Iran’s oil sales are at a five-year high as the US looks the other way despite sanctions. Iran is smartly undercutting Russia in selling cheaper oil and upset Saudi Arabia’s plan to profiteer from production cuts. The new world order being shaped amid the US-China battle for global supremacy equally belongs to countries charting independent paths
However, post-revolution Iran missed many of these developments as its tensions with the West spiralled and its energy infrastructure crumbled. Others, including India whose ONGC Videsh discovered the Farzad B gas field, also took a step back as per these new geopolitical realities led by a preferred tool of pressure employed by the West: Sanctions.
The latter’s nuclear programme brought an immense sense of urgency in capitals such as Washington to re-engage as Iran’s nuclear bargaining chip came into play.However, things have been gradually changing. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, also known as the Iran nuclear deal) was a fork in the road for the historical animosity between the West and Tehran. The latter’s nuclear programme brought an immense sense of urgency in capitals such as Washington to re-engage as Iran’s nuclear bargaining chip came into play. The JCPOA’s ambit was simple: Ease sanctions and allow economic growth in the country in exchange for strong checks and balances on its nuclear installations. The deal, while shackled by its own ambit, was the best workable option, until US President Donald Trump unceremoniously withdrew from it in 2018. Such measures are also a product of the fact that today the US in itself is a major energy power: both as producer and exporter, which it was not in critical eras such as during the Cold War. These realities of that time in turn shaped its foreign policy towards the Middle East to a large extent.
The collapse of the JCPOA soon met with global tectonic shifts in the shape of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and an increasingly assertive China.The Iranians mitigated their risk by continuation of their programme at a reduced, yet steady, pace led by an inherent mistrust of the US within its political classes, specifically the conservatives, who took over the leadership in August 2021 (ironically the history of Iranian nuclear programme dates back to the “Atoms for Peace” speech by President Dwight D Eisenhower and the pre-1979 US-Iran relations). The collapse of the JCPOA soon met with global tectonic shifts in the shape of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and an increasingly assertive China. Beijing has built itself as a nucleus of an “alternative” order challenging the post-WWII West-constructed liberal order. Despite this “new” ecosystem being built, it has much less in common between the states leading charge than the current international system.
The fact that Iran started to sell cheaper oil to China than Russia shows its pragmatism at work across geopolitical lines.Increasing debates about “de-dollarisation” from sectors of business where such arguments would have been unfathomable till recently shows fundamental changes in thought (action, meanwhile, is a whole different ball game). Iran is operating, with increasing success, amidst these modalities. Its actions are not unusual. A country like India, a net importer of oil, had hugged Saddam Hussein and agreed to stop import of Iranian oil when the situation needed such a drastic stance, as per demands of realpolitik. States act in national interest first, whether others like it or not. Iran’s realities are no different.
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