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Since August 2021 when the US withdrew from Afghanistan, ceasefire violations at the India-Pakistan Line of Control (LoC) and killings of minorities in J&K have been reported. Indeed, the fall of Kabul to the Taliban has bolstered the anti-India establishment and the terrorist groups in Pakistan—putting the February 2021 ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan under stress. India's conventional military response of the type of the 'S
The region need to response to the unfolding migrant crisis in the Andaman Sea. India and the Indian Navy must move quickly with other regional players to bring an end to the humanitarian crisis in the Bay of Bengal.
The end of the Cold War in 1991 presented Russia and the European Union (EU) with an opportunity to reorganise their bilateral relationship. For more than a decade, they did manage to nurture close ties. Beginning in the mid-2000s, however, the relationship steadily declined, reaching its lowest in 2014 in the aftermath of the Ukrainian crisis. As mutual grievances have accumulated since then, there has been an absence of a forward-looking agenda
Africa has become essential to Russia’s geostrategic posture as Moscow seeks to overcome the backlash to its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. However, in the face of isolation and a contracting economy, Russia has realised that cultivating an entry point in Africa through conventional means such as foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, development assistance, or cultural and educational exchanges may not be its best option. Instead, Mosc
Russia has always been actively involved with European politics. Its genesis in Kiev—close to the European borders—allowed it to participate in the affairs of the continent. Although Russia’s geographic expanse has been more in Asia, Russian political elites have traditionally identified the country as a European entity. However, following attempts at integrating with the transatlantic economic and political system during the first decade o
The failure of SAARC to nurture cooperation in South Asia has pushed regional players to search for an alternative. BIMSTEC, grouping the nations in the Bay of Bengal region, is popularly favoured as the viable option. Two decades since its inception, however, BIMSTEC’s successes have been minimal. How workable is BIMSTEC as an option for pursuing regional cooperation in South Asia? Are SAARC and BIMSTEC competitors or do they complement each
Hard-nosed realists around the world are impressed with Modi's diplomatic flair seen during his visits to Nepal and Japan. But they ask if Modi can go beyond the atmospherics and bring about a substantial change in the relationship with China. Here again, Modi has the opportunity to introduce change.
In his writings in the closing decades of the 19th century, the novelist, nationalist and patriot, Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyaya placed the blame for India’s subjugation by foreign powers on what he called the “individualistic, other-worldly” philosophy of Sankhya, a philosophy based on reasoning, reckoning and enumeration.[1] This brief examines Chattopadhyaya’s charge and concludes that he was unaware of the power and this-wor
Saudi Arabia, under the tutelage of the crown prince and heir apparent Mohammed bin Salman, is remoulding its two main exports—oil and Islam—to future-proof both the Saudi state and the monarchy that runs it. While transitions of such scale and consequence have been attempted before, they have met with limited success. Today, the challenges and opportunities before Riyadh are simultaneously invigorating and jarring. This brief assesses Saudi
By bringing China and Russia into the region and by developing strategic partnerships with important players such as India, Riyadh is signalling its intent to reduce its dependence on the US. Mohammed bin Salman is looking at a policy of multi-alignment that affords greater strategic autonomy.
