Maldives: After defence pact with US, India needs to check over-crowding of Indian Ocean strategic space
N Sathiya Moorthy
After the recent Maldives-US defence pact, though between two friendly nations, India may have to consider the medium and long-term implications of the possible over-crowding of the neighbourhood strategic space in the Indian Ocean. In the immediate context, however, the loud silence of jailed former President Abdulla Yameen’s Opposition PPM-PNC combine to the US pact has exposed his camp to being anti-India for the sake of being one. Or, is he playing the ‘China card’ of his regime days, still?
Titled the Framework for U.S. Department of Defence-Maldives Ministry of Defence: Defence and Security Relationship “sets forth both countries’ intent to deepen engagement and cooperation in support of maintaining peace and security in the Indian Ocean, and marks an important step forward in the defence partnership”. Maldivian Defence Minister Mariya Didi, on a private visit,
signed the pact with Reed Werner, the US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for South and South-East Asia, at Philadelphia, on 10 September, according to a US Department of Defence statement.
Werner and Didi also “agreed to work toward scheduling the first Defence and Security Dialogue. Both sides reiterated their commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific that promotes the security and prosperity of all nations in the region”, the release said a couple of days later. The “Framework outlines a range of bilateral activities, including “senior-level dialogues, discussions, engagements and opportunities in areas such as maritime domain awareness, natural disasters and humanitarian relief operations”, the statement added, without details.
The American statement quoted Minister Didi as saying that the “Defence & Security Relationship will add immense value to the excellent US-Maldives partnership defined by shared principles & interests in peace & security of the Indo-Pacific & IOR amid rising threats like piracy & terrorism”. She tweeted that the agreement was “an important milestone in defence and security co-operation between the US and Maldives”.
Shelved SOFA
Long before the Framework agreement, the US had offered the ‘Status of Forces Agreement’
(SOFA) draft to then President Mohammed Waheed Hassan Manik in 2012-13. Waheed had replaced duly-elected predecessor Mohammed Nasheed, now Parliament Speaker, who quit in the face of a joint Opposition protest.
Coming in the footsteps of the
low-profile ACSA (Acquisition and Cross-Services Agreement) that the Nasheed government had signed while in office (2008-12), a leaked draft indicated that SOFA would allow US troops to carry personal weapons on and exempt them local laws and courts on Maldivian territory. Under ‘nationalist’ pressures, Maldives shelved SOFA. Incidentally, the US’ offer of a Framework Agreement/SOFA to Maldives’
Sri Lankan neighbour is pending Colombo’s decision.
Incidentally, the 2013 SOFA plan threatened to upset India-US relations after US Assistant Secretary of State Robert O
Blake claimed that Washington was ‘transparent’ with New Delhi in the matter, and was ‘consulting’ them. It was learnt that the ‘consultation’, if it was one, was not at appropriate levels. Because the pact did not materialise, nothing more was said or heard.
Self-righteous protestation
Now the Yameen camp’s silence on the US defence pact has caused eyebrows to raise nearer home and intrigued the diplomatic community. Fireworks were anticipated, given their self-righteous ‘nationalist’ protestations that caused the exit of the Indian infra major
GMR Group through Nasheed-Waheed transition. More recently, his camp launched an
‘India Out’ campaign, with pictures of Indian soldiers with the Tricolour, asking Indian military’s helicopter pilots and technical personnel to leave.
Since his presidential days, the Yameen camp’s professed demand was for India to
take back the two gifted helicopters and call back its Navy/Coast Guard personnel. In this background, and also given the 2013 SOFA experience, the expectation was for the Yameen camp to oppose the US pact, anticipating American boots on Maldivian soil, some day.
This has raised questions if the Yameen camp’s opposition is only to Indian neighbour’s long-term commitment and continuing contributions to the archipelago-nation’s all-round development
vis a vis the China-funded projects under his regime. As is known, the
multi-focussed India aid programme, under the incumbent government of President Ibrahim ‘Ibu’ Solih, focusses as much on creating social and societal infrastructure as on the nation’s
largest infra project in the $ 400-m, 6.7-km, Male-Thillafushi sea-bridge.
