The race for the Governor of Okinawa has finally come to an end. In the gubernatorial election held on November 16, the incumbent Governor Hirokazu Nakaima was defeated by former Naha mayor Takeshi Onaga. Onaga's decisive victory (approximately 100,000 votes ahead of Nakaima) brings relief to the locals on the issue of the relocation of the US Marine Corps Air Station Futenma base to the Henoko district of Nago. This is a substantial step forward for the local population who have been struggling with the US base issue since the end of World War II. However, the consequences of these elections will resonate on both the US-Japan security alliance, as well as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's ruling LDP party.
Okinawa, the southernmost and poorest prefecture of Japan, has been burdened with 74 percent of all US bases in Japan, albeit holding only 0.6 percent of the country's land mass. Over the years, the bases have burdened the local population with issues ranging from the safety of civilians, environmental degradation and the storage of large volumes of chemical weapons. Issues of rape, helicopter crashes and crime regularly form the yolk of all conversations amongst Okinawans.
Furthermore, estimates have shown that the presence of these bases accounts for a mere 5 percent of the local economy, and indeed on many occasions hinders economic success by obstructing city planning - construction of railroads, placement water tanks, and the location of school and kindergartens for children. Issues of prostitution have also been a major concern of the local authorities.
After a number of these bitter incidents, Tokyo and Washington agreed in 1996 to relocate the dangerous MCAS Futenma base, and as further concessions to the locals, the US also agreed to transfer 8000 marines from Okinawa to Guam. However, over two decades of flip flop politics between Tokyo and Washington have ensured that not a single marine has so far been transferred off the Island, and the MCAS Futenma base still not relocated.
The local population is also painfully aware of the discrimination they have faced from the central government as opposed to the Japanese on the mainland. Japan regained its sovereignty from the US in 1952. But, Okinawa regained their sovereignty only 20 years later.
Thus, Onaga's comprehensive victory has come at a time when the Okinawans are more determined than ever to change the political climate that has overshadowed them post World War II. To illustrate this, Nakaima, an LDP candidate, received the full backing of the LDP government in Tokyo. Yet, roughly 27 percent of those LDP voters in Okinawa voted for Onaga.
For Prime Minster Shinzo Abe's ruling democratic party, this election result is a bitter blow. The LDP under Abe has taken pride in its firm leadership, claiming to have resolved the ongoing Futenma-Henoko issue. In December 2013, Abe successfully pressured then Okinawa Governor Nakaima to sign the landfill papers required for the construction of the Henoko base. He pledged to inject 300 billion yen for every fiscal year until the year 2021 as a persuasive measure that would enable the Henoko construction.
Thus for the Central Government, Onaga's win could prove damaging for their plans since the Governor could veto the landfill work needed for the construction of the new base at Henoko. This also comes at a time when Abe has chosen to dissolve the lower house in order to hold snap elections on December 14. This would leave Abe's government with only two options - first, he could revert back to his Nakaima tactics and pledge more aid and money to the new Governor in an attempt to change his stance on the US base issue; or second, he could overrule the locally elected officials, risking charges of authoritarianism. This could prove to be severely damaging to his reputation. It will also result in an immense amount of international speculation regarding the resurgence of Japanese nationalism which in recent times has already been fuelled by Abe's visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in 2013, and his move to reinterpret the Constitution.
Politics at the southern end of the Island chain are looking up. Onaga, upon assuming office in early December, has pledged to close MCAS Futenma; establish a special commission that would investigate the process and terms that enabled Nakaima's approval of the landfill work taken up at the Heonoko site; and finally he is ready to open a special Okinawa Prefecture office in Washington to facilitate dialogue regarding alternatives to the Henoko project.
The last move, if established successfully, should enable more positive results than those witnessed in the last two decades. Okinawa's frustration has increased over the years due to the fact that the Central Government at Tokyo, and not the Okinawan Prefectural Government, negotiates directly with Washington. Therefore the establishment of this prefectural office in Washington will enable the flow of dialogue that may increase Washington's understanding and sensitise them to the issues at hand.
As for the Central Government at Tokyo, it must comprehend that Onaga's decisive victory was fuelled by the intense anger of the Okinawan voters because of the recurring failure of Tokyo to not only reach a successful conclusion with Washington but also the inability and unwillingness of Tokyo to treat geographic fringe regions such as Okinawa in line with the rest of the mainland.
If Tokyo continues to project this kind of political, economic, and security discrimination, it will eventually create a substantial rift between mainland Japan and local Okinawans. Washington, for their part, should take the initiative to relocate U.S. bases outside the Island. The U.S. should recognise that World War II, and the Cold War are over, and that today the 'keystone of the pacific,' is not the only viable location for them to maintain their military might in the Asia pacific. Relocating the 8000 marines to Guam is the first step. This should be followed by mainland Japan accommodating more bases which would further relieve the tensions on the Islanders.
(Prof. K V Kesavan is a Distinguished Fellow and Vindu Mai Chotani is a Research Intern at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)
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