Nepal: The ‘onion effect’ in reshaping India, China relations
Sohini Nayak
The recent crisis of onions in India and their soaring prices have latent within them the capability of influencing South Asian diplomacy. To be more specific, Nepal being the immediate neighbour of India has always remained heavily dependent on the latter for onions with regard to the demands of the domestic market. In fact, India has also been the largest exporter of onions in the world.
However, with the destruction of the year’s yield due to torrential and unseasonal rain, the entire harvest has been destroyed. As a result, a complete export ban had been imposed thereby creating a void in the cross-border markets, especially for Nepal. This has been posing far reaching implications with geopolitical connotations for the small Himalayan country, with the involvement of China as a major extra-regional actor, which has symbolically been present to ‘help’. This development may be analysed as an instance which made the Sino-Nepal relationship a little closer than it already was, much to the dismay of India.
Present scenario
In a bid to sustain the presence of onions in the Nepalese market, the country has now been looking forward to China. At the moment, every piece of the vegetable is a Chinese import. Around 573 tonnes of onions have moved into Kathmandu from China for about a month from mid-November. The Rasulwagadi and the Tatopani border-points are being used for the supply. It must be mentioned here that the presence of Chinese onions in the Kathmandu valley is not new.
It is often preferred by the big restaurants because of its size and taste. However, as of now, the situation has moved beyond the valley and spread to places like Narayanghat, Butwal as well as Pokhara. This has also resulted in the promotion of cross-border smuggling practices. The price for smuggled Indian onions is around 225 Nepalese Rupees, which has aggravated the situation even further.
Though it takes around 10 days to import onions from China with the cold northern border points and the high freight charges, the scenario has somewhat become normalised now, pushing Nepal further into the arms of China. We may recall the import of basic broadband connectivity from China in this aspect, which basically came forth after the Nepalese started becoming aloof to the Indian supply.
Comfort with China trading
According to the data presented by the World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS), China controls around 14 per cent of the Nepalese trade (2015). Nonetheless, both the countries are thinking about taking the relationship ahead with further improvement as now the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative is already in action. The rail proposal between Nepal and China through Kathmandu and Kyiroing in Tibet is also going on in full swing that would facilitate trade even more.
If we may read between the lines, Nepal may be trying to avoid another blockade like situation, as experienced in 2015, with India. The onion incident has reminded Nepal of that year when it was more of a humanitarian and societal crisis. Also, with the recent border dispute with India in the Kalapani area, the situation has become even tenser. Both the countries, though on amicable terms with each other, have been feeling a sense of aloofness and distance, which can be healed only with time and greater trade negotiations.
Pakistan: Death for Musharraf exposes institutional imbalance
Ayjaz Wani
For 35-odd years out of 72 years of its creation, Pakistan has been ruled by military dictators. Even during the times when the country has had spells of civilian government, the army establishment has remained politically dominant and economically affluent. Much to the chagrin of the political leadership, the army has always had a decisive sway in the affairs of the state. Under such historical conditions, that led to a systematic erosion of democracy and democratic institutions, the recent verdict of the special court in Pakistan against Pervez Musharraf on 19 December 2019 came as a surprise. However, the entire episode, as it is unfolding now, needs careful study and analysis before one can draw any definitive conclusions from it.
Gen Pervez Musharraf ruled Pakistan as a military dictator from 1999 to 2008, after toppling the civilian government headed by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in October 1999. He went on to declare himself as the President of Pakistan even while continuing as the army chief. During his tenure, India-Pakistan relations witnessed two extreme phases –- one which led both neighbours to the verge of a full-fledged war, and the other that showed signs of a possible solution to the vexed Kashmir issue. Before the start of his dictatorship, Musharraf masterminded his country’s diabolical misadventure in Kargil in 1999 and then, towards the end of his controversial term, proposed the ‘four-point formula’ to resolve the Kashmir Issue.
