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Quantum computing is drowning in hype, putting investor trust at risk. DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative could be the reality check the field needs to stay on course and prove its real-world value
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Quantum computing has garnered steady growth worldwide lately, resulting in a massive rise in global investments. Multiple reasons support these investments, including the myriad of potential technological applications and their inherently dual-use nature. Although this has spurred strategic global competition to acquire the technology early, it has also prompted an increasing amount of unnecessary hype and speculation.
Given the technology’s nascent and complex nature, it has been difficult to segregate speculation from facts. Moreover, a fundamental question remains unanswered: Is it even possible to build a fault-tolerant or fully functioning quantum computer? The Defence Advanced Research Project Agency’s (DARPA) Quantum Benchmarking Initiative aims to address these concerns. It will be instrumental in clearing myths and uncertainties surrounding quantum computing, thereby dictating the future direction the technology will take.
DARPA’s goal is to determine if it is possible to practically build an industrially useful quantum computer much faster than conventional predictions.
In July 2024, DARPA announced its Quantum Benchmarking Initiative (QBI) to benchmark quantum computing applications and algorithms and significantly expand its efforts to validate quantum computer hardware progress. DARPA’s goal is to determine if it is possible to practically build an industrially useful quantum computer much faster than conventional predictions. The QBI builds on two existing DARPA programmes: Quantum Benchmarking and Underexplored Systems for Utility-Scale Quantum Computing (US2QC). The former aims to determine the comparative advantage offered by a fully functioning quantum computer and what it can provide that a classical computer does not. The latter seeks to answer whether building an industrially useful fault-tolerant quantum computer is possible. QBI combines the software and application focus of Quantum Benchmarking and the quantum computing hardware-validation focus of US2QC.
To achieve this goal, in September 2024, DARPA hosted a proposers day, wherein it invited companies planning to build an industrially useful quantum computer by 2033, to provide funding alongside an unbiased and Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V), while also ‘aggressively communicating’ successful results to the United States (US) government agencies interested in utilising or acquiring this technology. Post selection, the QBI will proceed in three stages: Stage A (6 months) will focus on the performer’s USQC concept, Stage B (12 months) will focus on examining the performer’s baseline research and development (R&D) plan, and Stage C (variable, but nominally 36 months) will determine if a USQC can be constructed and designed as intended, following a rigorous IV&V process.
Source: DARPA
In April 2025, DARPA announced that it had selected 18 companies (15 announced plus 3 in negotiation) for Stage A of the QBI. These include companies pursuing virtually all currently known types of qubit technologies, including Atom Computing (neutral atoms), Diraq (semiconductor spin qubits), IBM (superconducting qubits), IonQ (trapped ions), and Xanadu (photonic qubits). Additionally, DARPA is negotiating with Microsoft and PsiQuantum for the final phase of the USQC programme, which, similar to Stage C of QBI, aims to validate and co-design an industrially useful quantum computer.
While the hype around quantum computing is certainly warranted, it is often blown out of proportion. This arises occasionally due to a lack of fundamental understanding of the field. However, more often, this is a consequence of corporations obfuscating or misrepresenting facts to influence the stock market and raise capital. In February 2025, Microsoft announced its ‘Majorana 1’ chip, which it claimed would significantly accelerate the quantum computing development cycle. This led to stock prices rising for many quantum computing companies and startups. Within a matter of weeks, however, these assertions faced severe challenges. Microsoft had made similar assertions regarding Majorana qubits in 2017, which it retracted later in 2021. Similar claims of so-called ‘quantum advantage’ have been made by corporations such as IBM, Google, and D-Wave. Virtually all of these have been subsequently refuted by researchers. This has raised questions about the intentions behind such claims.
Within the Venture Capital (VC) community, startups are now exploiting the rhetoric around quantum computing simply to make quick profits. In this context, it becomes essential to cite a representative example.
Several startups claim to use quantum Artificial Intelligence (AI), a technology yet to become practically applicable due to severe practical constraints.
Most quantum computing applications for VCs currently qualify as ‘vaporware,’ a technology without much practical utility or application. It is natural to ask how quantum computing startups procure their funding. One way to do this is to create hype around an incipient technology such as quantum computing to attract VC investment, a lot of which comes from government funding or, in other words, taxpayer money. Furthermore, several of these establishments propagate the myth that quantum physics is impossible to understand, thereby further spreading confusion and hype around the technology. For instance, several startups claim to use quantum Artificial Intelligence (AI), a technology yet to become practically applicable due to severe practical constraints.
Subsequently, these firms use shell companies like special-purpose acquisition companies, which can be easily listed on major stock exchanges thanks to their ability to dodge some of the vetting in the Initial Public Offering (IPO) process, only to merge with the startup later. Once the stock reaches its pinnacle, company executives short-sell it and reap the benefits while the rest of the investors are left to bear the losses. While increased regulatory scrutiny has essentially uprooted this scheme, several startups did exploit it in the name of innovation in quantum computing.
This is not to say that all companies and startups indulge in this deception. Several of them are engaging in groundbreaking research and genuinely striving towards the future applications of quantum computing. However, there is a pressing need for clarity and clear pathways concerning quantum computing if investor trust is to be maintained.
Quantum computing is at a critical juncture. Whether it reaches its promised potential or disappears into the annals of history, much like its many preceding technologies, will be decided in the coming years.
If it becomes practically applicable, quantum computing will bring a seismic shift in society, completely transforming areas such as medicine, finance, agriculture, energy, and the military, to name a few. Nonetheless, this enormous potential has resulted in rampant hype around it, while concomitantly resulting in the proliferation of bad actors seeking to take advantage of a technology not necessarily well understood by the general public. On the other hand, negativity around the technology can also cause the pendulum to swing in the other direction. For instance, Nvidia’s Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Jensen Huang, recently stated that useful quantum computers are likely decades away, which led to a severe plunge in quantum computing stocks.
Quantum computing is at a critical juncture. Whether it reaches its promised potential or disappears into the annals of history, much like its many preceding technologies, will be decided in the coming years. As such, a transparent and sincere approach in quantum computing research leading to practically useful applications will inspire confidence among the masses, while false and half-baked claims will deter investments in the field, eventually leading to its inevitable demise.
DARPA’s QBI assumes supreme importance. It can play a pioneering role in dispelling myths around quantum computing while ensuring it progresses steadily along the most viable avenues.
Therefore, DARPA’s QBI assumes supreme importance. It can play a pioneering role in dispelling myths around quantum computing while ensuring it progresses steadily along the most viable avenues. This should also inspire other nations, such as India, which are actively pursuing quantum technology, to launch similar quantum benchmarking initiatives to establish firm pathways for developing quantum computing.
Prateek Tripathi is a Junior Fellow at the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology, at the Observer Research Foundation
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Prateek Tripathi is a Junior Fellow at the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology. His work focuses on emerging technologies and deep tech including quantum technology ...
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