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Experience would suggest the best time for Modi to take tough decisions is now when his popularity is at an all time high and his adversaries, both within his party and without, are still shell-shocked. If he can stake out the key elements of the long-awaited second generation reforms, he can spend the balance of his tenure working to implement them.

This special report was written before the 2020 United States presidential elections. Under the incoming Biden administration, the US military withdrawal from Afghanistan is likely to be more gradual and “responsible”, despite the President-elect being in favour of American troops exiting the war-weary country soon. In retrospect, Donald Trump’s insistence on pulling out all US troops from Afghanistan by Christmas 2020 was not misguided, si

Financial health of Indian banks deserves scrutiny. The RBI should strike a careful balance in its policy objectives. Tighter lending norms are unlikely to be a panacea. It must resist the temptation to resort to such short-term fixes.

The Bangladesh interim administration’s announcement in April this year—that it would soon repatriate 180,000 of its 700,000-odd Rohingya refugees back to Myanmar—was quickly hailed as a diplomatic victory. This paper analyses the claim, using semi-structured interviews and thematic analyses of refugee narratives, to highlight its implausibility. It argues that Rakhine State in Myanmar, from which the Rohingyas hail and to which they are ex

Japan’s foreign aid policy towards Myanmar has been an important component of both, its broader approach to Southeast Asia and its Indo-Pacific vision. As one of Myanmar's largest development partners, Japan has consistently supported the country’s infrastructure development and democratic transition efforts, while also providing humanitarian aid. However, Myanmar's protracted political instability, particularly following the 2021 military co

This brief employs text analytics to assess the extent to which speeches at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on matters of peace and security find resonance in resolutions passed by the UN Security Council (UNSC). These two are among the six main organs of the UN system: the UNGA is the main deliberative and representative body; and the UNSC is tasked with maintaining global peace and security. This brief studies four contemporary issue

Europe’s relationship with China has transformed in recent years, with Chinese behaviour and actions now increasingly at odds with European values and interests. As Europe adjusts to new global realities amid a full-fledged war, the European Union (EU) and its member states are recalibrating their strategies and relationships with China. This paper aims to decipher these evolutions by assessing the EU approach and those of certain key European

While there is no doubt that Modi’s outreach has paid us rich dividends, it takes two to tango. The UAE leadership has taken a pragmatic and forward-looking view of the rise of India. It also sees a convergence of interests in standing against religious extremism. As the IPL kicks off, it is important to shed our own stereotypes, to update perspectives and take a fresh look at a country that has emerged as such a vital partner in such a short s

There are two streams of debate on India’s current nuclear doctrine: one on its current interpretation and deducing its form and what such form means for India’s overall nuclear strategy; and another, more internal to India, on what should be the Indian nuclear doctrine with respect to the evolving nature of threats. The two debates are not mutually exclusive. However, neither of them have contended with all conventional contingencies, in par

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has served as a laboratory test to assess the effectiveness of Cyber Warfare (CW) capabilities. It would be misleading, however, to extrapolate sweeping conclusions from this conflict about the relative ineffectiveness of CW. Rather, diligence should be exercised by Indian strategic and military planners in assessing the CW capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) and enhancing

This paper is an outline of existing energy systems - the demand and supply factors and trends seen within the framework of demographic pressures, environmental concerns and eventual possibility of fossil fuels running out.

This paper presents a status report of the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) on two crucial development parameters—inequality and poverty—that have a significant bearing on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs; especially SDG-1 and SDG-10). The paper tracks the origins and movements of absolute and relative poverty, and income and wealth inequality in the BRICS economies over time, highlights the associated cha

While the trip offered a chance to build on cooperation, it also reinforced existing differences between the two countries.

