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The Philippines continues to be embroiled in the overarching regional dynamics of Southeast Asia influenced by the intensifying power competition between its traditional ally, the United States and its largest immediate neighbour, China. Such geopolitical configurations have put significant pressure on the current administration of President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. to steer the Philippines through turbulent waters. Thi
Assumption that tariffs will bring pharmaceutical manufacturing back to US shores is marred by several complexities
Nawaz Sharif's return as the Prime Minister of Pakistan in early June this year marks a signpost from where a more meaningful relationship between India and Pakistan could be forged. The bilateral relationship had of late been mired in mistrust and often meaningless rhetoric. The previous civilian government in Pakistan was paralysed by its own ineptitude. An equally incoherent position in New Delhi has allowed the crucial relationship to drift.
There is an urgent need to focus on key legislations in the real world; expanding internet access in India by ensuring social and technological growth go hand-in-hand; and the complexity of bridging divides between various factions on the issue.
India and the UK have a history of commitment to further educational ties as India is one of the biggest contributors to the British Higher Education system. As of 2019-2020, there are over 53,000 Indians enlisted in the UK educational institutions.
The founder-president of the French Institute of International Relations, Mr. Thierry de Montbrial, has suggested that the United Nations system should and could be rethought as an organization where all governance mechanism could find their coherence.
Suggesting that a trilateral grouping between Punjab, Kashmir and Rajasthan to improve ties with its neighbouring Pakistan provinces, the author says border provinces had shown time and again that they are the most solid bridge between India and Pakistan.
This will be the first after the meeting of BIMSTEC heads of state in Goa on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in 2016.
Nepal President Dr Ram Baran Yadav's India visit last week helped to bring some clarity on New Delhi's current position vis-a-vis the political developments in Nepal. Although the visit came at the height of political tensions back home,
As Nepal sees rising tensions on the political front, New Delhi cannot design temporary solutions which can hardly bring lasting peace in the country.
This brief discusses the character of Nepal’s responses to recurring India-Pakistan conflicts, with a focus on the 2025 military escalation following the Pahalgam terrorist attack. Despite deep-rooted military, cultural, and economic ties with India—including the longstanding recruitment of Nepali Gurkhas into the Indian Army—Nepal’s response has remained anchored in strategic ambiguity, balancing condemnation of terrorism with a delibera
The rail connectivity schemes in the Northeast, if implemented in a timely manner, would possibly achieve what decades of politico-administrative soft power and military hard power struggled to - bring about peace and economic development in a region embroiled in protracted ethnic conflicts.
It likely that Malé will remain sensitive to India’s broad strategic concerns around China, but will likely push also for closer ties to Beijing.
The NATO drawdown from Afghanistan presents new opportunities for long-term collaboration between the US and India. Successful coordination and collaboration during the next two years will do much to bring about a post-2014 Afghan scenario amenable to both our countries and the region at large.
The US threats and its troop presence in South Korea are alleged to have contributed to North Korean insecurity, but its drive to develop more nuclear weaponry cannot be understood without taking into account domestic dynamics. To bring about a genuine change in North Korea's behaviour, its internal dynamics will have to be considered.
Deploying the "national security" argument against reform in the intelligence agencies is a fig leaf for defending cronyism, incompetence, inefficiency, and corruption. A proper regulatory mechanism can only strengthen national security, not weaken it. It is time to bring in facts and lessons from global best practices to this debate.
North Korea is among the states that stand out for their often defiant behaviour, divergent from typical diplomatic niceties and non-compliant with widely accepted international liberal norms and rules. This ‘uniqueness’ is seen, for instance, in the country’s nuclear weapons development programme, which has been the object of global attention since the early 1990s. North Korea has now extended this behaviour to the cyber domain, marked by
Since the early 1990's the nuclear non-proliferation regime, the centerpiece of which is the NPT, has grappled with an increasing number of threshold nuclear weapons states. The most recent case is of Iran which is believed to be pursuing a program for weapons of mass destruction. This is complicated by the fact that the US has a troubled relationship with Iran. This Issue recommends that the US and other western powers adopt a cooperative approa
Nuclear development in Iran has been an issue of great concern, not only to its neighbours in West Asia, but also for the global powers, in the interests of regional and global stability. At present, efforts are being made to find a solution to the crisis. The interim nuclear deal signed between Iran and P5+1 (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and Germany) on 24 November 2013, and the complementary Framework for Coopera
This Issue Brief analyses the possible nuclear and radiological threats that India could face. It also examines the various ways in which these threats could occur and the likely actors inclined to carry them out.
