Despite Union Home Minister P Chidambaram's declaration that the Centre was not considering the imposition of President's rule in Andhra Pradesh, to be able to handle the 'Telangana issue', the chances are that there might not be any alternative left in the interim. A spell of President's rule could provide the Centre with the much-needed time to negotiate a solution acceptable to the people and polity of Telangana, and also to the other two regions of residual Andhra Pradesh, namely, coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. While giving enough time to look at various options, and sort out a solution that could be unique to the circumstances, if it is not to be a separate State, the Centre would also require a cooling-off period if tempers were not to hit the streets, as it happened the last time round, and create a massive law and order problem, which the State Government proved it was incapable of handling, that too simultaneously in all three regions - one, for a separate State in Telangana and the other against the very same demand in residual Andhra Pradesh. At the same time, such an interim arrangement would also provide time for the people at large to come to terms with reality, and accept a pragmatic solution, even if it fell short of their respective expectations.
For now, the continuing resignation of legislators of various political parties belonging to Telangana region, in support of the 'separate State' demand, has taken the Governments at the Centre and in Andhra Pradesh by surprise. Though the threat of resignation was looming large for quite some time now, pre-occupied as it was with handling a series of graft-related issues almost on a daily basis for months now, neither the Government of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, nor the Congress Party leading the ruling coalition at the Centre, seems to have had either the energy or the time to address the 'Telangana issue' which pre-dates the current edition of corruption controversies. Brought in at the wrong hour, the Government of Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy too seems to have left it all to chance, its concerns being restricted in context to maintenance of law and order, the larger 'State issue' having been left to be handled by the Centre under the constitutional scheme.
In the 294-member Andhra Pradesh Assembly, Telangana accounts for 119. Despite the longevity of the separate State movement under the Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (TRS), the party has only 11 seats. The Congress dominates the scene with 50, followed by the TDP, 38. Others in the list include the MIM (7), CPI (4), BJP and PRFP (2 each), and the Lok Satta (1). There are three independents. Likewise, in the Lok Sabha, the Congress has a high 12 from a total of 17 in Telangana, in the total State quota of 42. The TDP and TRS have two seats each, followed by the MIM (1). Counting on the MIM's support, the Congress still stands a better chance of forming a government in a separate Telangana arrangement under the existing Assembly. Even TRS founder K Chandrasekhar Rao was on record long ago that his party would not stake claim to Chief Minister's office if the Congress-led Centre and the State Government helped in the formation of a separate Telangana State. For the Congress, put on the defensive at the Centre owing to the scams, controversies and court cases, the parliamentary contribution from the Telangana region would matter under the present circumstances. Allowing the resignation of party MPs and others from the Lok Sabha could set off a process that the leadership and the Government at the Centre may not be able to control or stabilise at will.
What has surprised the Centre and the State leadership of the Congress this time round is the alacrity and urgency with which the party legislators from Telangana put in their papers which caught the TRS napping. Chandrashekar Rao and his actor-colleague Vijay Shanti faxed their resignations to the Lok Sabha Speaker only a day after some of their Congress counterparts had done. Standing out, however, from the Congress MPs from Telangana who have not resigned is Petroleum Minister S Jaipal Reddy. The likes of him, as also Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy, who is an 'outsider' to the region, are unlikely to support the 'separate State' demand - and may be looking for a constitutional solution that would address the legitimate concerns of the Telangana people without the formation of a separate State. While arguing the case for a solution within a united Andhra Pradesh, the State Government could put forth the argument that the people of coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema had to be prepared for accepting a division, if it were not to turn into a massive law and order problem. In December 2009, when Union Home Minister Chidambaram announced the formation of a separate Telangana State past-midnight, the whole State went up in flames, impacting on law and order in a big way, and also on the economy. The revenue collections of the State Government were affected badly, and there came a stage where the Government would have been unable to pay the salaries for its employees had the agitations continued longer.
If there is some light at the end of the tunnel, it is this. By hijacking the Telangana movement, members of the Congress and other political parties in the region may have left lesser room for Left militants for manoeuvrability. In December 2009, the street violence that followed the Centre's indecision after Minister Chidambaram had promised a separate State was attributed to student supporters of Left militants, reportedly working out of the Osmania University campus. This contributed to counter-violence by protestors in coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema. If nothing else, the State and Central Governments would need time to handle street protests of the kind before any meaningful dialogue could be initiated on sorting out the constitutional scheme for Telangana, without any pressure or time-limit.
The inevitable leakage of the multi-layered proceedings in such negotiations that would involve the Centre, the State Government and also political parties and groups could set off incidents, which none would have bargained for. In particular, the Centre would also be called upon to compensate residual Andhra Pradesh in economic terms, for the loss of Hyderabad as the political and economic capital of a residual State, if Telangana were to be formed. At the same time, any Government coming to power in Telangana too would demand high doses of Central funding, to address the continuing backwardness of the region as a whole, barring the twin cities of Hyderabad-Secunderabad.
Independent of what is on store, political parties are not unlikely to leave out electoral calculations while discussing the 'separate State' demand. The Congress, which is now considered weak, thanks to the vertical split in the State unit, caused by Jagmohan Reddy, the son of late Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, may have a substantial legislative presence in a separate Telangana. With the 'Hyderabad-Andhra' comprising the Telangana region, having a substantial Muslim population, the BJP has its medium and long-term tasks cut out. For the CPI and CPM, which have a reasonable presence still in region, owing to long history of poverty and oppressive tendencies, mainstreaming of the Left militants might be good news.
On the other hand, the Centre would want to look at larger issues, on how a separate State would impact on internal security issues, considering that Telangana region for long has been the cradle of Left-leaning militancy for decades now. The current belief is that they are only lying low, and may continue to be influencing decisions by individual leaders and legislators alike - and could demand the centre-stage, if they have a more manageable political unit, for them to control. With no clear idea if a separate State would help mainstream the Left militants, or push Telangana into their hands even more, thus becoming the centre-point of ideological militancy in the country, a lot needs to be considered before the Centre could take an abstract decision on the 'separate State' demand.
(The writer is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation)
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