A number of important treaties of immense strategic significance have been signed during Prime Minister Vajpayee's first ever visit to Tajikistan on November 14. The agreements signed were related to setting up a Joint Working Group on Counter-Terrorism, a bilateral extradition treaty and military ties.
Indo-Tajikistan relations assume significance essentially due to three reasons. Firstly, the proposed highway from Chabahar through Afghanistan to Tajikistan (Chabahar-Kabul-Kunduz-Badakhshan) will enable India to have a transport corridor to the otherwise inaccessible Central Asian region. As the proposed highway starts from Chabahar – where an Iranian port is being built by India – which is close to the Pakistani port at Gwadar being built with Chinese help, it is also seen as a counter strategy by India to limit Chinese influence in the Pakistani waters close to India and Iran. The transport corridor through Iran, which stands to further strengthen India’s current engagements with it, also enables India to have a strong ally in the Islamic world though it might annoy the US. Indo-Iranian relations, thus, assume significance both in political and commercial terms. As the proposed highway passes through those parts of Afghanistan which are traditionally under the influence of the Northern Alliance, it is an opportunity for India to retain its influence in Afghanistan especially at a time when the Taliban and Al Qaeda are resurfacing in parts of the country.
This proposed transport corridor in which India would have substantial stakes also stands to balance Chinese engagements in the Central Asian region. The focus of Chinese energy engagement in Central Asia is Kazakhstan. In 1997, Beijing won the bid for the Uzen oilfield which is Kazakhstan’s second-largest oil reserve after Tengiz. China also won the bid to develop Kazakhstan’s Aktyubinst oil field and has acquired 30% interest in the Kursangi and Karabagli oil fields in Azerbaijan. China is actively planning to construct about 3,000kms of gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to Xinjiang. While China tries to engage the Central Asian region and its hydrocarbon resources through Kazakhstan, India’s strategy is to engage the region through Iran, Afghanistan and Tajikistan.
Secondly, engagements with Tajikistan will help India to strengthen its presence in Central Asia and Afghanistan. Latest reports from Afghanistan indicate that the US and the Karzai government in Afghanistan are promoting ‘moderate Taliban’ in Afghanistan and even inviting them to join the government. While the government in Kabul has confirmed that former Taliban officials have contacted the Afghan government and offered to cooperate with it to stem attacks on aid workers and government forces, the mediator between Karzai and Taliban seems to be former Taliban foreign minister Wakil Ahmed Muttawakil who has been reportedly offered a place in the Afghan government. On its part, Pakistan will certainly offer to cut down on pushing in extreme Taliban and Al Queda in return for promoting moderate Taliban and thus reducing Indian influence in Afghanistan. It is in this context that India needs to continue to engage Afghanistan whatever ways possible. Engagements with Tajikistan and Northern Alliance-controlled areas therefore assume significance.
Thirdly, engaging Tajikistan in military collaboration will give added strength to Indian interests in the Central Asian region. Reports indicate that military engineers are engaged in renovating a Tajik air base at a cost of $10 million and plans to build accommodation facilities to station troops are also underway. The air base, close to the Tajik capital Dushanbe, would station both fighter and transport aircrafts. However, both India and Tajikistan have denied reports that India is in the process of building a military base in Tajikistan. Apart from ‘repairing’ the airbase, in February this year Indian and Tajik forces held joint military exercises, and Tajik military officers already receive training in India. While this nominal Indian military relationship with Tajikistan is certainly not enough to balance US and Russian engagements with the region, it is certainly necessary to continue to engage it. Geographically, Tajikistan also assumes importance as it borders China, Pakistan and Afghanistan and Ferghana Valley which is a hotbed of terrorism.
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