High treason
Musharraf has become the first military dictator of the country to be prosecuted under Article 6 of the Constitution, following a judgement of a special court that held him guilty of “high treason” and awarded him death sentence. He was found guilty of this charge for imposing nationwide emergency on 3 November 2007. This historical verdict broke the long tradition of ignoring the breach of the Constitution by other three military rulers -- Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan and Zai-ul-Haq.
As ailing Musharraf is living in the UAE since March 2016, Justice Waqar Ahmad Seth, who headed the three-judge bench of the special court,
directed the law enforcement agencies in the paragraph 66 of the judgement “to apprehend the convict/fugitive … and if found dead, his corpse be dragged to D-Chowk, Islamabad, Pakistan and be hanged for three days”.
The days following the exemplary verdict have revealed extreme divergence in the institutional positions taken by different pillars of the government in Pakistan. To begin with, the verdict of the special court itself was
fractured, as only one judge was in favour of "exemplary punishment". Besides such intra-judiciary differences displayed by the verdict itself, the decision raised a storm of criticism from other institutions of the country– especially the civilian government led by Imran Khan and the all-powerful military establishment. The verdict has exposed wide and deep institutional cracks that threaten to have serious political implications in the country.
Unusually bold, but…
The verdict was, no doubt, unusually bold and must have shocked and surprised the military establishment in Pakistan. While the verdict reaffirmed the importance of judiciary, for the strong army, it was no less than an open challenge to its hegemony over the country. Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the media wing of the armed forces, said that the special court’s verdict, “has been received with a lot of pain and anguish by the rank and file of the Pakistan Armed Forces”.
The ISPR maintained that Musharraf served the army for 40 years, fought wars in defence of the country, and therefore cannot be a traitor. It also accused the judiciary for not following the due legal process and denying Musharraf his fundamental right of self-defence with a hasty trial. The army also raised objections on the language of the verdict stating that it "transgresses humanity, religion, culture and any other values". The verdict was seen a sinister design and conspiracy of internal and external anti-state elements. Clearly, the outburst by the military establishment showed how stung it was by the verdict and how keen it was to reaffirm its supremacy over government institutions in Pakistan.
The controversial verdict of the special court has created a sense of restlessness within both the judiciary and the army. As the army cast serious aspersions on the judiciary and openly challenged the verdict on Musharraf, the Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) government led by Imran Khan also tuned their line with the army as Imran Khan vowed to support the “institutions”.
Special Assistant to the Prime Minister (SAPM) Dr Firdous Ashiq Awan said that the verdict was an attempt to pitch the institutions against each other and demoralise the army. The PTI government representatives even went to the extent of saying that the judge was of unsound mind! "The federal government has decided to go to the Supreme Judicial Council as the government believes that such a person cannot be a judge of any High and Supreme Court. If a judge gives such a judgment, then such a judge is mentally unfit and incompetent,” they reportedly said.
Fawad Chaudhry, Pakistan’s minister for science and technology, said that if the army of the Pakistan is weakened or divided, the country will be in anarchy. The PTI government endorsed the attorney general’s remarks that the special court’s verdict was unjust. Even before the verdict, the military establishment had tried to meddle with the proceedings of the special court by coercing the PTI government. The entire prosecution team was sacked and the government had petitioned the Supreme Court to bar the special court from proclaiming the verdict. The petition also questioned the basis of high treason charges levelled against Pervez Musharraf by the previous government.
Both the army and the civilian government have been particularly miffed by paragraph 66 of the judgement, which ordered the law enforcement agencies to capture Musharraf, and if found dead, to drag his corpse to Islamabad and hang it for public viewing for three days. Soon after a telephonic conversation with Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, the PTI’s strategic committee, headed by Prime Minister Imran Khan, decided to move the Supreme Court against the verdict and petition against special court head Justice Seth. Law Minister Farogh Naseem, while revealing these developments, said the verdict is both unprecedented and contemptable and is an attempt to take Pakistan into the dark ages.
