B. Raman, former head of the counter-terrorism division of India's external intelligence agency, suggested that India should continue the peace process with Pakistan and should not get involved in this matter involving the US and Pakistan. He said New Delhi should not pressure Islamabad further in Pakistan's hour of 'humiliation'.
Almost 10 years after 9/11, US special commandos from SEAL have eliminated the mastermind of those attacks, Osama bin-Laden, in his posh home in Abbottabad, Pakistan. The killing removes one of the most potent symbols of non-State terrorism in the modern era. It has a significant impact on several States, and has raised many questions and controversies. In this context, the Chennai Chapter of the Observer Research Foundation, organised an interaction on 'Osama and After' on Saturday, 7 May 2011.
Initiating the discussion, Mr. B. Raman, retired Additional Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India, and former head of the counter-terrorism division of India's external intelligence agency, Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), examined the issues outlined. For the Al-Qaeda, he said, the death of Osama could mean the drying up of funds, which he could mobilise through personal contacts and possible requests on an operation-by-operation basis. This may not be possible for a successor, as Al Qaeda is not known to be holding large funds, otherwise.
As for the Al-Qaeda choosing a successor to Osama, Mr Raman explained that others, to begin with, would lack his iconic acceptance. Although Al-Zawahiri, for one, was among those the former consulted, and might be considered a strong contender, he was mostly a preacher known to be taking hard-line positions. Osama used modern technology to achieve his medieval goals, which others in his position might not be conversant in adapting. Strength of Al-Qaeda was the command and control which was maintained by Osama. The organisation was known to be patient and not react in hurry and come up with knee-jerk revenge attacks to Osama's killing. That being the case, they might not also want to expose a new leader to US action, and may not name one.
Mr Raman explained that US can pressurise Pakistan to search for and surrender Afghan Taliban leader, Mullah Mohammed Omar, and other terrorists. He suggested that India should continue the peace process with Pakistan and should not get involved in this matter involving the US and Pakistan. There was low criticism by the international community towards United States as Osama was a wanted criminal in many countries. But for India, it went beyond Osama, and New Delhi should not pressure Islamabad further in Pakistan's hour of 'humiliation'.
Speaking on the possibility of India conducting a covert operation on Pakistan, like the US did, Mr. Raman pointed out how apart from international criticism such an attempt was not advisable. Unlike in the case of the US and Pakistan, which were not neighbours and Pakistan may not be able to retaliate, India was a neighbour with a history of adversity. Covert action by India could lead to other consequences. He also explained that how under the 'Gujral Doctrine', India have given up covert operation capabilities and have not restored them - though this did not mean counter-attacks of a terrorist kind. The younger generation of intelligence officials too felt otherwise, in terms of the final outcome, it would seem. If the intelligence agencies were still ready for a covert operation, convincing the politician was a hard task, he explained from his personal experience.
Despite the lack of confirmation of Osama's presence in Abbottabad, US President Barack Obama had cleared the attack, based on inputs that had said that there was about 70 per cent chances that he was there. Mr Raman appreciated Obama's quick and bold decision. Mr Raman also appreciated the US' courage to correct the original claim and tell the world that Osama was not armed when killed. It came from their self-confidence, he said.
During the discussions that followed, participants flagged several significant issues - such as how commandos the world over shot at the head of a target even if he was presumed killed otherwise from other gun-shot wounds. The capture and killing of Osama was an extraordinary operation and the US forces took only minutes to accomplish their objectives. There was also criticism as to why Osama could not have been taken alive, or why his body was buried in the sea. In this context, Mr Raman appreciated that the US had planned and executed all the related decisions effectively. Apart from the fact that Osama's burial site, if in land, would have become an inspirational site for future terrorists, no nation would have also been ready to offer a site for the purpose, he pointed out. Citing past instances of the kind, he shared participants' view that Pakistan might not have been kept in the loop until the very last minute, when the US would have wanted to avoid a mistaken identity and Islamabad launching counter-attacks, possibly against India.
(This report was prepared by Sonali Khatri, I MA (International Studies), Stella Maris College, Chennai)
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