Referring to the Yameen camp’s ‘India Out’ campaign, Maldivian Foreign Minister Abdulla
Shahid recently said that they felt threatened by the numerous India-aided projects. ”To say in modern terms, they simply cannot ‘digest’ the fact. We will not stand by (and let their words affect us}… The relationship between Maldives and India is special,” he reiterated one more time.
India Pact, 2018
The Yameen government had signed an ‘Indo-Maldivian
Action Plan for Defence’ in July 2018, months before he lost re-election. The agreement envisaged a defence secetary-level institutional mechanism to further bilateral cooperation, comprising development of ports, continuous training, capacity- building, equipment-supply and maritime surveillance to Maldives. Prime Minister Narendra Modi then reiterated that "India understands its role as a net security-provider in the region".
In context, an Indian view on the new Maldives-US agreement may have to be drawn from Prime Minister Modi’s expressed view. It’s another matter his was also a reiteration of predecessor Manmohan Singh’s application of the
‘net-provider’ phrase to the entire neighbourhood, implying a national consensus.
The 2018 India pact came months after New Delhi set a neighbourhood precedent by
publicly criticising the Yameen leadership for anti-democracy initiatives, through a series of statements from the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). India questioned President Yameen proclaiming Emergency after the nation’s Supreme Court, on 1 February, ordered freedom for all ‘political prisoners’, including Nasheed, who was in self-exile.
The timing then coincided also with the peaking of Yameen’s demand for India to take back the two gift helicopters. Two years down the line, under the MDP-led Solih Government, the Indian choppers remain on Maldivian soil, continuing
humanitarian operations, like shifting emergency patients from distant islands to hospitals in population-centres.
Check-mate, China?
In between, media reports have claimed that Maldives is under
increasing pressure from China to part with an island, just as neighbouring Sri Lanka ended up handing over the
Hamabantota Port, in the face of mounting debt. Speaker Nasheed, a vociferous critic of China projects, pointing to a hidden debt-trap,
reiterated his known position: “Can these assets produce enough revenue to pay back the debt? The business plan of none of these projects has any indication to suggest that it will be able to pay back the loan.”
Chinese Ambassador Zhang Lizhong in Male has dismissed Nasheed’s allegations. “China never imposes additional requirements to the Maldivian side or any other developing country, which they do not want to accept or against their will,” BBC, which ran the story, quoted him as saying The Maldivian Government has not responded, yet.
Given the increasing Chinese assertiveness in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), a section of the Indian strategic community sees a hidden New Delhi hand in the Maldives-US defence pact. Some have read further meanings in the immediate context of the ongoing land-border issues and skirmishes between the two Asian powers.
The general drift of independent American or other non-Chinese extra-regional powers in India’s Ocean neighbourhood may be welcome for New Delhi in ways. Over the post-Cold War decades, New Delhi has been signing IOR-centric defence cooperation pacts with a host of nations, from the US, Australia and Japan (within the four-nation Quad and outside), and also France -- with the UK and Russia possibly following in months. More recently, Germany distanced itself from China and has begun talking in terms of the Indo-Pacific.
Viewed from India’s China perspective, there is a real possibility of the neighbourhood Indian Ocean waters getting over-crowded sooner or later with defence pacts and multiple navies criss-crossing one another. The nation’s immediate Ocean neighbour, Sri Lanka, has only recently reiterated its continuing commitment to Colombo’s ‘
India First’ non-aligned foreign policy.
More than non-regional nations, India is faced with China’s physical, though ‘non-military’ (?) presence, in the Ocean-facing Hambantota for the next nearly hundred years. Yet, New Delhi has to check against independent ‘friendly intrusion’ by non-regional friends, if it has to reclaim India’s ‘traditional sphere of influence’. Even in times of Chinese détente, India’s non-regional friends may initiate measures in their ‘supreme national self-interest’, which can otherwise stir up and middy the Indian Ocean water.
Myanmar: Covid-19 second wave deadlier than the first?