Amidst the chaos, whether the civilian government – under pressure from the strong army establishment – will be able to reverse the special court’s decision is a question that will be answered by the direction that the Supreme Court takes in the coming days. However, two things emerge clearly from the divergent reactions that the judgement against Musharraf has drawn from Pakistan’s institutions.
First, the intra and inter-institutional fault lines within the state have resurfaced, with the army clearly at the receiving end as the institution with the conviction of one of its former Generals in a treason case under Article 6. Second, the country’s civilian government is trying to overlook the inter-institutional imbalance and restore it in army’s favour, because the ruling perception in Pakistan as elsewhere is that the civilian leadership is under the mercy of the army leadership.
Under Imran Khan’s watch, the army has become much stronger in terms of political influence and acquisition of military equipment. Only time will tell if Musharraf’s death sentence will set the precedence for the judiciary to intervene positively, by invoking Article 6 of the Constitution, and deter possible coup-makers in the future.
Country Reports
Afghanistan
American University may be shut
As the United States government plans to withdraw funding to the American University of Afghanistan, the institution, which is regarded as the top university in the country and the only one providing western-style education, may close down. Established in 2006, the University has been able to establish gender parity in the student council, with almost half of the composition being female. More than 60% of the University’s funding is sources from the US Agency for International Development, which has failed to assure the former of a steady supply of funds henceforth.
Taliban targets peace convoy
On Christmas day, the Taliban ambushed a convoy of peace activists travelling through Farah province, and kidnapped 27 of them. The convoy consisted of members of the People’s Peace Movement, established to protest against violent attacks, since a car bomb exploded in a sporting arena in Helmand last year. Although the Taliban released the kidnapped activists the following day, the exact reason for kidnapping remains unclear.
UN puts civilian casualties at 1 m
The UN Special Representative in Afghanistan, Tadamichi Yamamoto, on 26 December stated that in the last decade itself, civilian casualties due to the on-going violence in Afghanistan crossed the 1,000,000 mark. In the 1 July – 30 September period itself, there had been 1,174 civilian deaths, with around 3,139 suffering severe injuries, observed the UN in a report published earlier this year. Along with stating casualty figures in the last decade, the UN representative also underscored that peace would be the only option to end conflict in Afghanistan, regardless of the outcome of the presidential election.
Bangladesh
BNP’s charge
Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, general secretary of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has accused the government of collaborating with India and turning the country into a dumping ground just to stay in power. Fukhrul’s comment followed remarks by Obaidul Quader, general secretary of ruling Awami League, that minority persecution in 2001 can only be compared with Pakistani brutality on Bangladeshis in 1971. He claimed that the Hindus escaped from Bangladesh during this period and the BNP cannot hide the truth. The BNP was in power from 2001-06. Recently, Indian Home Minister Amit Shah claimed that minorities were persecuted in Bangladesh during the BNP’s rule.
Eco-friendly oil from India
India will be supplying eco-friendly oil to Bangladesh through cross border friendship pipeline shortly. In this respect, a meeting of the India and Bangladesh Project Review Monitoring Committee (PRMC) was held last week. This project is estimated to cost INR 346 crore and is likely to take 30 months to complete. The pipeline will connect Siliguri in West Bengal in India and Parbatipur in Dinajpur district of Bangladesh. The pipeline will carry high-speed diesel from Numaligarh Refinery Ltd (NRL), located at Golaghat in Assam in India. Currently, high-speed diesel is supplied from the Siliguri terminal through rail rakes. In 2018, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Indian counterpart jointly inaugurated the construction of the project through video conferencing.
Bhutan
Services sector losing
The financial sector in the country has suffered a loss of Nu 2.54 billion in September this year due to increased interest expense and non-performing loans (NPL). In March this year, both banks and non-banks incurred a loss of Nu 1.19B for the same reasons. The loss in June this year was recorded at Nu 1.49B. Service and tourism sector recorded the highest NPL, which is obvious considering the sprouting numbers of hotels and travel businesses.