In light of the 2014 NTI Index which ranks India 23rd out of 25 countries with weapons-usable nuclear materials, this issue brief highlights problem areas in the Index and proposes suggestions for improving the Indian nuclear security regime.
The world is experiencing a crucial shift; a new industrial revolution. This time, the colour is green, and the aim is a cleaner, more livable world for future generations. This industrial revolution will require unprecedented access to critical minerals like graphite, cobalt, lithium, and copper, used for some of the most advanced technologies of our time. Many of these minerals are scattered around the globe, and states that do not have the nat
Can we bring ‘nature’ beyond the confines of just protected forests into a city, while allowing the wildlife with it?
This brief analyses the impact of the Christchurch Call to Action, issued to gather countries and technology companies to stop the use of the internet for disseminating violent extremist content. The Call was the result of a summit organised shortly after a terrorist attack in New Zealand in March 2019. This brief finds that the Call lacks clear conceptual definitions and is singularly focused on social media platforms. It also raises questions a
The concept of ‘intelligence’ immediately brings to mind a covert world of spies, secrets, and classified documents. That might have been true in the past, but in the current age, Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) is gaining prominence. OSINT is intelligence based on information that is publicly available and processed by any interested party, and complements traditional intelligence while providing greater situational awareness to a range of
China’s PLA Air Force (PLAAF) has been aiming to acquire strategic and expeditionary capabilities since the Gulf War in 1991, with President Xi Jinping targeting operational proficiency by 2035. The PLAAF has since made strides in hardware, incorporating fourth-generation and stealth fighters into its fleet. It lags in combat experience, however, as well as in operational tactics, military doctrines, and pilot efficiency, particularly when comp
Blue Economy is fast becoming an area of huge interest for African policymakers. Has the rhetoric translated to concrete developmental outcomes? This brief examines the question of how the concept of ‘Blue economy’ should be operationalised nationally and regionally in Africa. It highlights strategic entry points that should be driven by both public and private sectors and supported by South-South cooperation: the development of ports, promot
In March 2023, the foreign ministers of India, Japan, Australia, and the US (that form the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad) announced the establishment of a working group on countering terrorism. While the urgency of counterterrorism cooperation may have arguably faded in political debate in recent years, it remains steady in military-to-military cooperation at the bilateral and multilateral levels. In a fast-changing glo
Apart from his participation in the SCO Defence Ministers' meeting in China's Qingdao, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is likely to meet his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun, possibly to restart the China-India military hotline.
Since being initiated by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe formally in 2016, Tokyo’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision has become the preferred framework for diplomatic engagement among like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific. This paper undertakes an assessment of FOIP. The motivation is threefold: first, it creates an understanding of Tokyo’s vision of maintaining a stable global order; second, because FOIP has become inclusive—it
The SAARC should plan a billion dollar Infrastructure Fund for developing water and energy projects in areas with high unemployment and poverty rates, a ORF Policy Brief issued on the eve of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee¿s visit to Islamabad to attend the 12th SAARC Conference.
सर्वेक्षण के साथ अंतरराष्ट्रीय मामलों में सजग भारतीयों की रुचि यह दर्शाती है कि भारत के समक्ष चुनौतियों को लेकर उनमें और खासकर युवाओं में गहरी समझ है. आने वाले समय में उनके
Experts from the BRICS countries and Germany discussed in Delhi 'Supply Side Economics and the Need for Energy Diversification'; 'The Future of Global Energy Systems'; 'Industrial Efficiency and Business Responsibility' and 'Energy Access in BRICS Nations'.