Sreeparna Banerjee
When Myanmar was slowly planning to return back to normal, the sudden rise of Covid-19 pandemic cases has resulted in a quite disastrous situation. The current figure stands at
4870 cases with 81 deaths as on 19 September 2020. The first local transmission was reported in the Rakhine state on 16 August. Since then, the number of infections has quadrupled. This has led to the renewed policy of stay-at-home and has instilled fresh fear in the hearts of the citizens.
In the current situation, the word is that this second wave is deadlier since it has already infected few thousands of people in a very short of time. Another rationale for unease is the amplifying numbers of death toll.
Incidentally, a number of factors can make the second wave worse. For instance, transformation in the living habits of people, low level of immunity and
specific mutation in the virus strains. The slackening of preventive measures by people has been considered as one of the major reasons for the spread.
In June, the nation had begun easing some of its Covid-19 restrictions. Restaurants, hotels and schools reopened. Domestic travel resumed, though there are prohibitions on visiting religious sites. However, it has been observed that for past few weeks, people have been going about with their usual
course without wearing masks, or adhering to the social distancing norms. Due to the relaxation of flights, tourists also began entering the territory.
While warnings were cited throughout the nation to caution people of penal measures if they do not adhere to the preventive measures, even by the State counsellor on her social media handle, people seem not to pay much heed to the advices. After a gap of around a month after July, the virus contacted a young man on 16 August in Rakhine with proper symptoms of Covid and then on began spreading of the virus.
New epi-centre
Sittwe, the capital of the Rakhine state, has become the epicenter of the new wave. Rakhine has been engulfed in the internal strife for quite some time. Despite the pandemic remains at its peak throughout the world for past few months, the fight between the Arakan army and Tatmadaw has been going on, creating more internally displaced individuals and damages to properties and lives.
If we look closely, Rakhine is the second poorest state in Myanmar. It has feeble health facilities coupled with non-availability of health personnel in some socio-economic quarters.
The Rakhine state township
has only one doctor per 83,000 people. The Sittwe general hospital, according to various reports, is incapacitated to accommodate a greater number of people. While educational institutions are now being planned to be converted into quarantine centres, there is a dearth of qualified health professionals. Moreover, it has been noted that the majority of people infected have no history of international travel or known contact with Covid patients. There are concerns that the state’s limited health facilities could soon be inundated.
Camp-dwellers vulnerable
Another possible area of alarm remains the camp areas of IDPs where the majority of displaced Rohingyas live. So far, no news regarding the spread of the virus within the camp areas have yet been reported. However, the concern still remains. The possible spread of the virus to these camps will be dangerous.
It is quite a well-known fact that the camp dwellers are more susceptible to the virus than the local populace of Sittwe. Open shelters, ill equipped water, sanitation or hygiene facilities or food arrangements tend to weaken their immunity system. On top of this, limitations to proper health care facilities and capacities remain. There are only
two government-run health centres with few beds, both inaccessible to those in remote camps. They are often headed by poorly-trained medical staffs and not professionals that perform only basic
treatments.
These centres also lack adequate medical equipment and medicines. Though authorities say that the displaced Rohingyas are getting tested, however, the numbers of testing have not been disclosed. Another matter of apprehension has been the current reports of the possibility of positive cases among few of the health and NGO workers serving within the camp areas.
Plausible solutions
Though the nation is again trying to stop the spread and enforcing restrictions, the plausible flaws within the system is becoming more apparent. Yangon is currently affected by rising cases. Contact tracing has
revealed four cases in Yangon and Mawlamyine, the Mon State capital linked to the outbreak in Rakhine. Government and media have opened blame tactics where they are tracing and flashing people’s name in various newspapers, of those who travelled from Rakhine to Yangon in the past few months.
The
people are being asked to present themselves voluntarily or else legal actions will be taken against them. This stigmatisation is creating more panic and can further lead to violence or mob lynching. Rather than causing embarrassment and threats, the people need to be given adequate support, proper treatment and care. Also, the state machinery needs to ensure unity so that the nation together is able to control the present spread. More fear may lead to lesser response and further delays.
