Though Trump’s economic diplomacy bodes well for African self-reliance, the future of the US-Africa alliance remains shaky
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This article is part of the series, "Reignited agendas: Trump’s return and its global repercussions"
As Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term on 20 January 2025, there is growing speculation about his likely ‘Africa policy’. During his first term, Trump largely neglected Africa and even made some derogatory comments about the continent. He has never visited Africa and has shown little interest in expanding United States (US) military operations there. While he has refrained from intervening in the internal affairs of African nations, it is clear that Africa has not been a key priority for his administration. Trump’s second term seeks to strengthen his “America First” foreign policy stance, which focuses on pragmatic, investment-driven strategies centred on American interests. This approach may bode well for African nations.
Trump’s first term included the ‘Prosper Africa’ Initiative. Launched in December 2018, the programme aimed to boost US investment and development projects in the continent. It was funded by the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) and established under the bipartisan BUILD (Better Utilisation of Investments Leading to Development) Act to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Africa through private sector investments. This expanded the US’s investment capacity in sub-Saharan Africa, with the DFC’s funding limit rising from US$ 29 billion to US$ 60 billion. Since its launch, Prosper Africa has helped US companies secure 2,500 deals across 49 countries worth US$ 120 billion. In other words, Prosper Africa had an impact equalling the more popular African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA).
Trump’s second term seeks to strengthen his “America First” foreign policy stance, which focuses on pragmatic, investment-driven strategies centred on American interests.
Since its enactment in 2000, AGOA has provided African countries tariff-free access to over 1,800 products in US markets. Although Trump had earlier considered ending AGOA in 2025, his goal to counter China’s influence in Africa means the program will likely continue. However, AGOA-related exports have fallen significantly from a peak of US$ 66 billion in 2008 to just US$ 10 billion in 2022, partly due to a decline in African petroleum exports. Trump is also expected to continue programs like the Young African Leaders Initiative (YALI), which promotes youth leadership, entrepreneurship and direct economic engagement, reflecting his focus on trade and investment-driven diplomacy. However, the previous government’s climate action and healthcare policies are likely to be scaled down. Instead, strict laws may be introduced to control illegal migration, and conduct mass deportations.
Many African leaders, from Egypt and Nigeria to South Africa, have congratulated Donald Trump on his reelection, aware that his second term could have significant implications for the continent. Awaiting his policy announcements on trade, aid, and security, clear divisions are emerging among African nations. South Africa and Kenya, for example, are concerned about potentially strained relations under Trump’s administration, while countries like Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria and Uganda are more optimistic.
In North Africa, Egypt and Morocco stand to gain the most from Trump’s return. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, a close Trump ally, was one of his biggest supporters in 2016. Trump previously called Sisi his “favourite dictator”. With Trump back in office, Egypt can expect a more favourable relationship with a reduced emphasis on human rights. Trump’s strongman approach could also help resolve conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, while potentially benefiting Egypt vis-à-vis its dispute with Ethiopia over the Nile River water and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
In 2020, as part of a broader agreement normalising relations with Israel, Trump altered US policy and recognised Morocco’s sovereignty over the region.
Morocco also welcomed Trump’s victory, hoping his return would boost its efforts to gain international recognition for Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed Western Sahara. In 2020, as part of a broader agreement normalising relations with Israel, Trump altered US policy and recognised Morocco’s sovereignty over the region.
In East Africa, Trump’s return may not bode as well. When President Biden pledged US$ 55 billion to the African continent in 2022, East African nations were among the largest recipients of US assistance. However, Trump’s “America First” agenda could lead to significant cuts in US financial support. This is lamentable, especially when the region is grappling with the world’s worst migration crisis in Sudan.
There have been calls for greater US involvement in Sudan’s crisis, which has left half the population facing starvation. However, an “America First” approach is unlikely to make Sudan a top priority. After the ousting of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, Trump played a key role in his first term, using diplomatic pressure to support Sudan’s transition to civilian rule. By removing Sudan from the US list of state sponsors of terrorism—conditioned on normalising relations with Israel—Trump opened the door for Sudan to access international financial aid, providing vital economic relief for its fragile democracy.
West African countries share similar concerns as their Eastern neighbours. In the past two years, the region has faced multiple military coups, devastating climate disasters, and rising insurgent attacks. Any further disengagement by Trump could worsen these challenges and boost both Chinese and Russian influence, with China growing as the region’s key economic partner and Russia strengthening its role in security. Meanwhile, junta leaders, who have borne the brunt of US sanctions, hope for them to be lifted by the new Trump administration.
In South Africa, Trump has sparked controversy, particularly by comparing himself to anti-apartheid icon Nelson Mandela.
In South Africa, Trump has sparked controversy, particularly by comparing himself to anti-apartheid icon Nelson Mandela. South Africa also criticised US support for Israel, while maintaining strong relations with both Russia and China. Although President Cyril Ramaphosa was among the first to congratulate Trump, relations with the US are expected to be rocky and dependent on how South Africa navigates its diplomacy. This is an especially crucial time for South Africa, as it is the largest beneficiary of the AGOA program, with some US factions demanding punishment for South Africa by removing it from the scheme.
Africa’s role in the multipolar world is evolving, and under Trump, US-Africa relations may become more pragmatic, focusing on infrastructure, trade, and business opportunities. Trump’s preference for direct economic diplomacy over ideological engagement or aid could align with Africa’s goals of economic self-reliance and sovereign political frameworks.
The African Union being recently recognised as a permanent member of the G20 highlights Africa’s growing global importance. The continent faces complex challenges, such as democratic backslides, youth unemployment and migration pressures; however, it has an immense potential for growth driven by youth and innovation. In this increasingly multipolar world, Africa’s resources and alliances are highly sought after, and US engagement remains pivotal. As US influence wanes in a rapidly changing Africa, facing growing jihadist threats and becoming increasingly aligned with China and Russia, Trump 2.0 could create both opportunities and risks for Africa. Yet, due to his unconventional nature, it’s hard to predict what issues Trump will prioritise once he takes office.
Samir Bhattacharya is an Associate Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation
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Samir Bhattacharya is an Associate Fellow at ORF where he works on geopolitics with particular reference to Africa in the changing global order. He has a ...
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