a location that has given it a distinct history, political landscape, economy, and development trajectory. It is also emerging as an arena for great-power contestations, and is rich in natural resources critical for green transition. Historically dominated by former colonial powers, the countries in the re

This paper examines the maritime infrastructure of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)--tracing the history of the development of its maritime organisation, infrastructure and strategy. The paper focuses on the salience of sea power as perceived by a violent non-state actor and provides a perspective on how non-state actors employ sea power in asymmetric conflicts

Emergency humanitarian aid, which aims to save lives and reduce people’s suffering in times of crises, has grown considerably over the last century to become a central feature of international relations and of the multilateral system. It is estimated that over 400 million people depend on such aid today. The future of these people and of the humanitarian aid they depend on are fraught with risks, in light of five palpable trends: exponentially

The ongoing India-China face-off in Eastern Ladakh may appear to be a small-scale confrontation between conventional forces. But it is still one between nuclear-armed states, and the threat of escalation cannot be denied. In its wake, India has carried out a series of missile tests, while China too has fired a number of ballistic missiles near the Paracel and Spratly Islands, apparently to warn the US, but hardly something New Delhi can ignore. T

With over 9,000 NATO forces staged on the ground in Afghanistan, Trump has larger stakes in this country than in any other current conflict arena.

Afghanistan is facing its most complex humanitarian crisis yet, resulting from the cascading impacts of four decades of conflicts and endemic poverty, and in more recent years, climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and chronic foreign aid dependency. Today, 97 percent of all Afghans live below poverty line, and one in every three Afghans (or 14 million) face severe hunger. This report seeks to understand the complexities of Afghanistan’s human

The Russia-Ukraine war has confounded observers, as much as it did the Russians themselves. Since erupting in late February, the war has not shown signs of abating any time soon. This brief argues that by its very nature, the war has lessons not just for the adversaries, but also the NATO alliance that is backing Ukraine, and even geographically distant China and India. For one, the war has both elements of the old eras—such as the mass

In 1991, President George H.W. Bush proclaimed that the victory in the Gulf war presented an extraordinary opportunity to settle the Middle East conflict. This led to the Madrid conference, secret parleys between Israeli and PLO negotiators in Norway and then to signing of what came to be known as the Oslo accords in a grand ceremony at the White House in 1993.

Blinken’s visit may be another way of signalling to China that it shouldn’t exploit any crisis to escalate new ones, at least until the US elections are over

Conventional theories have become insufficient in explaining the complexities of terrorist action. This brief offers an integrative approach that borrows from psychology, inter-group conflict theory and neuroscience to understand the mind of a terrorist and, by extension, inform counterterrorism strategies. It provides evidence against popular beliefs about terrorists as principally being religious extremists who lack a moral compass and belong t

Limited liability partnerships among nations will constitute the geometry of politics. This is a gritty, realist world. We may not like it, but it’s here to stay

Transboundary water politics in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basin areaffected not only by inter-government relations between India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh,but also by dynamics on different scales, including the hydropolitics between Indian stateswithin the basin. At the same time, the disputed issues, and the patterns of power dynamicsbetween actors, are similar in transboundary interactions in the basin as well as in inter-stateinteracti

The impact of the Kachin conflict should also be evaluated in terms of Myanmar?s ties with other nations, especially Japan ? a nation that is one of the principal aid providers and architects of Myanmar?s path to development.

The troubled state of Jammu and Kashmir is governed by two controversial laws – the Armed Forces (Jammu and Kashmir) Special Powers Act (AFSPA) of 1990 and its predecessor, the Jammu & Kashmir Public Safety Act (PSA), 1978. In the past few years, state security forces have been enforcing these two laws against suspected militants and insurgents with increasing severity. This paper argues that the combined enforcement of these two laws has s

India and Russia are showing an appetite for continued economic engagement. Bilateral trade increased exponentially from US$12.34 billion in 2022 to US$65 billion in 2023; the target is US$100 billion by 2030. To achieve such a level of economic cooperation, the private sector in both countries will need to increase their participation. This brief assesses the presence of India’s private sector in Russia and evaluates the potential for enhanced

Amit Krishankant Paul, The Siachen Story: The Inadvertent Role of Two German Explorers in Starting the Race to the World’s Highest Battlefield, April 2024, Observer Research Foundation.

This brief discusses the status of Gorkhas who have joined the Russian Army and the Wagner Group as civilians, combatants, and mercenaries. Would Gorkhas, who otherwise constitute part of the regular armed forces in the United Kingdom and India, enjoy the same status if they join an ongoing conflict without entering into any bilateral agreement between the states? If not, what will the Gorkhas' status be under the prevailing international law reg

The US has long grappled with the Taiwan issue. So far, its policy of ‘strategic ambiguity’ has deterred the use of force by the People’s Republic of China (PRC). It is a moot question if this policy can be sustained to counter the PRC’s assertive military posture in the Taiwan Strait. The question before the US is whether it can deter an invasion and avoid a war with the PRC, simultaneously. The PRC is determined to seek reunification an

While India would be hoping that the reported secret talks between the US and Iran succeeds, avoiding a conflict, New Delhi could take a leaf out of the Chinese and Japanese strategy of reducing its exposure to Iranian oil in return for a waiver from US sanctions.

In his third term, He should take a proactive approach to peacemaking, like Norway & Switzerland. This will help India better mangae its external environment.

Amidst increasing global connectivity and accelerating global change, the global security framework has become insufficient, contributing to a crippling dysfunctionality in international cooperation. The current security framework, focused almost exclusively on a narrow notion of military security, is insufficient to address escalating ‘threats without enemy,’ such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution, which increasingly endang

With both India and the US having differing domestic and national priorities, these countries are bound to compete and conflict on trade issues. But these must not be allowed to overshadow the larger gains that bilateral trade has brought to each country.

After the United States and its allies left Afghanistan in 2021, analysts expected Russia to fill the vacuum caused by the withdrawal. As far as Moscow itself is concerned, it would like to establish full diplomatic ties with the Taliban regime while it urges Western countries to take accountability and fulfil their responsibilities towards the Afghan people. Indeed, Russia’s desire for security and regional hegemony compels it to selectively e

President Trump's efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine and Hamas-Israel wars have faced significant obstacles, revealing the complexities of peacemaking. Despite his campaign pledge to resolve both conflicts quickly, negotiations have stalled.

‘Bizarre’ has become the new byword in Washington under Trump

The Syrian crisis has become a test case for Turkey's foreign and domestic policy. Determined to find a balance between its global expectations and regional objectives, Turkey aimed towards the downfall of the Assad regime, relying on its strength in the Arab streets and support to rebels to ensure a rapid outcome. This tolerance for the radical opposition in Syria, along with the failure in finding a resolution to the Kurdish issue, has contribu