Occasional PapersPublished on May 02, 2019 PDF Download
ballistic missiles,Defense,Doctrine,North Korea,Nuclear,PLA,SLBM,Submarines

Pitfalls in making assumptions about Chinese PLA’s military-political behaviour

  • Sudarshan Shrikhande
Attribution:

 Sudarshan Shrikhande, “Pitfalls in Making Assumptions About Chinese PLA’s Military-Political Behaviour”, ORF Occasional Paper No. 191, May 2019, Observer Research Foundation.

Assumptions are a necessary part of statecraft and military planning. However, there are dangers in making incorrect presuppositions, especially those related to social, cultural or quasi-cultural aspects of an adversary that are then predicted to have an impact on military-political outcomes. This paper examines some of the most common political-military assumptions about the Chinese People’s Liberation Army that are inherently problematic, as they are based on either incorrect premises or inadequate analysis. The paper outlines a case against falling into these beliefs, because they are taken to imply the reverse attribute for one’s own side, and tend to become the basis for formulating losing strategies.

The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.

Author

Sudarshan Shrikhande

Sudarshan Shrikhande

RAdm Sudarshan Shrikhande has commanded three ships headed naval intelligence and served other naval and joint flag assignments. He has participated in track 1.5 initiatives ...

Read More +

Contributors

Sudarshan Shrikhande

Sudarshan Shrikhande