High fee for regional Tourists
Tour operators in Kolkata and Siliguri fear that Bhutan is planning to charge a minimum daily fee of $250 (Rs 17,782) from Indian tourists starting sometime next year. The tiny Himalayan kingdom even now charges this amount per foreign visitor per day, but those from India, Bangladesh and the Maldives are exempt. The $250 charge includes a $65 ‘Sustainable Development Fee’ (SDF) and $40 visa charge.
India
BJP loses Jharkhand
After losing power in western Maharashtra to the post-poll re-alignment involving oldest ally Shiv Sena to the rival Congress-NCP combine, the ruling BJP at the Centre lost yet another State Assembly polls, this one in the central tribal-dominated Jharkhand State. The party won 25 seats against a tri-party Opposition alliance of Congress, JMM and the RJD, who won 45 of the total 81 seats. This is the fifth assembly poll defeat for the party before and after the parliamentary elections, which the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi swept all the same.
Conflicting signals
Even as the nation-wide protests have surprised the ruling BJP at the Centre, between them Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party boss and Home Minister Amit Shah seems to be engaging in a flip-flop on the CAA, NRC and NPR, at times withdrawing from known positions of certainty to tentativeness even as junior ministers and party aides are busy defending the original position still. This even as authorities across the country are keeping their fingers crossed over the resumption of students’ protests when their universities and colleges reopen after the year-end vacation – and the BJP Government in southern Karnataka has threatened violent protestors about confiscation of their properties to pay for destruction of public property, on the lines of the UP counterpart, which has already begun doing so.
Maldives
New alert against IS
In a bold, risky and unprecedented move, the Maldivian government has called upon all countrymen, especially those in faraway islands, spread out across the Indian Ocean, to help end the presence of ‘ready-to-kill’ IS radicals, whose numbers the nation’s police boss Hameed Mohamed has put at a high 1,400 – or one for every 300 of the four-lakh population. With this, personnel of the nation’s security forces, including the Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF) have started search operations with their weapons on their person – a rarity in living memory. Other departments of the Government have also joined hands to re-educate those moving away from religion and society, including vaccination of new-borns under a new law, and cancellation of licenses for religious preachers sermonising on radical Islam.
Myanmar
Internet service must begin
The shutdown of all internet access in parts of northern Rakhine State entered six months in December and is now one of the longest blackouts in the world. The Myanmar government has yet to make any announcements in response to the public’s call of restoring internet connection in the four townships of Ponnagyun, Mrauk-U, Kyauk Daw and Minbya. The UN in November joined calls to end the blackout, calling it “a significant impediment” to its work and communications in the area.
No labour
According to the Ministry of Labour, Immigration and Population, a total of 274,890 Myanmar nationals went abroad for work between January and October 2019. Due to a shortage of manual labour, farms in two villages in upper Myanmar namely Inn Kone in Natmauk township, Magwe and Si Thar in Kyaukpadaung township, Mandalay, have been appealing for donations from the public to keep their fields fertile for the past three years. The number of young and able men to sow crop and gather the harvest in rural Myanmar has dwindled sharply over the years, as most have left home to seek better jobs in bigger cities and overseas.
Nepal
MCC pact with US
Moving across through innumerable speculation, finally the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) shall be endorsed by the ongoing session of the lower house of the Nepalese Parliament. This information was shared by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Pradeep Kumar Gyawali. This agreement with the US would help Nepal reach the global platform better with greater connectivity measures and enable sound investment opportunities.
Regeneration from BhoteKoshi
The BhoteKoshi hydropower station in Sindhupalchowk has started operating for commercial usage. This project was greatly harmed during the 2015 Nepal earthquake. However, it is now back to producing around 22-25 MW of electricity once again. China has played a major role here in refurbishing the project on an urgent mode.