The government needs to increase its health infrastructure and capacity. Continued vigilance will be essential, including wearing of masks, physical distancing and maintaining hygiene practices. It is important to understand that even after a vaccine is developed, it is likely that such preventative measures will still be a must for some more time till the effects of the vaccine is ensured and stabilised.
In addition to the stay at home orders, the authorities need to increase its testing capacities. There is an immediate requirement to restore 4 G internet services in the Rakhine state for ensuring proper delivery of information and services.
Ensuring safety of its displaced and stateless people is equally vital. UNHCR has
provided $9.4 million programme aimed at ensuring the inclusion of stateless and displaced people. Partnership with the humanitarian and international organisations will be crucial to ensure proper funds.
While much is being said, political will and corresponding actions of the government as well as general public will be critical to tackle the second wave of infections.
Country Reports
Afghanistan
Difficult road to peace
The Chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation, Abdullah Abdullah said that the negotiations between the government and the Taliban, currently underway in Doha, will likely be long-drawn and require tough decisions to be made on a number of counts. However, he reassured the people at large that the rights of all Afghans, particularly that of women and other marginalised communities, will be protected at all costs.
Key Taliban commander killed
In an operation conducted by the Afghan forces in the Surobi district of Kabul, the deputy commander of the Taliban’s “red unit”, Ghairatullah, was killed. According to the Kabul police, Ghairatullah, who was also commonly known as Mullah Sangeen, had been responsible for orchestrating and executing a number of deadly attacks in Kabul.
Bangladesh
‘Important in Indo-Pacific’
Laura Stone, the US Department of State Deputy Assistant Secretary, observed that Bangladesh is an important country for the US under Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). According to the official, the country has immense potential and opportunities. Stone made the comment during a joint virtual press briefing with Deputy Chief of Mission of US Embassy in Dhaka JoAnne Wagner.
Khaleda freedom extended
The government has extended the suspension of the jail sentence of opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party Chief Begum Zia for six months. Begum Zia has been convicted of corruption and was serving a 5-year prison term since February 2018. In March this year, she was released from the prison for six months on a medical reason and was receiving treatment at home. Her term of suspension of the sentence was due to expire this month.
Concern over Myanmar military activities in Rakhine
The Foreign Ministry summoned Myanmar’s envoy to voice its concern over the increased movement of the Myanmar military in the Rakhine province across the border. The Ministry has urged the envoy to inform their concern to the higher authorities in Myanmar. Bangladesh’s scepticism arises in anticipation of a possible exodus of Rohingya’s across the border in face of any military action against the community. Nearly one million Rohingya, an ethnic community of Rakhine state, are residing as refugees in Bangladesh after they faced atrocities in the hands of the Myanmar security forces in 2017. The repatriation of Rohingya refugees is of the major challenges facing the country.
Bhutan
GDP growth put at -2.1 pc
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth projection for 2020 has been revised downward to negative 2.1 after the country went into its first ever lockdown in August. The -6.7 percent reported earlier is the worst-case scenario projection, according to Finance Minister Namgay Tshering. He said that the worst-case scenario would come only if the country goes into several phases of lockdowns in the future. The only Covid-19-proof economic bedrock was the hydropower sector, from which revenue has increased.
NC to review BIMSTEC posting
The National Council (NC) will review the foreign ministry’s response on the government’s appointment of Tenzin Lekphel as the next secretary-general of BIMSTEC. The NC has already written to the foreign ministry, expressing its concerns about the appointment. Tenzin Lekphel is one of the founding members of the ruling party, Druk NyamrupTshogpa (DNT).The NC, among other questions, is likely to ask the foreign ministry whether the post was advertised, which the latter claims is required. .
Travel bubbles tourism plan
As Covid-19 has put tourism on hold globally, many countries are slowly trying to bring back tourism through the establishment of ‘travel bubbles’ arrangements. Governments are working with selected countries to allow visitors to enter the country on certain conditions. The Tourism Council of Bhutan (TCB) has also put up a bubble tourism proposal to the Technical Advisory Group (TAG) of the Ministry of Health (MOH) that may happen in March 2021. The proposal consists of 2 options that may be implemented from March 2021.
