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In November 2025, South Africa will become the first African country to host the G20 Summit in its business capital, Johannesburg. Expectations are high that South Africa will successfully highlight the African priorities during the Summit. From poverty, food security, high debt, and post-COVID-19 recovery to global challenges like climate change, weak economic growth, and divisive geopolitics, the list runs long.
During the summit, South Africa will also have the support of the African Union (AU) in navigating diverse interests and fostering consensus among its 54 member countries. The prevailing discord between several member states like Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) over M23 rebels, Egypt and Ethiopia over the Renaissance dam, Ethiopia and Somalia over the sovereignty of Somaliland and Morocco and Algeria over the Western Sahara are a few examples. Meanwhile, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger decided to leave the West African regional bloc Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and decided to form their own federation—Alliance of Sahel States. As more countries in the region may deflect in the future, the prospects of the strongest regional block of Africa are in tatters. To bring these conflicting parties to an accord would be a herculean task for South Africa.
South African politics is going through its most turbulent time as, for the first time, the African National Congress (ANC) is leading a coalition government with the principal opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA).
In addition, South Africa also has several domestic challenges that can impact, and severely damage the success of the event. South African politics is going through its most turbulent time as, for the first time, the African National Congress (ANC) is leading a coalition government with the principal opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA). The ANC and the DA are often at the two opposing ends when it comes to domestic or foreign policies.
Ever since the celebrated all-race vote of 1994 that ended Apartheid and brought the ANC to power under Nelson Mandela, the party has always ruled the country. However, widespread corruption, high unemployment, persistent economic inequalities, and soaring crime all contributed to the gradual decline of the Liberation Party.
Meanwhile, many new and radical parties emerged. Among them, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), led by former President Jacob Zuma and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by Julius Malema, are the most influential. In one of his most recent speeches, Malema also incited the apartheid-era song “Dubul’ ibhunu”, which translates as “shoot the Boer, shoot the farmer”, literally calling to kill the white farmers. No one knows what these radical leaders may do in the wake of G20, as they would certainly want to use the event to gain more public attention. Although South African President Cyril Ramaphosa expressed confidence in his country’s ability to organise the event successfully, he is aware of these challenges.
The Trump factor
As if these domestic and continental challenges were not enough, South Africa must also deal with the newly elected American President, Donald Trump. As he assumed the presidency of the US for the second time, speculations are high on how the US-African policy would evolve under the returning President. Pointing out his disregard for the continent during his first term, most analysts are sceptical about whether there is any chance of redemption for the US. As the US would lead the G20 after South Africa for the year 2026, both his presence and absence during the Summit would be a strong statement towards the upcoming US policy towards Africa.
South Africa needs Trump’s support for more than just the G20. It also needs to remain part of the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). Introduced in 2000, the AGOA is a US legislation that grants sub-Saharan African countries duty-free access for about 1,800 categories of designated goods to the US market as long as they fulfil certain conditions, including that they “must eliminate barriers to US trade and investment, enact policies to reduce poverty, combat corruption, and protect human rights”.
Pointing out his disregard for the continent during his first term, most analysts are sceptical about whether there is any chance of redemption for the US.
Citing the examples of Niger, Gabon, Uganda, and the Central African Republic, which are no longer part of the AGOA, a group of senators continues to demand South Africa’s expulsion from the AGOA, as well. resenting several arguments against South Africa, they argued that South Africa allegedly supplied arms to Russia for its war with Ukraine, tacitly supported Russia by refusing to publicly oppose its actions, allowed a sanctioned Russian vessel to dock near Cape Town in 2022, and hosted military drills with China and Russia. Additionally, South Africa’s latest decision to ask Taiwan to shift its liaison office from Pretoria is another issue that irritated these senators.
With an export volume of US$55.9 billion, South Africa is by far the largest AGOA beneficiary and the continent’s most significant exporter, exporting much more than the following exporters combined: Nigeria (US$11.2 billion), Kenya (US$7.3 billion), Lesotho (US$6.8 billion), and Madagascar (US$3.6 billion). Currently, the average annual bilateral trade between South Africa and the US is over US$67.5 billion. Consequently, the naturalisation of South Africa-US relations under Trump 2.0 would be a key diplomatic task for the Ramaphosa government as both Russia and China would be closely monitoring the outcome of this fiasco.
In any case, the US Congress must reauthorise the AGOA program in 2025. A bill is already in discussion in the US Congress that would prolong AGOA for an additional 20 years until 2045. The AGOA offers the US a solid opportunity to expand its economic ties in Africa and rebuild its influential position while fending off China’s expanding influence in Africa.
Meanwhile, Trump signed an executive order to cut aid to South Africa and the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has announced his absence from the G20, expressing his displeasure over South Africa’s controversial land expropriation law. With China’s deep pockets and Russia’s growing security interests, if Trump decides to part ways with South Africa, it may spell the end of America’s African Africa pivot.
The AGOA offers the US a solid opportunity to expand its economic ties in Africa and rebuild its influential position while fending off China’s expanding influence in Africa.
South Africa will be hosting the event under the theme—“Fostering solidarity, equality, and sustainable development”. As South Africa carries the hope of the 1.5 billion Africans, the G20 serves as a pivotal moment for the entire continent, let alone just the country. Irrespective of the challenges, South Africa is expected to prove its diplomatic agility and address the aspirations and challenges of the Global South during the Summit. This may also pave the way for ANC’s redemption. As it appears now, ANC’s road to G20 glory will be shaped by how successfully it navigates Trump’s presidency.
Samir Bhattacharya is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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