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Other than dangling a cheque book, Beijing seems risk averse and has few answers to long-standing geopolitical flashpoints

Bilateral relations between China and Bangladesh will strengthen further once the road and rail links are established between the two countries through Myanmar. The prospects for the road-rail links have brightened after Myanmar cleared the transit facility, the Chinese envoy for Bangladesh has said.

This brief makes an assessment of the data-sharing arrangement between China and India as outlined in the Memorandum of Understanding for sharing hydrological information on the Brahmaputra river system, aimed at facilitating advance warning for floods in India during monsoon. Using hydro-meteorological data, this brief assesses the arrangement and identifies its limitations, primary of which is the wrong choice for the location of measuring stat

India-China relations appear to be showing signs of easing, particularly with successive high-level exchanges between the two governments since late 2024. Given the positive momentum in bilateral ties in the past few months, there is cautious optimism in certain quarters that some kind of détente might be on the anvil. Against this backdrop, this brief surveys a sampling of current domestic discourse in China around issues related to India. It f

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is central to the country’s ambitious policy reorientation. The energy sector accounts for nearly 40 percent of all investments under the BRI, with significant geostrategic and geoeconomic implications. In recent years, China has adopted a “greening the BRI” strategy, emphasising green energy projects. This brief analyses China’s BRI investments in the energy sector to establish the potential trend

Over the last two decades, China has established a significant economic presence in most African countries. Its lucrative economic investment package, flexible political approach, and focused big-ticket development projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) provide an ostensibly massive opportunity to African countries. However, the unilateral nature of the initiative, the lack of transparency and accountability to African countries, and t

Tweaking BRI policy to allay fears of reluctant countries

This brief evaluates the state and development of China’s cruise missile capabilities, specifically that of its air-launched and ground-launched missile forces. It finds that China has developed a formidable inventory of cruise missiles, which poses a threat to India’s own military infrastructure.  The brief lays out the imperative for India: to build up its long-range cruise missile forces. It argues that India’s current capabilities woul

China’s growing military profile in Africa is following its economic footprint in the continent as exemplified by the Chinese “logistics support base” in Djibouti. It is moving towards an ever more expansive definition of its global interests, as its business in Africa pushes it to create new mechanisms for securing those interests, including its own growing military footprint abroad. This brief examines the changing nature of China’s inv

In October 2019, China’s Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Mauritius opened the Chinese market to Mauritian exporters and investors. Not long after, concerns arose that Mauritius might be lacking in the capacity to benefit significantly from the agreement and thus lose in terms of a trade imbalance that clearly favours China. This brief revisits China’s motivations for the FTA, and finds economic and geopolitical goals. Given Mauritius’s smal

China is extending its hand to Nepal, India’s Himalayan neighbour, which for its part is understandably attracted to the prospects that are emerging on its Northern front. How does China’s expanding footprint in Nepal affect India? This brief examines the possibilities for India’s success in competing with China in Nepal, and posits two overarching factors: New Delhi’s overall capacity to challenge China, and India’s political will to a

Since the assumption of Xi Jinping to the post of General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 2013, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone numerous changes, both in its modernisation and organisation, that are meant to ensure that the PLA forces will be battle-ready. The modernisation aims for the PLA to acquire the latest technology and logistics for quick and decisive victories in any theatre of battle. This brief exa

Since the assumption of Xi Jinping to the post of General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 2013, the People’s Liberation Army has undergone numerous changes, both in its modernisation and organisation, that are meant to ensure that the PLA forces will be battle-ready. The modernisation aims for the PLA to acquire the latest technology and logistics that can lead the military to quick and decisive victories in any theatre of ba

China’s nuclear weapons arsenal has grown and modernised over the recent years, and current estimates say the country has 350 operational warheads ready for delivery, over 248 land-based ballistic missiles, and 72 sea-based ballistic missiles. China also has 20 nuclear gravity bombs and additional warheads intended to be armed on land- and sea-based missiles. This brief outlines a history of China’s nuclear weapons programme, scrutini

In recent years, the United States (US)—under both the Donald Trump 1.0 and Joe Biden administrations—has resorted to a technology-denial regime to deprive China of advanced know-how that could give it any military advantage. During Trump’s first presidential term, he levied tariffs that led to a trade war, prompting China to respond with retaliatory tariffs and currency depreciation. Anticipating Trump’s possible return, China began deve

The annual parliamentary sittings of China’s National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference—usually held at the same time—are important political events, with speeches of leaders at the meetings reflecting the country’s policy trajectory. During the last sessions of both in March 2023, President Xi Jinping noted that western countries led by the United States (US) are seeking to “contain and en

