"With the Union Cabinet giving its nod for the creation of the Telangana State, the six-decade-long struggle seems to have come to an end. Probably, there is no other region in India that has fought so long and so bitterly for the statehood other than Telangana. Notwithstanding the political decision in favour of the statehood, which came after a prolonged dithering, there are plenty of roadblocks to the new State. With once inseparable Telugu identity turning soar and emotions reining over reasons, even mundane works of dividing assets and liabilities between the two political entities are going to be very bitter and acrimonious.
Addressing knotty issues
While the announcement of a new State takes a minute, working out the complex modalities for division of resources (including debts), sharing of revenues, division of officers, construction of a new capital are very difficult works that can stretch to many years. Take the case of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Uttarakhand, the three new States created way back in 2000. Even after 13 years of their existence, many knotty issues between them and their parent States still remain unresolved. The most uphill task would be the drawing up of an inventory of assets and liabilities of undivided Andhra Pradesh so that they can be split equitably. Reportedly, Andhra Pradesh has a debt burden of over Rs. 160,000 crore. This is going to be a sore point between the two entities. Similarly, division of civil service is another contentious issue which will not be easy to resolve. Hundreds of employees from Jharkhand are still fighting court battles over their future and have not found any remedies yet.
A potential Cauvery in the waiting!
The sharing of common resources, particularly river waters, is going to be a tricky and explosive issue. Water issues raise strong passions in Telangana, coastal Andhra and the perennially drought-prone Rayalseema. It is noteworthy to mention that coastal Andhra, which is a rice-bowl of the country, heavily depend on the waters of Krishna and Godavari, two big rivers. Telangana being the upper riparian claimant of these rivers is bound to open a new chapter of conflict and contention on existing water sharing arrangement. With growing thirst for water nearly in every region and localities of the country (the nearest case is the ongoing dispute between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu over the Cauvery waters), sharing of waters would be the most arduous challenge.
Apart from water, the bifurcation of the State will have a huge impact on the region’s ongoing infrastructure and irrigation projects. Stakes are high for 54 major irrigation projects involving a budget outlay of Rs. 80.000 crore. For instance, Pranahitha-Chevella mega irrigation project in Telangana with a mammoth budget of Rs. 38,500 crore may suffer because of the transition woes. Another mega project which may be affected is Indirasagar Polavaram, a massive multipurpose irrigation venture which seeks to irrigate 10 lakh acres of land and produce 960 MW of hydel power. This project would submerge hundreds of acres of land in neighbouring Odisha and Chhattisgarh. So, on the land acquisition and project execution level also, there are serious challenges. The bifurcation of the State would politically weaken Andhra in further pushing this controversial project.
Conflict over Hyderabad
The mother of conflicts between Andhra and Telangana will be over Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh’s only globalised city with a population over 7 million population (bigger than National Capital Territory of Delhi in terms of area). This city accounts for a massive 55 per cent of Andhra’s revenue. The city boasts of world class IT and ITeS infrastructure and has been chosen as an ideal place by a host of global firms. The city is also a home to many successful start ups in bio-tech, pharmaceuticals and IT (notably Dr. Reddy Lab, GVK Bio, GMR). It also houses a large number of research and higher education institutions with global reputation. Significantly, Hyderabad alone accounts for 99 per cent of Andhra Pradesh’s exports. Therefore, the loss of Hyderabad will have serious impact on Andhra’s revenues, at least in the near future.
Another serious concern is over the future of the migrant population from the Seemandhra. It is well known that much of Hyderabad’s turnaround in the recent decades was credited to the money and entrepreneurial skills of people from the coastal Andhra. From IT, real estate, bio-technologies, pharmaceuticals to many R&D ventures, coastal Andhra has played a massive role in Hyderabad’s transformation into a global city. Nearly 90 per cent of units in 13 major industrial estates of Hyderabad are owned by the businessmen from the coastal region. Above all, millions of people from coastal Andhra and Rayalseema have chosen the city as their home. Considering the fact that the entire Telangana statehood agitation is over the dominance of people from Seemandhra region in politics, jobs, business (including the Telugu film industry in Hyderabad), it will be interesting to see how this core issue is played out in the theatre of democracy. With regional chauvinism taking its ugly head (K Chandrasekhar Rao asking employees belonging to Seemandhra region to pack up) and vote bank considerations ruling the roost, the life and properties of Seemandhra people is a major concern. It will be interesting to see how the new leadership handles such sensitive and volatile issue with serious ramifications for the new state and its economy. If post-statehood reactions are to be believed, in the event of targeted attacks, discrimination and hostility to their business and infrastructure, the industrial behemoths and business groups have their Plan B ready to pull out their investments. If this happens, Hyderabad may experience its moment of ’capital flight’ with disastrous consequences.
Demand for Rayalseema state
Besides the intricate questions of sharing of resources and securing of the future of Seemandhra migrants in Hyderabad, another big question mark is over the unity of Seemandhra. Creation of Telangana brings the curtain down on language as a unifying element and the idea of "Vishalandhra" for which Sriramulu and hundreds of others became martyrs in the 1950s. With the common Telugu identity losing its relevance and sub-regional identity taking the centre-stage, the demand for further separation is also bound to emerge. In fact, by conceding to the demand of Telangana, the Centre seems to have given a new lease of life to the demand of Rayalseema state. Even before the new state gets any formal legislative approval, politicians and local intellectuals who smell big opportunity from the void have raised the demand for Rayalseema state consisting of the districts of Anantapur, Kadapa, Kurnool and Chittoor. A few of them have gone two steps further, demanding Greater Rayalseema by merging parts of Prakasam and Nellore districts as well. A few of them do not even shy away from merging their districts with Telangana to call it Rayala-Telangana state for apparent benefits. In short, it is raining statehoods in the Andhra region.
Similar as in the case of Telangana, the supporters of Rayalseema state claim that despite political dominance, the region is economically backward (even from Telangana) and remains overshadowed by people from coastal Andhra in nearly all key spheres such as business, education, jobs and entrepreneurship. They further claim that since Rayalseema is a distinct agro-climatic region with distinct culture, cuisine and accent, it should be given statehood. In short, with identity (common language) ceasing to be a uniting factor any longer and sub-regional sentiments and collective insecurities increasingly overshadowing common sense and rationality, holding Seemandhra together would not be an easy task.
Conclusion
With the curtain coming down on post-Independent India’s first linguistic Sate, the region and the country seem to be jostling into another round of battles for new States. With little or no clarity on the rational criteria for new State and the demand to set up a second States Reorganisation Commission (SRC) remaining shelved in the cold storage for far too long with no political party having appetite to bite the bullet, electoral compulsions (which guided the Telangana decision) will dictate this explosive issue with far reaching consequences. And with newer forms of identities taking over the older ones and parochialism and regional chauvinism becoming the new lingo of identity in the age of Twitter and Facebook, time is now ripe for a serious debate on reorganisation of States in India. The country can ill afford to postpone this serious public policy issue.
(The writer is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)
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