Increasing radicalisation and internal strife in Pakistan will destabilise the country and the region, said noted terrorism expert Major General Afsir Karim at a discussion in Observer Research Foundation on Jan. 23 in New Delhi.
Increasing radicalisation and internal strife in Pakistan will destabilise the country and the region, said noted terrorism expert Major General Afsir Karim at a discussion in Observer Research Foundation on Jan. 23 in New Delhi.
The discussion focused on Radicalisation of Pakistan and Its Impact on Pakistan and was chaired by Mr Vikram Sood, former Secretary, Research and Analysis Wing and currently Vice President, ORF Centre for International Affairs.
An ORF Issue Brief on the subject, authored by General Karim, was also released on the occasion. (It is available on the website.)
In a fairly comprehensive analysis of the situation in Pakistan and its possible fall-out on India, General Karim, who has been in the forefront of studying and analyzing terrorism in the subcontinent for over two decades, cautioned ``the militants and terrorist operating in Kashmir will get a free hand because of the prevailing chaos and carry on their depredations with the help of the Pakistani Taliban and some foreign groups.’’
``Bomb attacks on Indian cities may be stepped up and communal tensions may be stirred further``, he warned in his conclusion.
Opening the discussion, General Karim said it was important to define `radicalism` and to make clear distinctions between terms like `fundamentalism` and `extremism` to understand the issue in its correct perspective. He said being religious was certainly not the same as being a fundamentalist or a radical.
Discounting the possibility of Pakistan becoming radical as a whole, General Karim said the Army certainly would not be radicalised despite its involvement in spawning and supporting terrorist and extremist groups for decades, particularly during and after the Afghan jihad. He said 84 per cent of the Army officer corps was drawn from eastern Punjab, an area closer to the Indian border. “The Army will resist any attempt to radicalise its rank and file,” said the former Indian military officer.
Likewise, he said, the provinces of Sindh and Punjab would not allow radicalism to take roots. In cities like Lahore, Karachi and Rawalpindi, people were uncomfortable with the idea of being ruled by Islamic laws. The people of the area were certainly religious but were more anti-American than radical.
General Karim said historically, the radical Muslim groups have fought among each other and this could unleash serious disturbances in Pakistan. ``There could be bloody chaos in Pakistan,`` he cautioned.
More worrisome was the fact that 70 million people in Pakistan, he said, were below age 15 and a majority of them were bereft of any hope of getting educated in good schools or a regular employment. Many of them would be content with studying in madrasas which haven’t changed in character despite promised funding from the US to review the syllabus. Poverty, unemployment and lack of avenues for a decent living would encourage the young to veer towards radicalism. He said the continuing presence of US/NATO forces in Afghanistan and Pakistan was only encouraging the jihadi groups.
In his paper, General Karim documented how the Taliban, al Qaeda and their supporters have ``a large armed following, secured bases and sanctuaries in the tribal areas of Pakistan, which they will continue to hold. Their domain is likely to remain confined to remote tribal belts for the present and their influence over the rest of the country will be limited``.
He argued that the political turmoil in Pakistan has created a dangerous and chaotic environment in which the influence and following of the radical groups has increased greatly. ``Pakistan is in the throes of momentous changes and battlelines between the moderates and hardliners are now clearly drawn. There is also a power struggle between political parties and the army; this tussle may eventually benefit the radical groups. The turmoil that has started in Pakistan will not subside in the coming months; on the other hand, it may simmer for years and drag the country into a prolonged civil war. In the meanwhile, radicals may get complete control of the tribal belt from north to south and function as an autonomous Islamic region, concluded General Karim in his paper.
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