Sharp power—a state's attempt to alter the behaviour of other countries through the manipulation of culture, education systems, and the media to further its interests—is a key tool of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Issues related to regime legitimacy and the CCP's development priorities have shaped China's sharp power approach. In the Xi Jinping era, there is some anxiety in the party ranks that external conditions are turning aga

Three months since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak of COVID-19 as a pandemic, the health crisis has wreaked havoc on people’s lives and livelihoods across the globe. Can state responsibility be apportioned for the pandemic, under the current international legal system? What would the elements of such responsibility be? This brief explores the concept of “state responsibility” under public international law and exam

Vivek Mishra, “China’s Tech Challenge: Assessing Biden’s Response,” ORF Issue Brief No. 649, July 2023.

This brief aims to examine one of China’s possible responses to the various extremist and terrorist activities that plague the internal security of Pakistan, given the necessity of securing its USD 62 billion investment in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Given that Pakistan is failing to control this problem, China will have to take measures of its own to secure CPEC. The response of China could possibly be inspired by its strateg

It is being argued that since 2024, China-India relations have shown signs of easing, with frequent high-level interactions.

Since the onset of the twenty-first century, China has employed various instruments of exchange diplomacy to overcome its historical 'century of humiliation’ and realise its 'Middle Kingdom’ dream. Riding on the platform of the Belt and Road Initiative, China has leveraged its strong economy and large human resources through tourism, education, and sister-city arrangements to strengthen people-to-people contact between its citizens, diaspora,

Disruptive communication technologies are helping reshape global dynamics by empowering marginalised populations and prioritising public opinion over traditional military hard power. At the same time, however, these technologies are also creating opportunities for groups to clandestinely and remotely influence public sentiment and monitor, control, and assert their preferred narratives. This brief discusses the case of China, which has been worki

In Beijing, the overwhelming question a visitor faces is: What will be the outcome of the visit of Prime Minister Narendra Modi? Will he bring a package to resolve the border question, or will he come with a basket of measures to attract Chinese investment in India?

With the World Bank punishing Bangladesh by withdrawing support to $3 billion multipurpose bridge over River Padma, Dhaka is hoping that China will step into the breach. Could India pit ch in too? Or Delhi and Beijing collaborate on a transformative economic venture in Banglade sh, setting a new basis for regional cooperation?

The relative prosperity being recorded by the countries of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC)[1] is being confronted by multidimensional challenges brought about by climate change, including in public health. This brief examines the role of regional cooperation in mitigating these negative consequences of global warming. Analysing the national health policies of BIMSTEC countries, this bri

Global warming threatens lives and livelihoods across the Bay of Bengal region. With about nine million people living in low-lying coastal areas in these littoral countries, it is important to understand the changes in key climate variables in the region—primary of which is sea-level rise—and examine the states’ response measures. This brief describes the strategies being taken by countries of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral

Corruption has plagued India’s political and corporate landscape since Independence. In the United Kingdom (UK), Deferred Prosecution Agreements (DPAs) have proved to be an effective measure in combating corporate corruption. In the context of parallels between British and Indian laws, this report seeks to analyse the feasibility of applying a DPA system in India. It examines DPAs and their potential in India, and highlights the challenges in i

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) appears to be gaining momentum in formulating collective strategies to combat non-traditional security threats in the subregion. This brief describes how BIMSTEC had focused on bilateralism or trilateralism from its inception in 1997 until 2015, thereby failing to pursue a more comprehensive and long-term approach to addressing the common threats to their

The last few decades have witnessed a rise in the use and accumulation of data, often called ‘the oil of the 21st century’. Meanwhile, existing laws and regulations are inadequate in dealing with these changing data consumption patterns; this is true for India. Wrongdoings by tech companies can often go unpunished, including predatory pricing, abuse of dominance, and exclusionary conduct. This brief discusses India’s antitrust laws and regu

Confidence-building measures (CBMs) were first developed in the context of Western international relations as a means of ensuring norm diffusion between adversarial states. While South Asian states have also turned to CBMs to minimise hostilities, the literature on their impact has been limited. This brief fills the gap by examining the influence of CBMs between India and Pakistan, and India and China, on norm diffusion in the region. The brief c

This forward-looking brief examines India’s economic reforms over the past decade and argues that in his third term, Prime Minister Narendra Modi would need to shift gears. Working to his advantage is the expectation of political and policy continuity. This must now be tempered by the slightly weaker political mandate. In the past 10 years, Modi moved the reforms needle with his dexterous stance; he now needs to work with a new idea—that of c