As the frequency and impacts of climate events increase, demand for adaptation at the local level becomes urgent. The adaptation finance received from developing and least- developed countries is estimated to be less than USD 25 billion per year, which is exponentially less than the required amount of USD 215 billion per year. Further, the evidence indicates that less than 10% of global climate finance reaches the local level. Local communities l
Recongnising the pivotal role of technology in ensuring India?s emergence as a global player, Observer Research Foundation (ORF), New Delhi, has launched a ?Technology Initiative?. As the first event, a one-day workshop on ?Science & Technology Challenges for India? is being hosted on May 7, 2005. The workshop brings together renowned professionals to evolve collective, cohesive thinking on issues of significance to India?s S&T performance and as
This issue brief examines the complex interplay between science fiction and technology development in the age of disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and brain-computer interfaces. As the line between science and fiction continues to blur, this brief argues for strategically using science fiction narratives to inform and guide technology development and policymaking. Drawing upon historical precedents of scien
The European Union (EU) and India should be “natural allies”. Faced with an authoritarian advance on their borders and globally, “the world’s largest democracies” should be collaborating more closely than ever today. But the tango that the EU and India have been dancing is a rather clumsy one. This brief delves into the causes for the limitations of the partnership and identifies critical miscalculations that have been made on both side
यह संक्षिप्त विवरण विकास के लिए प्रभावी और ज़रूरी ग्लोबल गवर्नेंस के समक्ष आने वाली सबसे बड़ी चुनौतियों में से एक पर चर्चा करता है, यानी संयुक्त राष्ट्र सतत विकास लक्ष्यो�
This paper looks at debates from the days of the British Raj until now that have shaped India's strategic thought on Afghanistan. It highlights the impact of India's territorial construct on its strategic imagination and argues that India's Afghan policy is determined by its political geography. Afghanistan has proved to be a security lynchpin in South and A Central Asia over the last two decades. Home to a variety of militant networks with regi
East Asia has become an increasingly volatile region amid China’s posturing and territorial claims on land and in the sea. The US pivot to Asia, meant to contain China, is based on a slew of strategic partnerships with its regional allies and partners, such as South Korea. The US-South Korea relationship is an important pillar in checking China’s rise, but in recent years, Seoul appears to be gravitating towards Beijing. This brief se
The so-called ‘War on Terror’ launched by the United States following the September 11, 2001 attacks in its soil has had far-reaching implications to the pursuit of peace across many parts of the world. One of the crucial areas where the war is being fought is Afghanistan, which has been both a breeding ground of terrorism and a victim of violent terrorist attacks itself. This brief analyses the role played by Japan, a major ally of the US, i
India's second COVID-19 wave was marked by a daily surge in incident cases and a high prevalence of severe forms of the novel coronavirus. COVID-19–related studies on Indian populations have focused on aspects like seroprevalence, estimating the peak of infections, and vaccine efficacy. However, other lifestyle factors, such as activity levels, are of significance and can broaden our understanding of COVID-19. Across the world, the pandemic lif
The Shahbagh protests could become a defining moment in Bangladesh's history, bringing back secularism in to the midst of political debate in the country.
India and South Korea stand as important middle powers whose influence in the Indo-Pacific region is expanding in their own ways. At the same time, their bilateral partnership today has even bigger potential to serve as a stabilising factor amid shifting regional geopolitical equations. The current year—the 50th since the two countries established formal diplomatic ties—is an opportune moment for harnessing their converging interests. This br
Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's visit to the ISI HQ at Aabpara, Islamabad, on July 11 has raised eyebrows over its timing and content. Sharif and his ministerial colleagues stayed at the ISI HQ for five hours and were briefed by the chiefs of the Army and the ISI.
Indian authorities may now have the opportunity to directly access data stored on U.S. servers
Expecting India to bail Sri Lanka out every time there is a crisis may work for some time, but it's a recipe for disaster.
The current debate around euthanasia and assisted death brings in spotlight what technological possibilities of the future may end up achieving for humanity.
The national identity of Pakistan is rooted in the ‘two-nation theory’—the very basis of the creation of the country—which says that the Hindus and Muslims of the subcontinent were two different nations and therefore, the Muslims were entitled to a separate homeland where Islam would be practiced as state religion. Does Pakistan’s quest for identity, however, mean neglecting the non-Islamic culture present in the country? This brief cal
The shift of the non-PPP Sindhi leadership to other non-Sindhi parties, and their subsequent victories there, though limited, is shows that much of Sindhi society is looking to the rest of the country to bring about change in the Province. Better connecting Sindh to the Pakistani mainstream is now seen by many as a solution to their internal grievances.
Myanmar remains hugely important for India. The naval visit last week again focused attention on the role of India and China in the Southeast Asian state, even though New Delhi’s weakness lies more in non-security realms.
This issue brief examines what is little known about the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (LeT) to underline the threat it continues to pose to India and the world six years after the Mumbai attacks.
