America witnessed a close and bitterly fought election, but in the end, President Barack Obama has won with a clear majority of votes in the Electoral College. America has decided: four more years for President Obama. The re-election of an incumbent President at a time when the country is undergoing a sluggish recovery from one of its most severe financial recessions, with the unemployment rate at nearly 8 per cent, calls for some retrospection. For most of the campaigning season, Obama’s re-election bid remained shaky and Republican challenger Mitt Romney came very close to pulling the rug from under Obama’s feet.
Highlighting his credentials as a successful businessman, Romney continued to give stiff competition to Obama, especially on the economic front. However, Obama provided a stronger narrative. He took the Presidential oath at a time when the country was in a deep economic mess, while also fighting two wars that ate into the national coffers. Things were bad when he entered Oval Office but he has, to some extent, driven home the message that if had not during his first term adopted policies like the auto bailouts and stimulus, things could have been much worse.
As the President has emerged the winner after a nail-biting election, it would be safe to assume that Obama’s supporters as well as those who were undecided till the last moment believe that the President deserves another four years to take forward the things he began. The first presidential debate which Romney undoubtedly won changed the dynamic of the race, with many beginning to see the challenger in a new, more flattering light. Indeed, given the economic condition of the United States, people were bound to be skeptical of reelecting the incumbent.
At the same time, there were a host of other socio-economic issues - like healthcare, entitlement programmes, issues related to women, minorities, and immigrants - where President Obama was seen as the better leader. And when Sandy storm struck America’s East Coast during the last days of the election campaign, President Obama showed leadership qualities and earned the praise of even hardcore-critics like Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey. Moreover, in foreign policy and national security, as the third debate amply showed, Romney lagged behind the President. The fact that Obama’s Administration killed America’s arch-enemy Osama bin Laden continued to prove that President Obama would never waver when it comes to securing America. While President Obama had a protective shield in the form of his sustained lead in the Electoral College votes, the election was uncertain till the very last hours. But, the real story is what lies ahead for President Obama, for America and for the world at large. What would Obama’s second term look like? What would be the priorities and agenda and what are the major challenges on his way? And, the important thing to note is that Obama’s re-election has not changed the fact that the United States of America is, more than ever, divided over major issues of national importance. Deepening polarization runs across the country. More Republicans are calling themselves conservatives and more Democrats, though relatively fewer in comparison to the Republicans, call themselves liberals. This decreases the space for moderates in both the parties, and in the process, accentuates disagreements and enhances a lack of consensus in policy-making.
The ’fiscal cliff’ looms large over the American economy. By the end of this year, the Bush-era tax cuts will expire and across the board spending cuts will set in, thus requiring an urgent reform of America’s fiscal management. The United States of America faces a host of socio-economic challenges and polarizing differences continue to plague cooperation between the two parties. And with the Republicans in control of the House of Representatives, challenges towards the proper realization of Obama’s plans regarding taxation, social safety nets and his healthcare programme will likely continue. There is no doubt that the Obama Presidency, domestically, will continue to grapple with fiscal problems and issues of debt management that will ask a lot from the relationship between the White House and the Congress. As such, the year to come will be an important barometer of the political climate in America. The politicians in Washington can either provide a recipe for more deadlock or build opportunities for a way forward.
And, if President Obama, during his second term, faces increasing challenges and constraints from a Republican-controlled House of Representatives, he might turn his attention to foreign policy issues where he already has build some sort of a legacy and where he enjoys more prerogative powers. He has scored positive points from a number of analysts for showing a more internationalist and multilateralist face of American power, yet unrelenting when it came to national security.
So, in the case that Obama goes into his ’commander-inchief suit’ more often, his second term will be an important phase towards the trajectory of US approach to Iran’s nuclear aspirations, America’s role in Afghanistan during and after the drawdown in 2014 and what it portends for America’s uneasy relationship with Pakistan. Moreover, US approach towards a rapidly changing Middle East and North Africa, America’s relations with Russia and last but not the least, managing an edgy but an inevitable relationship with a rising China will be important markers of his foreign policy legacy. It needs to be seen how Obama’s foreign policy pans out at a time when America is undergoing a deep economic recession and the American people, understandably, are more concerned about what happens within their borders and with their day-to-day lives than with what happens beyond.
As regards India, a change of administration in Washington is not going to affect the upward trend that is being seen in Indo-US relations. The relationship has come to a point where a change of governments either in New Delhi or in Washington will not dramatically alter the nature of engagement between the two countries. Having said that, four more years of President Obama, undeniably, gives more opportunities to build on the habits of cooperation between the two countries, to work on the gains achieved so far and to iron out differences.
The changing political landscapes in India’s neighbouring countries like Myanmar and Pakistan calls for more meeting of minds between India and the United States. And, India’s increasing role in the future of Afghanistan, especially post the 2014 US drawdown, requires increased communication between New Delhi and Washington. Moreover, in America’s emerging rebalancing strategy towards Asia-Pacific, India is seen as a lynchpin. The Obama administration can be counted upon to give more substance to its ’Asia Pivot’ policy and lend more certainty to this significant component of Indo-US relations. Obama’s first term record gives ample indication to what his second term will bring forth. But, only time will tell what four more years of President Obama mean for America and the world.
(The author is an Associate Fellow, US Studies, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)
Courtesy: The Sahara Times, November 17, 2012
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