India
Akali Dal quits Modi Govt
Akali Dail’s Harsimant Kaur Badal, representing BJP’s oldest regional ally, has quit the government, opposing the three farm sector Bills, since passed by the Lok Sabha. The Bills are namely, The Farmers’ Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Bill, the Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement of Price Assurance and Farm Services Bill, and the Essential Commodities (Amendment) Bill, all three replacing the Ordinances during interregnum. While the Opposition parties contested the Bills, the ruling AIADMK (Tamil Nadu) and BJD (Odhisa) supported them. As may be recalled, the Punjab State Assembly had passed a resolution against the Ordinances in August.
Monsoon session cut short
The monsoon session of the parliament commenced on 14 September. At the beginning of the session, 23 Bills were listed for consideration and passage in this session. But due to the continuous surge of Covid-19 cases, all political parties have unanimously decided to cut short the monsoon session of Parliament that was originally scheduled to end on 1 October. A final decision regarding that will be taken by the Cabinet Committee on Parliamentary Affairs.
Maldives
Defence pact with US
In Philadelphia on a private visit, Defence Minister Mariya Didi has signed a Framework Defence Agreement with US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Reed Werner, to “deepen engagement and cooperation in support of maintaining peace and security in the Indian Ocean”. In surprise silence, jailed former President Abdulla Yameen’s Opposition PPM-PNC combine is yet to comment, adversely or otherwise, on the US defence pact. This is so even as the Yameen camp had launched an ‘India Out’ campaign, for the withdrawal of India’s naval pilots and technicians attending on two gift helicopters.
Myanmar
Call to change poll date
An open letter has been sent by 24 political parties including the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) dated 15 September to the Union Election Commission to reconsider the polling date for 2020 general elections in the backdrop of resurging Covid-19 infections. National League for Democracy (NLD) central information team secretary has informed that they will continue work in accordance with the UEC regarding the polling date.
Strengthening ties with S Korea
South Korea plans to renew its bilateral relations whereby Sung Yun-mo, Industry Minister, plans to meet his Myanmar counterpart, Than Myint, in a virtual meeting with Myanmar to share ways to expand their economic ties and overcome economic jitters sparked by the new coronavirus pandemic. Pending economic issues between the two countries were said to be discussed along with a wide array of issues covering trade, industry, energy and investment.
Nepal
Need to unify nation: PM
Prime Minister K. P Sharma Oli recently called for the implementation of amendments in the Nepalese Constitution. In this regard, the
publication of a 646- page volume titled ‘A Treatise on the Constitution of Nepal, 2015’ on the Fifth Constitution day of the country was noteworthy. The Prime Minister also spoke at length on the need to unify the country, strengthening the administration and establishment of cordial ties between the centre and the provinces, through the new Constitution.
China border shut still
The Covid-19 situation has led to around 1000 trucks and cargo vehicles being stuck at the Sino-Nepalese borders as the former is
reluctant to allow the same. The Rasuwagadi-Kerung and Tatopani- Khasa border points have remained closed since January, causing inconvenience to the construction process in Nepal, which are being funded or aided by China. Traders are also concerned regarding the stuck imported goods. This issue might strain the already better relationship between the two countries.
Pakistan
Farewell for China envoy
The increasing influence of the army establishment over Pakistan’s civilian government and administration on all critical foreign policy matters was on display as Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa hosted a farewell party for outgoing Chinese Ambassador to Pakistan, Yao Jing. This is a major departure from protocol, where outgoing envoys of foreign countries are generally accorded an official send-off by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Sri Lanka
Sajith party invites UNP
Breakaway SJB under Leader of the Opposition by Sajith Premadasa has invited parent UNP to contest the nine Provincial Council elections in the company of its existing and new allies. SJP General Secretary Ranjith Maduma Bandara told newsmen that he had discussed the matter with UNP’s recently-elected Deputy Leader, Ruwan Wijewardene, nephew of patty boss and former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, but refused to divulge details.