Over four billion people do not have access to Internet; that makes a huge two-thirds of the global population. In India, around four of every five people lack this basic resource. Various access technologies are being developed in different parts of the world to bridge the digital divide. Amongst these technologies, the emergence of small satellites carries immense promise. These satellites are used for applications ranging from remote sensing t
Social mobility reveals the degree to which an individual’s starting point in life determines their chances in the future, and therefore the extent to which talent is rewarded with opportunity. A stronger association between one’s starting point and their outcomes in adulthood, indicates lower social mobility and less meritocracy. For India, realising the potential of its population will be a key driver of progress and growth. This brief expl
Social protection is crucial in tackling extreme poverty and ensuring equitable development, thus catalysing the transition to a more stable and robust economy. About 50 percent of India’s economy hinges on its informal workers, who comprise 90 percent of the country’s total workforce. Yet, these informal workers continue to be excluded from current social-protection schemes, leaving them with no social or financial safety net and trapping th
Despite testing and confirming the acquisition of Kinetic Energy Weapons (KEW)—an integral part of strategic defence systems that are an alternative to nuclear warheads—India remains in need of a more robust military space programme. The country’s principal rival in the space military arena, China, has significantly more expansive and diverse capabilities. Although KEWs as part of its counter-space programme are not a panacea for India’s
India appears to have successfully climbed into the category of a nuclear "have," overcoming the divisions enshrined in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and enforced fervently by its adherents. However, as India prepares to argue its case for entering the export control regimes, it will find that the new "status" will bring contentious new issues, which will demand careful consideration.
South Africa’s Covid-19 responses are marred by policy paradoxes. How does a country with one of the most sophisticated health systems in Africa account for the highest number of Covid-19 fatalities? This brief argues that contemporary approaches to South Africa’s social, domestic, and foreign policy responses should be viewed through the theoretical lenses of racial capitalism—a racially hierarchical political economy constituting war, mil
President Pervez Musharraf is doing what he likes to do best: promote himself. The week saw him on a whirl-wind tour of Europe--Belgium, France and Britain-addressing the media and others.
The series of bomb blasts killed 48 people between February 2 and 4 marred the Diamond Jubilee celebrations of the Sri Lanka's Independence from the British rule... The celebrations, held at Galle Greens in full public view despite repeated threats, were also marred by party politics when opposition parties including UNP, JVP and TNA refused to be a part of the procession.
This week the clash between Sri Lanka's executive and judiciary became public when the former refused to comply with the latter's direction to pass on the benefit of the internationally low oil prices to the customers by bringing down its cost to nearly Rs 100.
Sri Lankan authorities considered 'hilarious' the ceasefire demand put forward by the LTTE, especially when it has only the few fighters left in an area which is less then 60 sq km. This week, LTTE requested the international community to bring
LTTE's operational capabilities, in different dimensions, were hit hard at several places this week. While the Sri Lanka Air Force jets pounded the LTTE¿s communication base with transmitting tower in the north-east of Oddusudan junction, British parliamentarians came down heavily on the group's credit card frauds to fund its terrorist activities.
The crises in Sri Lanka and Pakistan are raising questions about the relevance and the costs of their reliance on the alternative financial system provided by China’s Belt and Road Initiative
South Korea’s Indo-Pacific strategy, released in December 2022, highlights the country’s willingness to engage with the Indo-Pacific concept, shedding the ambiguity of the earlier stance under President Yoon Suk Yeol’s predecessor. This policy step up recognises emerging geopolitical trends that require South Korea to engage with new territories previously overlooked in its strategic radar, such as the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This brief
South Korea’s Moon Jae-in government has adopted what it calls a “New Southern Policy”, and by most accounts, the strategy is aimed at strengthening the country’s relations with India. What is the rationale for South Korea’s current inclination towards India? This brief argues that the ‘China factor’ is playing a key role in this new approach: South Korea wants to diversify its foreign relations as it faces a dilemma over its econom
Global data governance is at a crossroads—intensely contested by nations and industry players seeking to shape rules of the road to benefit their strategic interests. India has placed itself at the heart of the battle, its foreign policy vision fuelled by the principle of ‘data sovereignty’—a broad notion that supports the assertion of sovereign writ over data generated by citizens within a country’s physical boundaries. While this visi
Competing maritime territorial claims in the South China Sea resulting in frequent provocations and standoffs are well-documented. China’s increasingly assertive stance over its claims has led to increased militarisation of the region, making it a potential flashpoint. To better understand the complex SCS question vis-a-vis the extent of, and jurisdiction over this maritime space, this brief explores the distinction between the principl