This report examines how India can move from ad-hoc responses to a more reliable system for financing high-cost therapies for rare diseases. It reviews the policy and financing architecture being built around the National Policy for Rare Diseases (2021), including Central support, state responsibilities, tax and duty relief, and the government’s crowdfunding portal. It finds that these elements still do not add up to a predictable pathway for e

The legacy cross-border payment infrastructure is replete with issues of high costs, limited access, low speed, and opaque structures, which have limited the potential of cross-border payments to enhance international trade and foster economic growth in emerging economies. The increased demand for transparent, accessible, faster and cheaper solutions in the financial sector has pushed the private and public sectors to accelerate investments in in

Chinese observers say that the event is meant to be an ultimatum to the Japanese side to retreat, particularly on the Taiwan issue. China hopes that the exhibition of strength will make Japan more restrained and prevent it from taking the "Taiwan's problems are Japan's problems" stance.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been raising the issue of illegal immigration from Bangladesh for a long time now, identifying itself with the “anti-foreigners agitation” in Assam in the 1980s. The party has recently amplified its position, twin-tagging the issue of illegal immigration from Bangladesh with a promise to update the National Register of Citizens, and amend the Citizenship Act to grant citizenship to Hindus, Buddhists, Sikhs

New defense and security cooperation efforts are springing up across the Indo-Pacific, between some Quad members and those outside the grouping.

Even as Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS) promise to revolutionise the battlefield, very little analysis moves beyond the great powers to examine the interests that middle powers may have in these systems. Shaped by their own geostrategic contexts, demographic issues and geography challenges, countries like India, South Korea, Indonesia or the Philippines may find utility in LAWS for improving the efficiency of their forces, reducing both

Bhutan's reported decision to establish diplomatic relations with China marks an end to the system of buffer states that the British Raj had created in the 19th century to secure the subcontinent against encroachments from external powers.

Bhutan, the tiny South Asian country, is a power-house literally. Power constitutes the country's single largest export item. The Himalayan kingdom is located in one of the fastest growing regions of the world.

Since time immemorial, the land that is now Bhutan has been a nation that has limited its interaction with the outside world and discouraged immigrants. This to some extend could be attributed to the nation's tie and linkages with Tibet.

Ties of the Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan with Nepal, Bangladesh and India stand to be boosted. Trade ties with Bangladesh are expected to be intensified with India allowing transit to Bangladesh for trade with Bhutan.

This paper assesses United States (US) presidents Donald J. Trump’s (2017-21) and Joe Biden’s (2021-present) respective records on the India-US technology partnership. During the Trump years, this domain of bilateral cooperation saw the finalisation of foundational agreements, including those on force interoperability, and new precedents on US arms export designations for India. While these agreements pertained mostly to defence technology, t

Focus will be on making US more competitive, rather than blackballing the Dragon

This brief examines India’s defence allocations for 2022-23. It outlines the conceptual and definitional aspects of the defence budget, examines defence allocations from the prism of state of the economy and public finance, and explores the potential impacts of the budget announcements on the defence production sector of the government’s self-reliance mission, Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan. The analysis also utilises a comparison of India’s mi

In 2023, a decade after inaugurating the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Chinese President Xi Jinping convened the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (third BRF) in Beijing. In his Chair’s Statement, he pledged reforms and institutionalisation to address the connectivity initiative’s myriad problems and international criticisms. The third BRF focused on practical cooperation, multimodal connectivity, globalisation of trad

That the Muslims in Bihar turned to Nitish Kumar of Janata Dal (United) despite his alliance with the BJP could well be another turning point in the country's political history. This confirms the extent of Muslim exasperation with the Congress. Nitish Kumar harnessed this disgust deftly.

The BIMSTEC region is among the most vulnerable in the world from increased threat due to climate change. In the foreseeable future, climate change is projected to affect each BIMSTEC member country with greater severity and frequency, thereby impeding their response capacity significantly. This brief explores the vulnerability of the region from climate change and the BIMSTEC-level initiatives that have taken place to address the issue. Although

The Bay of Bengal is highly prone to extreme weather events, many of which result in massive disaster. The sub-regional grouping, BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral and Technical Cooperation), took a long time to begin nurturing their collective capabilities in disaster mitigation. It was only after the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, which caused overwhelming devastation in the region, that BIMSTEC identified the area of ‘Envir

After a hiatus of almost two decades, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) appears poised to once again assume significance in regional affairs. The renewed vigour has already resulted in a fresh agreement on tangible areas of cooperation and ways of resuscitating the organisation. This brief examines the role that will be played by technology and digital skilling in BIMSTEC’s goals toward