Pakistan
New Saudi FM meets PM
Saudi Arabia’s newly-appointed foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan al-Saud, visited Pakistan for the first time on 26 December. During his day-long visit, Prince Faisal met Prime Minister Imran Khan and Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi to discuss bilateral issues and their fallout that took place in the Kuala Lumpur Summit, in which, more than 20 Muslim countries participated. Following their meeting, Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said, “Pakistan and Saudi Arabia enjoy deep-rooted and longstanding fraternal relationship. The two countries are committed to further strengthening bilateral cooperation in all fields.” However, the visit happened amid the crisis in the Muslim world and the recent controversy surrounding Pakistan’s last-minute pull out from Kuala Lumpur summit, a grouping that poses a perceived threat to the Saudi-backed Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC).
On US ‘black-list’, still
The United States has kept Pakistan blacklisted under the International Religious Freedom Act (IRFA) 1998, for the second year running. This is significant as Pakistan now continues to face potential US sanctions due to growing concerns of religious persecution amidst minority communities like the Shias and Ahmadiyyas, among others. Much in line with the United States Commission on International Religious Freedom’s (USCIRF) stance on the issue, the State Department has included Pakistan among nine “countries of particular concern” for having engaged in or tolerated “systemic, ongoing, egregious violations of religious freedoms”.
SC moved on ‘extension’
Prime Minister Imran Khan-led PTI government granted three years extension to Army Chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa, who was supposed to retire on 29 November. However, the Supreme Court suspended the notification of extension by PTI and asked the parliament to legislate in assembly for the extension of the Army Chief for reappointment within six months. The review petition submitted to the court lists Prime Minister Imran Khan, President Arif Alvi and Army Chief Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa as petitioners after the government failed to muster the desirable support of opposition parties in the parliament. The legal team of the federal government had found several gaps in the verdict.
India preferred over China
The Pakistan government on Tuesday decided upon the one-time import of polio markers from India that are used to mark the fingers of the children who are administered with the polio vaccine. Government had suspended the trade with India on 9 August in the aftermath of the abrogation of Article 370 by New Delhi. Since then, the domestic pharmaceutical industries had demanded for the lifting of the ban. Pakistan, which is facing a crisis in supply of medicines, subsequently lifted the ban in September.
Sri Lanka
Anthem, not in Tamil
A new controversy seems to be erupting for the Government of President Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, elected to office in mid-November, with his announcement that the National Anthem would be sung only in the majority Sinhala language at the 4 February Independence fete in the New Year, and the customary Tamil rendering would be discontinued. TNA parliamentarian M A Sumanthiran and Upcountry Tamil leader and former Minister Mano Ganesan have questioned the presidential directive while no member of the Tamil-speaking Muslim polity has raised the issue, as used to be the case all along.
