The results of the Assembly elections in five States, including Punjab, will be out on 6 March. It remains to be seen whether Punjab will stick to history and vote out the incumbent Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP government or whether history will be made and the latter will be re-elected. Surveys are giving the Congress a slight edge due to factors such as anti-incumbency and the likelihood of a poor performance by the BJP which last time won 19 out of the 23 seats it contested. However, irrespective of the results, this election is different from the earlier ones in some significant ways.
First of all, the percentage of voting, 78% this time, was higher than any previous elections. The highest percentage earlier was 75, recorded during the last Assembly polls in 2007. It has been argued that this high percentage is because of a feeling of anti-incumbency and a desire for change. This assumption is based more on past trends. While it is premature to draw a link between anti-incumbency and high voting, two factors have definitely played a crucial role in the high percentage. First, there were quite a few advertisements on TV channels, reiterating the importance of voting. Second, candidates from all political parties urged the voter to come out and caste his vote.
Another interesting characteristic of this election was that religious issues did not find much space in the electoral campaign, though the Congress Party publicly appealed to Dera's and Sehajdhari Sikhs for their votes. Unlike the 2007 elections, the Dera Sacha Sauda did not publically issue an edict to its followers to vote for the Congress, though the Sehajdhari Sikhs did publically declare that they would support the Congress Party.
Third, it is for the first time that there is a serious third front, named 'Saanjha Morcha', headed by Manpreet Singh Badal, president of the People's Party of Punjab. Manpreet is an erstwhile finance minister and nephew of the current Chief Minister, Mr. Prakash Singh Badal. The Sanjha Morcha is an interesting experiment as it has brought the Communists and some erstwhile Akali leaders under the same umbrella. Manpreet, who quit the Akali Dal due to differences on economic issues such as subsidies, has managed to strike a chord with a substantial section of Punjabi youth who are disenchanted with both the Congress and Akalis. His strong oratorical skills have helped him draw crowds, though it remains to be seen whether this will translate into votes and a substantial number of seats.
Fourth, breaking away from the convention, the Congress Party declared Captain Amarinder Singh as its Chief Ministerial candidate. This was announced none other than Mr. Rahul Gandhi, the All India General Secretary of the Congress Party, while campaigning for the party in the State.
Fifth, all three parties focused on development issues, leaving out emotional issues. The Shiromani Akali Dal focused on the development activities carried out during its five-year rule while the Congress focused on how it would revive the state's sagging economy. Mr. Manpreet Badal spoke about the need for putting the state back on the correct development path and revive Punjabi pride.
Finally, and quite significantly, all political parties were on the same page as far as better relations with Pakistan are concerned. The Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal and the BJP spoke about the necessity of cross-border trade with Pakistan. Captain Amarinder Singh, in fact, emphatically stated that the salvation of the border districts lay in trade and closer economic ties with Pakistan. The BJP too stressed on cross-border trade with Pakistan via Hussainiwala and Wagah.
Now, it is hard to believe that exactly two decades ago, a Congress Government, headed by the late Beant Singh, took over the reigns of the state by securing only 8% of the popular vote in an election with 20% voting.
(Tridivesh Singh Maini is an Associate Fellow with Observer Research Foundation)
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