This brief traces the history of the development and deployment of conventional submarines. It analyses their shortcomings and examines how these have been progressively addressed over the years, particularly in the realm of battlefield transparency. Greater stealth, long-range weapons and large weapon loads, when coupled with accurate positional information of targets, have improved the combat capability of modern conventional submarines, narrow

Conducting foreign policy in an evolving geopolitical environment—shaped by global, structural transformations—requires forward-looking, strategic thinking. To navigate these transnational changes and capitalise on emerging opportunities, states need a compass. As an organising principle for foreign policy, Grand Strategies serve this purpose. They align resources, instruments, and actions, considering the potential trajectories of global tra

The biggest concern about the BRI is that it is a means of cementing Chinese economic hegemony and, in the process, challenges the foundations of the extant liberal economic order.

The pending Companies Bill provides for in an increase in the corporate funding to political parties from 5% to 7.5% of the average net profits. This increase is despite the fact that the presence of strong corporate funding laws has not hindered companies to squeeze out crores in bribes.

This Issue Brief seeks to outline the history of corporate funding in India, legislation governing corporate funding, institutional innovations in corporate funding like electoral trusts, and international experiences and their relevance in the Indian context. Given the increasing clamour for transparent and accountable corporate funding of political parties, the Brief also explores the perils of over-reliance on corporate funding.

This brief analyses the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY), launched in 2016 to provide cooking gas to 80 million poor rural households of India. It uses the ‘Well-being Analysis’ framework to analyse the scheme beyond traditional economic measures and widen the focus to include improvements in people’s overall life. The path-breaking policy initiative was envisioned to reduce dependency on traditional methods of cooking that use pollutin

Drone or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) technology has become more accessible and affordable in recent years, and their increasing long-range capability, endurance, and applications, have made them integral for both civilian and military uses. At the same time, malicious elements such as criminal networks, drug smuggling syndicates and terrorist organisations, have exploited the technology to aid their activities. For India, the increase

The COVID-19 pandemic can serve as an opportunity for India to redefine its approach to economic growth. The policy objective should be that once the threat of the current pandemic subsides, the country will not return to business-as-usual mode and rather build an economy for the future. The Indian government has declared that it is considering measures towards distress mitigation, relief disbursement, and a revival of growth. At the same time, h

Across the globe, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a massive impact on food and nutrition security. Efforts to meet Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2 on Zero Hunger have been stalled, and it is estimated that an additional 137 million people faced acute food insecurity as 2020 ended. The reasons are many: interrupted food supply chains, high levels of unemployment, loss of incomes, and rising food cost. Climate change and the resultant extreme we

The human toll of the COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating. At the same time, measures to tackle the crisis have affected national economies and grounded global trade to a halt. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) such as the Seychelles are amongst the countries that have suffered some of the worst economic impacts of the outbreak. The current situation illustrates the global state of unpreparedness for a pandemic and points to similar inadeq

The gig economy is part of a crucial transformation occurring in India’s work landscape, and ride-hailing companies are examples of platforms on which “gigs” can be found. The Indian ride-hailing market was projected to grow by 15.5 percent until 2023; the COVID-19 pandemic, however, has disrupted the trajectory. The drivers of these companies—numbering approximately four million—are considered as “independent contractors” and thus

Pakistan has been one of the countries worst affected by COVID-19, with the economic disruption caused by the pandemic exacerbating an already existing crisis. This paper discusses how the public health crisis has affected some of the most critical sectors of the Pakistani economy. While the government has implemented some mitigation measures, they are inadequate to counter the impact of the pandemic. The paper analyses the likely fallout of a ne

This brief explores the post-COVID-19 geopolitical order and the challenges facing BIMSTEC in meeting the most pressing needs of its member countries. It argues that strengthening regional organisations such as BIMSTEC will add weight to the counterbalancing of China that is underway. The brief calls on BIMSTEC to shift its priority to sectors like Connectivity, Counterterrorism and Transnational Crimes, as well as upgrading Human Resource, for b

ASEAN presents a very bright instance of how to deal with the situation that holds within itself the potential of being a great example for BIMSTEC.

The race to develop a COVID-19 vaccine is gaining ground in many parts of the world. This brief examines the challenges that India must hurdle to successfully manufacture and distribute a vaccine. It argues for a fair and equitable distribution of vaccine with an aim to save the maximum number of lives. It suggests a multi-parameter model based on age, co-morbidity, income and profession to justify one’s claim for vaccine. The imperative is to

If India wants strategic dividends from arms acquisitions, it must craft its acquisition policy in a prudent manner with the aim of bringing in knowledge that necessitates a higher degree of trust with the US. It should go beyond economics to factor in larger strategic considerations.