This century has been termed as the Century of Asia and almost 1.6 billion people in the South Asian sub-continent could either make it happen or mar Asia's prospects. It is because of the component of youth in its population structure which could push growth. South Asia stands at a crucial crossroads today. It is witnessing age structural transition, resulting in so called 'Youth Bulge'. Countries in this region are moving from a position of high mortality and fertility to low mortality and fertility. This creates an opportunity which if not constructively used could turn into a nightmare.
For some years now, policymakers have been talking about the demographic dividend that South Asia is going to accrue due to rise in the ratio of working to non-working population. But the question is whether conditions exist or are being created for its productive use? Demographically, South Asia is a diverse region having almost 24 per cent of the global population. The fertility rate varies from a high of 6.5 in Afghanistan to a low of 2.0 in Maldives. Life expectancy at birth is 30 years higher in Sri Lanka (74.5) than in Afghanistan (44.5). The population growth rate is 3.3 per cent per year in Afghanistan and 0.8 per cent in Sri Lanka. In short, the region is not a coherent one.
However, one fact is consistent across South Asia. The percentage of working population is growing and its ratio to non-working section is also rising. For South Asia, this ratio stood at 1.43 in 1950 and fell to 1.22 by 1965 as infant and child mortality rates fell. Since then, it has risen to 1.74, as the baby boom generation has moved into working ages. The ratio is expected to reach a peak of 2.2 working-age individuals for every non-working-age person in 2040, before beginning to decline.
Demographers like David Bloom are of the view that countries with a large workforce and relatively few people of dependent age can reap the advantage which they call "demographic dividend". The WHO estimates that the dividend can increase a country's GDP growth by as much as a third. The period of 'window of opportunity' can be put to use by making the labour force productively employed which would raise the total GDP by directing accumulated wealth into productive investments and by making appropriate investments in formation of high quality human capital.
The opportunity is limited, and its length is determined by the speed of demographic transition. If appropriate interventions are not made by planners, then it would have negative implications for the economy and society. Experts say the South Asian countries are going to acquire a demographic dividend for a period of an average of 50 years.
India entered into its demographic window in 2010 and the GDP growth that began to rise at the beginning of the new century was a confirmation of the emergence of youth factor, say experts. Currently, India's $1.1 trillion economy is in need of 750,000 skilled labour in the next five years, along with 1.3 million unskilled, unqualified school dropouts. The talent gap, the lack of skills required for a given employment, would be at five million by the next year.
Today, while there is a need for 1,500 universities, there are only 370, that too lacking in quality. India also needs 1,500 IITs, 1,500 management institutes and 1,500 medical schools. A million good schools are also needed to take advantage of the dividend. With the GDP growth of recent years, while it is possible for India to take advantage of the youth bulge, it is difficult for countries like Pakistan, Nepal, Afghanistan and Bangladesh to tap the full potential of their dividend as many are facing civil unrest.
Confronted with unemployment rather than gainful employment, rising aspirations and growing expectation, impatient youth could turn into a destructive force, giving rise to criminality and terrorism. Thus resultant social unrest may engulf South Asia.
(Dr. Satish Misra is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)
Courtesy: expressbuzz.com
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