Bibliography
Afghanistan
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Mohammad Zahir Akbari, “
The Public Reactions Over Intra-Afghan Peace Process”,
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Are Taliban After Peace or Power?”,
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Intra-Afghan Peace Talks: A Historic Opportunity for Peace in Afghanistan”, 16 September 2020
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Road From Doha”, 14 September 2020
Bangladesh
Opinion Pieces
Sharif Shahab Uddin, “
Rock-Solid India-Bangladesh Ties”, Business World, 12 September 2020
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Bangladesh economy regenerates”,
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After 30 years of autocracy’s demise, democracy still remains a distant dream”,
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Bhutan
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There may not be another lockdown but we should be worried”, 17 September 2020
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A COVID-19 Food Self Sufficiency Lesson”, 12 September 2020
India
Opinion Pieces
Colin Gonsalves, “
Chargesheets & fairy tales: When police produce voluminous chargesheets, a judge should be suspicious”,
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Triple tragedy”,
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Strengthening competition in telecom is key to realising India’s digital ambitions”,
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Farms in ferment: Parliament passes farmer bills”, 19 September 2020
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Stop press: On blanket gag order against the media”, 17 September 2020
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The second chair: On Lok Sabha Deputy Speaker” 14 September 2020
Maldives
Interviews
Mohamed Afrah,
“A sit-down with Tourism Minister: Discussion on plans for the future”,
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Myanmar
Opinion Pieces
The Denmark-Myanmar Program on Rule Of Law and Human Rights,“
Myanmar Law Students Provide Free Legal Information to Local Communities”,
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Editorials
The Irrawaddy, “
Sacrifices of September 1988 Not Forgotten as Myanmar’s Long March to Democracy Continues”, 18 September 2020
Nepal
Opinion Pieces
Shreejana Pokhrel, “Our most vulnerable need protection during the pandemic. We can then celebrate the constitution,”
Republica, 19 September 2020
C K Lal, “The intent of elite imitation”,
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Pakistan
Opinion Pieces
A.G. Noorani, “
Asian boundaries”,
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Pervez Hoodbhoy, “
Arab cultural narcissism”,
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Shahid Ilyas, “
New cold war: are we ready?”
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Democracy and capitalism fail each other”,
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The myth and reality of Afghan-owned peace process”
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The construct of China’s national security strategy”,
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Dawn, “
Gilgit-Baltistan and Aug 14”, 19 September 2020
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Regional trade”, 19 September 2020
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FATF bills”, 17 September 2020
Sri Lanka
Opinion Pieces
Neville Laduwahetty,
“Constitution and amendments”, The Island, 19 September 2020
P K Balachandran,
“The downside of cow slaughter ban”,
Daily Mirror Online, 19 September 2020
M S M Ayub, “
Who is going to decide the contents of the new Constitution?”,
Daily Mirror Online, 18 September 2020
Malinda Seneviratne,
“20th Amendment: Yahapalanists are subverting objection”,
Daily Mirror Online, 17 September 2020
Harim Peiris,
“Ruwan Wijewardena: UNP leader-in-waiting”,
The Island, 17 September 2020
Sanjeewa Fernando,
“20-A may be fatherless now, but many are its gleeful beneficiaries”,
Daily Mirror Online, 16 September 2020
Ranga Jayasuriya,
“20-A is redundant in supra-majority, so why this unhold hurry?”,
Daily Mirror Online, 15 September 2020
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Interviews
Easwaran Rutnam,
“Ethnic issue, only a few are talking about a political solution: Media Minister Keheliya Ramukwella”,
Daily Mirror Online, 15 September 2020
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“US deployed military bases in the Indian Ocean: Chinese Envoy”,
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Contributors
Afghanistan: Shubhangi Pandey
Bangladesh: Joyeeta Bhattacharjee
Bhutan: Mihir Bhonsale
India: Ambar Kumar Ghosh
Maldives & Sri Lanka: N Sathiya Moorthy
Myanmar: Sreeparna Banerjee
Nepal: Sohini Nayak
Pakistan: Ayjaz Wani
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