With just ten days to go for the U.S. election on November 6, the race for the presidency is getting tighter than ever. In some ways, this is good news for the Republican candidate. Before the first presidential debate on October 3, Democrats were gleefully calling the race all but over and even Republicans were beginning to agree. Three weeks later, the race is tied and tight, but the general trend or
'momentum' over the last three weeks has clearly been in Romney’s direction, both in the popular vote as well as the state-by-state electoral college count. The question is whether the momentum is sufficiently strong to push Romney through. As of now, it is still not clear.
One month back, on September 25,
Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls put President Barack Obama 4 points ahead in the popular vote. Today, Mitt
Romney leads by 0.9 points, a shift of almost 5 points in Romney’s favour. Moreover, of the six latest national polls, five have Romney leading. In the electoral college count on September 25 (according to RCP’s count), President Obama led by 56 votes (not including the so-called toss up states that are too close to call) which turned into a slight lead by Romney by October 17. Today, Obama has a
slight lead again of 10 votes, 201 to 191, (with the remaining 146 votes in states too close to call).
What this indicates is the very real possibility that if the voting proceeds on the same lines as these polls indicate, Romney could win the popular vote and Obama the electoral college, as it happened in the 2000 election when George W. Bush won narrowly in the electoral college by just 5 votes, though he narrowly lost the popular vote. But there are still ten days to go and some volatility in the polls that suggest that there might not be such a split verdict.
The lines in the key battleground states are also trending in Romney’s direction though not as dramatically as in the national popular vote. He has gained support and managed to get ahead in some of the battleground states, but, as of now, President Obama still has a slight lead in the key battleground states. But Romney has advanced in some states such as Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.
Florida is a big prize and one of the key battlegrounds, with 29 votes in play. Florida is also very complex because it has more registered Democrats than Republicans, but over the last decade generally tended to elect more Republicans for state level leadership. But it also generally votes for the winner in presidential elections, voting for Obama in 2008 and Bush in 2004 and 2000. Obama has been leading in the state polls for several months, but Romney has pulled ahead over the last three weeks. Four of the last five polls in the state show a
slight lead for Romney. Nevertheless, Obama cannot afford to give up on the state considering the number of electoral college votes at stake.
Two other state polls show gains for Romney too. North Carolina (15 electoral college votes) had generally been Republican territory but had voted for Obama in 2008 and the Democrats were hoping to keep the state. Romney has held a slim lead through much of the summer but Obama did take the lead for about a week in late September. But Romney now has a firm lead, and the Obama campaign is reportedly pulling out of North Carolina to devote their attention to more promising battleground states, though the campaign itself has
dismissed such reports. Nevertheless, two of the last three polls in the state show
Romney leading, though the latest shows the state tied.
Virginia (13 votes) is the other state where Romney shows gains. Like North Carolina, Virginia is a traditionally Republican state that Obama carried in 2008 and was hoping to carry this election too. And unlike North Carolina, Obama has led in Virginia for much of the last six months. But as of today, Romney has a small lead, with all the recent polls showing
Romney leading the state.
But Obama continues to maintain a lead in most other battleground states such as New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota, though Romney is now showing a slight lead in the poll average in Colorado. Nevertheless, in most of these states, including traditionally Democratic ones such as Michigan, Minnesota and Pennsylvania, Obama’s lead has narrowed. Indeed, that states such as
Pennsylvania are considered a battleground state should worry the Obama campaign. Still, it is unlikely that many of these states will go for Romney in November.
The most critical of the battleground states is Ohio (18 votes). The current conventional wisdom is that neither candidate can afford to lose Ohio because it will become very difficult to win without Ohio (though not impossible). Obama has led in Ohio over the last year and continues to lead there narrowly. Obama has led
three of the last five polls in the state though the remaining two were a tie. Ohio thus remains the most critical state for both campaigns; not surprisingly, both candidates will be spending a lot of
time and effort on Ohio.
But between the two, Romney has a tougher track if he loses Ohio. Assuming that he wins all those states where he is currently leading, Romney will have 257 electoral college votes, thirteen shy of the 270 he needs. With Ohio’s 18 votes, he will win. If he loses Ohio, Romney will then need to win some combination of Nevada (6 votes), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6) and New Hampshire (4), all of which Obama currently leads but by narrow margins. Romney will probably win New Hampshire: two of the last three polls show him leading there. Unfortunately, it gives him only 4 votes. Adding Wisconsin would then put Romney over the top, but he has not led in any polls there, though the last two polls showed him within the margin of error.
If he does not win Wisconsin, he will need to win both Iowa and Nevada. Two of the last four polls in Iowa show Obama leading, one shows Romney ahead and the last is a tie. So Iowa might be a possibility. But that only gets Romney to 267. He will then need Nevada. But though Obama has lost ground in Nevada, he still led every one of the polls in the last two weeks in Nevada.
In short, Ohio remains the key for the Romney campaign. Without Ohio, Romney will likely lose. If Obama continues to hold on to Ohio, he can win reasonably comfortably. So, in the final stretch, Obama is ahead by a nose, but it is still too close to call.
(Dr. Rajesh Rajagopalan is a professor at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi)
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
PREV
