Occasional PapersPublished on May 02, 2019 PDF Download
ballistic missiles,Defense,Doctrine,North Korea,Nuclear,PLA,SLBM,Submarines

Pitfalls in making assumptions about Chinese PLA’s military-political behaviour

  • Sudarshan Shrikhande

 Sudarshan Shrikhande, “Pitfalls in Making Assumptions About Chinese PLA’s Military-Political Behaviour”, ORF Occasional Paper No. 191, May 2019, Observer Research Foundation.

Assumptions are a necessary part of statecraft and military planning. However, there are dangers in making incorrect presuppositions, especially those related to social, cultural or quasi-cultural aspects of an adversary that are then predicted to have an impact on military-political outcomes. This paper examines some of the most common political-military assumptions about the Chinese People’s Liberation Army that are inherently problematic, as they are based on either incorrect premises or inadequate analysis. The paper outlines a case against falling into these beliefs, because they are taken to imply the reverse attribute for one’s own side, and tend to become the basis for formulating losing strategies.

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Sudarshan Shrikhande

Sudarshan Shrikhande

RAdm Sudarshan Shrikhande has commanded three ships headed naval intelligence and served other naval and joint flag assignments. He has participated in track 1.5 initiatives ...

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Sudarshan Shrikhande

Sudarshan Shrikhande