It has only been about a month since Donald Trump took over as US president, but the scale of changes he is bent on ushering in has cast a shadow across the world. There seems to be no geography that is not impacted by his initial steps. In an already volatile strategic landscape, these have added significant unpredictability. Trump seems to have no interest in continuing with the old traditions of American foreign policy and is redrawing the contours of US engagement with the rest of the world in some fundamental ways.
There has been much discussion about the centre-of-gravity of global politics shifting from the Euro-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific. Washington has been responding to this imperative for a while now. But Trump has made it clear that Europe won’t be getting the sort of attention it used to from the US anymore. The Russia-Ukraine war emboldened Europe into thinking that its value in the US strategic framework will get resuscitated. But Trump is having none of it. He is not only demanding that Europe fend for its own security, but in seeking a rapprochement with Russian President Vladimir Putin, he is also raising the stakes for Europe.
Trump seems to have no interest in continuing with the old traditions of American foreign policy and is redrawing the contours of US engagement with the rest of the world in some fundamental ways.
Europe has long been worried about this possible shift, but its leadership, except for a few exceptions, had been reluctant to make decisive choices. Strategic autonomy for Europe has been a matter confined to academia, while its decaying capabilities made it not only unable to stand up for its interests but also increasingly a burden for the US. As America looks at China as its central challenger and the Indo-Pacific as its critical theatre of operations, a weak and divided Europe incapable of looking beyond itself had to face a moment of truth. Trump’s ‘America first’ approach dovetails with this strategic realignment in US foreign policy.
This is linked to a renewed focus on China and the East in general. Trump’s belief that China’s trade practices have been unfair to the US and that the US has been taken advantage of forms the bedrock of his approach. This led him to push for a decoupling of the Chinese and US economies, pushing to bring manufacturing to the US and reduce reliance on China. Technological competition is also now driving this outreach as China seeks to outsmart the US in critical and emerging tech areas.
Technological competition is also now driving this outreach as China seeks to outsmart the US in critical and emerging tech areas.
Trump’s secretary of state Marco Rubio has warned that “If we [the US] don’t change course, we are going to live in the world where much of what matters to us on a daily basis from our security to our health will be dependent on whether the Chinese allow us to have it or not.” Earlier this week, the issue of Taiwan gained traction with the US state department dropping the line “we do not support Taiwan independence” in a ‘routine’ update to its online fact sheet on US relations with Taiwan. This marked a departure from Washington’s long-held position and drew instant rebuke from the Chinese who asked the US to “immediately correct its mistakes” over the removal of the line or risk “further serious damage” to ties.
For India, Trump poses a conundrum. On one hand, his unpredictability will need sustained engagement with the US and constant adjustment. On the other, new opportunities have also emerged for New Delhi in shaping a world bereft of the old strategic architecture that did little service to Indian interests. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US last week succeeded in laying a foundation for the next four years’ agenda. The ambition is quite evident in the joint statement.
Indian diplomacy thrives in a world of grey, but Trump is all about black-and-white. India can use this external pressure to put its own house in order and make changes where there has been lethargy.
Now it is up to India to demonstrate that it can deliver on its commitments to an administration in Washington that is openly making demands and seeking clear outcomes. Indian diplomacy thrives in a world of grey, but Trump is all about black-and-white. India can use this external pressure to put its own house in order and make changes where there has been lethargy.
Indian diplomacy has got too used to the virtue of strategic patience, but Trump’s America is in a hurry. From economic and trade issues to security in the Indo-Pacific, New Delhi’s old arguments for sticking to the ‘middle path’ will now be tested. Can India advance a serious trade agenda with the US? Can India match the long-term needs of its Atmanirbhar plan in defence with the expediency of buying US arms in the short term? Can it sharpen the edges of its diplomatic posture in the Indo- Pacific? These questions have gained urgency. Criticism of Trump will continue in seminar rooms and think-tank circuits, but managing Trump will have to be accomplished in real time. The challenge is stark but unavoidable.
This commentary originally appeared in Mint.
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