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The rapid heating of the planet demands that the next generation of cooling technology go beyond energy efficiency to be truly sustainable, while protecting the most vulnerable communities from excessive heat exposure.
Image Source: Getty
Year after year, global heating intensifies as rising temperatures continue to shatter records, with early 2025 pushing these limits even further. This relentless rise in heat has increased the need for cooling systems like air conditioning (AC) units, which now account for over 10 per cent of global electricity consumption and are projected to double by 2050 under the current trajectory. The immediate response: strategically incentivising energy efficiency measures are being implemented in India, offering considerable energy savings per unit. More recently, plans to restrict AC temperatures between 20° and 28°C seem to follow the same principle. However, this pursuit of maximising energy efficiency in this manner could, counterproductively, result in prolonged use during excessive heat.
The immediate response: strategically incentivising energy efficiency measures are being implemented in India, offering considerable energy savings per unit.
Affordable cooling is vital for health amid rising temperatures, but ACs—mainly used by the wealthy—both cause and (temporarily) ease the problem. Exposure to heat now poses a greater risk to life than ever before. In New Delhi alone, heatwaves during the capital’s summer frequently lead to hundreds of deaths, worsened by the urban heat island effect. While AC usage is highest among the most affluent, large sections of the population that do not have access to them are most acutely affected by the adverse effects of heat exposure. Moreover, as newer AC units offer considerable savings and become more affordable, their increased adoption can lead to higher overall emission levels. This creates a self-perpetuating cycle that demands intervention.
Source: Data from IEA, 2022.
As policymakers encourage the shift to energy-efficient ACs, there must also be a recognition that this will not alter the long-term global warming effects of ozone-depleting refrigerants. The future of cooling systems must be free from hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and emissions that damage the ozone layer. Passive cooling is a more sustainable solution in the short term, as experts in cooling technologies continue to search for effective, sustainable, and accessible alternatives.
The ubiquity of vapour compression (VC) systems reliant on HFCs—potent greenhouse gases with global warming potentials (GWP) thousands of times higher than CO₂—has driven research into alternative technologies. The Kigali Amendment’s accelerated HFC phase-down plan, now ratified by 155 nations, could prevent between 60 and 96 per cent of predicted emissions by 2050. Switching to climate-friendly refrigerants like R290 could bring the ozone-depleting potential (ODP) to zero and reduce (GWP). However, most new technologies come with the risk of being unaffordable in a highly cost-sensitive market unless backed with sufficient finance and incentivisation.
Passive cooling is a more sustainable solution in the short term, as experts in cooling technologies continue to search for effective, sustainable, and accessible alternatives.
Solid-state elastocaloric cooling, or thermoelectric cooling, has been presented as a breakthrough technology with minimal GWP. Furthermore, it demonstrates substantial efficiency gains while eliminating refrigerants entirely. Here, one n-type and one p-type semiconductor, electrically connected in series via soldered copper or metal interconnects, form a thermoelectric couple, capable of cooling with an electrical input. This enables the conversion of temperature differences into electrical energy (or vice versa) through the Seebeck or Peltier effect – the latter being when running electricity through two different materials causes one side to heat and the other to cool. Scaling this technology faces challenges due to supply chain vulnerabilities in critical materials like bismuth telluride (used in semiconductors) and copper, where geopolitical risks and concentrated production threaten stable and cost-effective manufacturing.
Source: Applied Thermoelectric Solutions LLC, “How Thermoelectric Cooling Works”
Solar-driven adsorption chillers are also a potential alternative that can reduce fossil-fuel reliance and offer energy savings, which are critical for regions with unreliable power grids. However, scaling these solutions will also require significant investment. Additionally, there will likely be a significant lag time before most of these technologies are affordable for those communities that are more vulnerable to heat exposure.
Effective governance and forward-thinking policy will be essential for integrating heat adaptation with broader climate goals. India’s revised E-Waste Rules (2026) mandate refrigerant recovery from discarded ACs but lack enforcement mechanisms for safe processing. To this end, the Indian government is considering new scrappage policies to phase out ACs older than six years. Leading corporations like Blue Star, LG, and Samsung were invited by the Ministry of Power to contribute to the formulation of these policies and devise incentives to accommodate the projected energy demand for the summer seasons.
Under India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime, ACs are taxed at 28 per cent, the highest possible rate reserved for luxury items, whether they are split or window units.
Over six years since India’s Cooling Action Plan (ICAP) was launched, efforts to enhance energy efficiency and reduce demand for refrigerants are noticeable. However, akin to Jevons’ paradox, as more people switch to energy-efficient ACs, emissions could actually increase due to increased adoption and usage. This principle applies equally to those who swap an old AC for an efficient one, as they may feel less discouraged from using an AC for prolonged periods due to the savings in energy costs. Meanwhile, ACs remain an unattainable idea for many of the urban and rural poor, who suffer from excessive heat exposure. Under India's Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime, ACs are taxed at 28 per cent, the highest possible rate reserved for luxury items, whether they are split or window units. Recognising that affordable and sustainable cooling is more of a necessity than a luxury will be an important first step towards addressing the transition to more climate-friendly systems.
International frameworks like the Global Cooling Pledge—endorsed by over 80 nations at COP29—have set ambitious targets for minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) and refrigerant phase-downs. However, this was also endorsed during COP28; nations must work together outside such multilateral channels to ensure that these words translate into meaningful action and begin to enforce MEPS for 90 per cent of cooling equipment by 2030.
Emerging technologies in truly sustainable cooling may capture a significant share of the market within the next decade. Making them accessible, however, hinges on policymakers and private players keeping pace with innovation. The transition to climate-friendly refrigerants or thermoelectric cooling will be particularly challenging due to increased system and operational costs. Timely action to facilitate this transition, backed by sufficient finance and technical knowledge, will be crucial in building climate resilience, which must work in tandem with passive cooling solutions.
Krishna Vohra is a Research Assistant with the Centre for Economy and Growth at the Observer Research Foundation.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Krishna Vohra is a Junior Fellow at the Centre for Economy and Growth. His primary research areas include energy, technology, and the geopolitics of climate ...
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