Bibliography
Afghanistan
Opinion Pieces
David Zucchino, “
A Country Where Driving Makes You a Target,”
The New York Times, 26 December 2019
Hujatullah Zia, “
Controversy Over Election Results,”
The Daily Outlook Afghanistan, 24 December 2019
Mohammad Zahir Akbari, “
Taliban’s Monopolistic View Main Obstacle to Intra-Afghan Talks,”
The Daily Afghanistan Outlook, 22 December 2019
Editorials
San Antonio Express News, “
A Blunt Assessment of War in Afghanistan,” 26 December 2019
The Hindu, “
Endless wait: on Afghanistan Presidential Election,” 27 December 2019
Afghanistan Times, “
Seeds of Progress,” 25 December 2019
Afghanistan Times, “
The Ordeal of Combatting Foreign Currency,” 24 December 2019
Bangladesh
Opinion Pieces
Mizan R Khan , “
An effective platform for branding Bangladesh”,
The Daily Star, 26 December 2019
Mostafiz Uddin, “
2020s offer exciting new chapter for Bangladesh RMG”,
The Daily Star, 25 December 2019
Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty, “
Does India stand to lose Bangladesh’s friendship over CAA & NRC?”,
The Quint, 20 December 2019
Bhutan
Editorials
Kuensel, “
Climate change, future looks grim”, 23 December 2019
Kuensel, “
Economy at the Cross-roads”, 24 December 2019
India
Opinion Pieces
Ajit Prakash Shah,
“In the CAA narrative, finding the judiciary’s lost voice”,
The Hindu, 29 December 2019
Kapil Sibal,
“Legality is not enough”, Indian Express, 28 December 2019
Priyanka Deo,
“The intolerance of the liberals”, Indian Express, 28 December 2019
Farheen Ahmed, “
An Act that fails the constitutional test”,
The Hindu, 26 December 2019
Dr C Rangarajan,
“Key steps to kick-starting the economy”,
The Hindu, 25 December 2019
Maldives
Opinion Pieces
N Sathiya Moorthy,
“Maldives: High alert after Govt disloses higher number of ready-to-kill radicals”,
www.orfonline.org, 26 December 2019
Myanmar
Opinion Pieces
Kyaw Phyo Tha , “
Int’l Media Shows Lack of Fairness, Ignores State Counselor's Message to the ICJ”,
The Irrawaddy, 23 December 2019
Lawi Weng, “
Landmine Use Must Be Stopped in Myanmar’s Armed Conflict”,
The Irrawaddy, 20 December 2019
Nepal
Opinion Pieces
Amish Raj Mulmi, “A reading list for the new year, focused on China”,
The Kathmandu Post, 27 December 2019
Sukhdev Shah, “Creating possibilities for Nepal”,
Republica, 24 December 2019
Editorials
The Kathmandu Post, “Most constitutional bodies remain largely non-functional”, 27 December 2019
The Himalayan Times, “Before disaster strikes: Forecast-based anticipatory action in Nepal”, 27 December 2019
Pakistan
Opinion Pieces
Zahid Hussain,
“Diplomatic debacle”, Dawn, 25 December 2019
Hassan Niazi, “
The verdict”,
The Express Tribune, 24 December 2019
Talat Masood,
“Institutional harmony and good governance”,
The Express Tribune, 25 December 2019
Dr Ahmad Saeed Manas, “
The heart-aching decision”,
The Express Tribune, 26 December 2019
Asha’ar Rehman, “
The team that lets them down”,
Dawn, 27 December 2019 Zarrar Khuhro,
“The Descent”,
Dawn, 23 December 2019
Sri Lanka
Opinion Pieces
D B S Jeyaraj,
“Singing national anthem in Sinhala and Tamil languages”,
Daily Mirror Online, 28 December 2019
Ranga Jayasuriya,
“Development or devolution: Tamil problem cannot be resolved either way, but can be managed”,
Daily Mirror Online, 28 December 2019
M S M Ayub,
“Tsunami, a lost opportunity by Tamils for peace-making”, Daily Mirror Online, 27 December 2019
Malinda Seneviratne, “
Recruitment conundrum: Loyaltya nd competence are not coterminous”,
Daily Mirror Online, 26 December 2019
N Sathiya Moorthy,
“Can UNP find a unifier-fighter?”,
Ceylon Today, 24 December 2019
Jehan Perera,
“Problems that will not go away on their own”,
The Island, 24 December 2019
N Sathiya Moorthy,
“Us vs Them does not leave out political victimisation, too”,
Colombo Gazette, 23 December 2019
Contributors
Afghanistan: Shubhangi Pandey
Bangladesh: Joyeeta Bhattacharjee
Bhutan: Mihir Bhonsale
India: Ambar Kumar Ghosh
Maldives & Sri Lanka: N Sathiya Moorthy
Myanmar: Sreeparna Banerjee
Nepal: Sohini Nayak
Pakistan: Ayjaz Wani
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