Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali's days as the Prime Minister of Pakistan seem to be numbered.
With the resignation of the Sindh CM, it is widely speculated that the next to follow suit would be Jamali. His repeated assurances that his government was under no threat, only betrayed his insecurity. General Musharraf, who could have reiterated Jamali's confidence, has not cared to do so and the statements that he has made on the subject can at best be called vague. He has been conspicuously non-committal in his remarks about the Prime Minister's performance and it is already having a negative impact on national politics and economy. It is yet to be determined whether the differences between General Musharraf and his handpicked Prime Minister relate to matters of principle or they are the inevitable cracks under the pressure of an artificially propped up system.
Chaudhry Shujat Hussain, president of the united PML, has not tried to exercise discretion over the differences he has with the PM, though he stated on the June 6 that these differences were not of personal in nature. Ominous assurances of any changes being constitutional have only made clear that a change is under way. Thus neither President Musharraf nor the party president Choudhary Hussain has ruled out the possibility of the removal of the Jamali government. His comment that there are 50 prospective candidates for the post of Prime Minister only shows how dispensable the incumbent of the office the PM is.
This unsettling state of ambiguity has characterized most part of Jamali's term excepting a couple of early months. It would be pertinent here to trace back the events that have actually led to this state of affairs.
His failure to browbeat the opposition into accepting the amendments to the Constitution introduced by Musharraf in the form of the Legal Framework Order (LFO) and into giving up their opposition to his continuing as the Chief of the Army Staff proved detrimental . An ill-timed impression may have been created that Mr Jamali behind closed doors sympathized with the MMA's demands because they facilitated his own aspirations for autonomy from a domineering president.
Musharraf has also been worried over the failure of Jamali to prevent repeated attacks by unidentified elements on the pipelines carrying gas and oil from Balochistan into Punjab and Sindh.
Their disagreement over National security council (NSC) which has made President Musharraf to redraft the proposed mandate of NSC in spite of the federal cabinet having already approved it and most cabinet members not supporting Jamali.
Irreconcilable party differences and mutual suspicion between Prime Minister Jamali and the president Hussain have made him lose support of most of his party members. His abortive attempts to capture the League by bringing in line splinter PML groups behind his candidature for top party post irked the President. When Musharraf frustrated this bid, Mr Jamali's desire to become secretary-general of the party and the support expressed for him by the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (F), Pir Pagara, are have widened the gap.
He has been accused of failing to act upon the seven-point agenda of General Musharraf. The national curricula could not be modernized after the prime minister opposed the plan and has been called 'illiberal' by the President's aides.
With the terrorist strikes continuing unabated in Sindh and the law and order situation going completely out of hand, his position is spiraling downwards.
Mr Jamali's original sponsors, the Chaudhrys of Gujrat, are also keen to throw him out. General Musharraf wanted a flexible, reliant prime minister and the mighty Chaudhrys gave him one. But now, Mr Jamali's unwieldy style doesn't seem to suit the Boss' advisors who are fixated with "good governance". Mr Jamali has been criticized by his opponents in the PML for being ineffectual, forgetting that the criterion for his appointment was not capability.
With some of Musharraf's advisers advocating Humayun Akhtar, as a news report said, supported by Musharraf's right hand man Tariq Aziz, as a likely replacement to Jamali, Choudhries are hesitant to support as would not like to share the power base with any other Punjabi politician. It was to protect their own political interests that the Choudhries supported Jamali as Prime Minister.Those against an in-house change believe that Jamali's replacement with Humayun, or any other Punjabi candidate, will not be taken well by the Balochi nationalists who, though do not support Jamali, will use this decision to consolidate their position against the predominantly Punjab-dominated politics. This will also be seen as another blow to the rights of smaller provinces as one Sindhi Prime Minister was hanged to death and a second one is refusing to return fearing unfair treatment by the state and its judicial system. The installing of a Punjabi Prime Minister will also fuel anti-Punjab sentiment among the smaller provinces as the officially-attested Pakistan Muslim League (Q) has a Punjabi President (Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain) and a Punjabi Secretary General (Mushahid Hussain) who last week substituted a Pakhtoon Saleem Saifullah. In this situation if Jamali goes the PML will split again.
Concerns about weak governance that was used to bring a change in Karachi could also be used to do the same in Islamabad. However there are a number of power centers and even more potential Prime Ministers in the arena, including Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri and Punjab Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervez Elahi. The PML president Shujat Hussain has publicly stated that there would not be a change till 2007. Given the circumstances he does not seen convincing.
Given the direction in which events seem to be moving, in Sindh and in Islamabad, Jamali's ouster seems imminent. But is it prudent, given the alternatives?
* Views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Observer Research Foundation.
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