Over the last 30 years, digital innovation has been met with vacillating opinions on whether technology is emancipatory or tends to benefit those with political and/or economic power. In the context of innovations in AI in the early 2020s, this brief tackles the question: In a digital age, what is new in who exercises power over whom? It focuses on the power of States in relation to both citizens and territory, and outlines four areas where funda
Lebanon backed by Britain and France introduced the UN resolution on Libya, supported by the US. What next? Not quite clear except that a huge question mark has been placed on the future of east Libyan oil reserves, rather like the one on Kirkuk in Iraq's Kurdish north.
In May 2016, the Health Secretaries of the States and Union Territories of India gathered in the capital and issued “The Delhi Commitment on Sustainable Development Goals for Health”. Among others, the document acknowledged the need to invest in health data collection, analysis and research so that these can properly inform government policies and strategies necessary to address the various challenges facing India’s healthcare. Such commitm
Digitalisation has the potential to boost local economies and people’s quality of life. However, citizens’ mistrust can prevent large-scale adoption and slow the public innovation curve. This brief categorises public mistrust into three groups and highlights examples. It proposes a cultural framework comprising a number of key actions that public administrations can implement to enhance communication and foster citizen engagement in digitalis
The Modi Government is reportedly trying to bring a legislation which will overhaul the antiquated bankruptcy law. Now whether the government will succeed or face the same obdurate tyranny of numbers as recent other reform bills remains a matter of conjecture.
Blue carbon ecosystems, despite covering less than 2 percent of the total ocean surface, account for nearly 50 percent of carbon burial in marine sediments. They provide many other co-benefits too, especially for Global South countries where they aid in food security, income generation, and disaster risk reduction. However, blue carbon ecosystems are rapidly degrading, and financing for their protection and restoration remains insufficient as the
Waziristan last month ostensibly to hunt down al Qaida and Talibanelements has been a visible failure which could dramatically alterthe already existing fault lines in the force divided betweenloyalty to Musharraf, nation and religion.South Waziristan is one of the seven areas -Khyber, Kurram,Orakzai, Mohmand, Bajaur, North and South Waziristan - which wereclubbed together as the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)by the British who wanted
There are several problems with the story as it has been put out and many of these have been listed in the internet or in newspapers. But what the incident does seem to bring out is the continuing dysfunction of our intelligence system and the high levels of incompetence in matters of national security.
This brief examines the expanding China-Pakistan strategic alliance in the domain of grey-zone warfare, defined as the space between neither full-scale war nor peace. The analysis draws on 4th-century BCE statesman, Kautilya’s concept of Tushnim Yuddha (silent war) to contextualise the grey-zone approach within an indigenous framework. It examines how Pakistan utilises state-backed proxies, information warfare, and other tools of grey-zone warf
The current discourse on the creation of new provinces in Pakistan reflects the limitations of the nation's political structures and social fabric.
Pakistan, over the past six decades, has been the recipient of repeated bailout packages from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The 2024 IMF programme is the country’s 24th. While the loan provided temporary financial relief, Pakistan failed to use the opportunity to implement structural reforms, such as expanding the tax base and addressing chronic political instability. Austerity measures, as required in the IMF bailout plan, have only e
Pakistan's PPP-led government failed to end the domination of the military over the government, much less bring the military machine, particularly the army, under the government's control. A huge percentage of the country's budget is allocated to the military.
Khan’s possible ouster is unlikely to bring any radical change in India-Pakistan relations. The bilateral relationship has plateaued since PTI came to power.
Just as Lebanon's capital Beirut was under the thumb of an unbridled reign of crime, terrorism, sectarian and religious fundamentalism in the 1980s, Pakistan's port city of Karachi has hit headlines for all the wrong reasons during the decade of the 1990s.
It is possible that, unable to control the various jihadis in their country or control events in Afghanistan, Pakistan's military rulers will first try to blame India for all its troubles and then launch a diversionary jihadi attack to provoke a reaction from the Indians and bring the whole world into play.
The combination of dangerous delusions, soaring ambitions and a fatal nuclear obsession could spark another round of strategic brinkmanship in South Asia, with disastrous consequences for regional security. Navy is supposed to be the new domain for another round of brinkmanship