This brief is an experienced journalist’s view of how the media should regard the relevance of BIMSTEC, or the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation; and, in turn, how BIMSTEC can utilise the media in making its issues known to the public and the policymakers, in its immediate region and beyond. The brief argues that if BIMSTEC is to become an effective forum for regional cooperation, it should be more o

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is standing on the threshold of a new inning, as it marks its 25th year in 2022. The past months have been momentous for BIMSTEC, as it adopted a charter at the fifth Summit Meeting in March to outline a clearer purpose for the organisation. During the summit, BIMSTEC rationalised its 14 diverse sectors of cooperation into seven core areas of inte

The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) has gained more importance recently because of the many hurdles that have come in the way of the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) since 2016, mainly due to issues between India and Pakistan. This brief explores the possibilities of stronger trade and investment ties between the BIMSTEC nations by expediting the signing of a Free Trade Agreement (F

As BIMSTEC pushes for transport connectivity, it stands to gain from other, complementary transport connectivity projects that are emerging in the region. BIMSTEC can also take advantage of extant policy designs, and aligning its projects with the various national, bilateral and multilateral projects either ongoing or being planned. Given India’s key role in BIMSTEC — owing not only to its geographical location but also its capabilities — i

An audiotape purportedly from Osama bin Laden was aired on the Arabic network Al-Jazeera on January 3,2004. This is the third message exclusively relating to Iraq attributed to him since before the US-led invasion of Iraq by the coalition forces. The first, called a special message to the Iraqi people, was aired on February 11,2003, and the second

If Modi is a strong leader who is bringing greater purposefulness to India's China policy, Xi is even more powerful at home. He has conveyed a strong interest in transforming relations with New Delhi and is willing to explore opportunities with Modi.

India's 16th general elections, billed as the most expensive elections ever, are witnessing an unprecedented flow of black money into country's electoral process. Analysts claim that a mammoth 400 billion rupees, roughly 0.35 percent of India's GDP, has been pumped into the democratic process.

After Independence, none of the national parties - the Congress, the Janata Dal, leave alone the BJP - have ever had anyone other than a Hindu as their supreme political leader. The only recent exception is Sonia Gandhi of the Congress. But even her links into politics are exceptionally pucca, upper caste Hindu.

Terrorism, like almost every other human activity that involves production and creation of goods and services, needs money. Described by experts like Raymond Baker as Gross Criminal Product, this included illegal capital flight, narcotics trade, smuggling of arms and other goods, human trafficking, counterfeiting and computer crimes.

A constitutional court must not outsource its judgement on freedom of expression online to an industry association even if it convenes others to help make this decision. It must also avoid allowing the executive to take over this role, determining without any transparency what content is blocked.

The Indian Ocean is vital to the economies, security and livelihoods of its littoral states. However, the economic and sustainable development issues in the rim are particularly challenging since the countries, with diverse political systems, development status and agendas, are home to one- third of the world’s population that rely extensively on the marine resources for sustenance, thereby subjecting the ocean’s resources to pressures from p

Blue economy’ is the integration of ocean economy development with values of social inclusion and environmental sustainability, along with dynamic and innovative business models. For India, however, blue economy extends beyond being merely an economic and environmental proposition. It presents India with an unprecedented opportunity to meet its national objectives, strengthen connectivity with neighbours, and exert influence in the surrounding

As the threat from climate hazards rise, several global cities have altered their urban planning and design approaches to incorporate nature-driven solutions as a counter to conventional infrastructure practices by harnessing blue elements (for instance, seas, rivers, lakes, wetlands, and water utilities) alongside the green (such as trees, parks, gardens, playgrounds and forests). This paper explores the emerging concept of blue-green in

The January 20, 2012 attacks in Nigeria's northern city of Kano, which left at least 185 police and residents dead, was the biggest attack carried out by Boko Haram, a Sunni extremist group which owed allegiance to al Qaida and called for an Islamist rule.

The slow pace of rail track construction in India is a total contrast to the development across the border. China has already built a 1142 km-long electrified railway line from Golmud to Lhasa. Now it has plans to extend it to Shigatze and Yatung, reaching almost Nathu La pass.