With barely two weeks left, there is still no clarity on the details of the forthcoming elections in Nigeria. Will Nigeria hold Presidential elections on February 14 and the Governors of the States poll on February 28 as scheduled?
With barely two weeks left, there is still no clarity on the details of the forthcoming elections in Nigeria. The Presidential elections are scheduled for February 14 and those for the Governors of the States for February 28. The elections have attracted unprecedented international attention for many reasons. This could be the most closely fought Presidential elections in Nigerian history. The challenges that the elections face from the administrative and security angles are matters of deep concern to everyone.
The Independent National Election Commission (INEC) had declared many months ago that only voters with biometric permanent voter cards will be able to exercise their franchise. But, with hardly two weeks left, about 30 million of the 68 million eligible voters are yet to receive the cards and it is unlikely that the process could be completed in time. What could be the consequences? The National Security Advisor, Col. Sambo Dasuki had hinted last week about a postponement of the elections by a short period of three months for which there is provision in the Constitution. However, would the two parties agree to this? The other possibility is for the INEC to waive the condition of biometric cards and allow voters with some acceptable identity papers. In this case, the opposition could object fearing an undue advantage to the present incumbent.
President Goodluck Jonathan is running for a second term as the People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate. Ever since Nigeria became a functioning democracy in 1999, PDP has dominated the Presidency with Olusegun Obasanjo having two terms, followed by Umar Musa Yar ' Adua (who passed away after serving for only two years) when Jonathan, as Vice-President took over and completed the term and subsequently had a full term. Due to the very convoluted traditions of rotation of the Presidency between the North and South, even confirmation of Jonathan as the PDP candidate had faced certain difficulties with the northern representatives claiming that it was their turn. It needed considerable negotiations and political maneuvering to ensure his nomination.
The combined Opposition of different parties is backing Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC). He was a General in the army and had been the Military Head of State in the 1980s. He had contested against Obasanjo and later against Jonathan in 2011. After losing the last election, he even moved the Supreme Court for alleged electoral malpractices by Jonathan. His term as the Military Head of State in the 1980s is remembered by many as being clean and efficient. He is known to be personally incorruptible, a rare quality in Nigerian politics. The fight this time around, is promising to be a bitter one with both sides pulling out all stops. Of course, Jonathan as the incumbent President has certain advantages. In the short democratic history of Nigeria, no incumbent has lost a Presidential poll. Further the war chest and the organizational apparatus of PDP is far superior to those of APC.
Predictions so far show that Jonathan is strong in the South-South and South-East (mainly consisting of Ibos) while Buhari is strong in the North (dominated by the Hausa-Fulanis). The real fight now is for the South-West (consisting of Yorubas) and the middle belt with a population of various tribes closer to the Hausas.
Endorsements by influential personalities could also be significant. A very powerful former Military Head of State, Gen. Ibrahim Badamassi Babangida, popularly known as IBB, has thrown his weight behind Buhari. IBB, in fact, replaced Buhari in 1985 in a palace coup, but the two have apparently put the past behind them for the new cause of defeating Jonathan. The firing of Sanusi Lamido Sanusi from the post of the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria last year by Jonathan could also prove costly. He was fired for announcing that US$ 20 billion of oil revenues were not credited into the national accounts creating a big embarrassment for the government. Later, he was appointed Emir of Kano by the relevant bodies, much to the annoyance of Jonathan. The Emir of Kano could easily influence voters in the region.
The other major concern for the elections is the security situation, particularly in the North-East. The terrorist group Boko Haram is not only causing havoc with many terrorist attacks in which thousands have been killed and more than a million displaced, but is also controlling substantial territory. As of now, three North-Eastern States, Borno, Yobe and Adamawa are under a state of emergency. Hence, they may not be able to participate in the voting which could affect Buhari's chances.
There are other problems too. In the oil producing South East, militancy has not subsided. On the contrary, new militant groups have emerged which continue to attack oil installations and pipe-lines. When Jonathan, who is from that region, was elected in 2011, he promised to resolve the long pending problem, by tough security measures and meaningful negotiations on their genuine grievances. He seemed to make some progress but the problem has returned with renewed vigor. It has proved to be much more intractable than was imagined.
The fall in international oil and gas prices is also going to affect Nigerian economy and polity adversely. The country is still predominantly dependent on oil and gas revenues. The economy has hardly diversified over the years. If oil and gas revenues plummet leading to drastic cuts in an already low government spending on social sectors, it could lead to serious social unrest. That would be an incentive for the disaffected and the unemployed to join groups like Boko Haram.
It is a very confusing situation that Nigeria presents today. What the country needs is a free, fair and transparent election. Otherwise, the ensuing political instability would only help the militants and terrorists.
(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)
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