India: State election results, reflection on the voters’ wisdom?

Ambar Kumar Ghosh The results of the recently concluded Vidhan Sabha elections in Indian States of Haryana and Maharashtra as well as the by-polls in 51 assembly seats and two Lok Sabha seats across 17 other States have definitely sprung up some new political dynamics that would shape the discourse of Indian politics in the recent future. On one hand, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been humbled by a reduced seat share in Maharashtra while retaining the requisite majority to form the government and in Haryana, it had to seek support from a new regional political outfit, Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) to form the government in the State as it failed to muster majority on its own. The elections also saw some indication of the revival of a beleaguered Congress in Haryana as it was able to double its seats in this election. The elections witnessed a greater political prominence of regional parties like the Shiv Sena (SS) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) in Maharashtra and debutant political outfit, JJP in Haryana. In the by-polls, though the current ruling coalition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) maintained the overall dominance, it also did reflect the dominance of some regional powers like the RJD, the TRS, the AIADMK and the AIMIM and others along with the national opposition party Congress’s important win in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh. But apart from the palpable political matrix that this election has shaped, it is the wisdom of the Indian voter in this election which deserves further appreciation and adequate analysis.

Saturate campaign

A close analysis of the poll results would show that four crucial aspects of the voting pattern of the considerable section of the electorate is indicative of the political wisdom that the Indian people has displayed in this election. First, the election trends clearly show that the concerted attempt of the BJP to saturate the election campaign in both the States with the nationalistic appeal of national security coupled with its crucial step in Kashmir by the dilution of Article 370 might not have found direct resonance with the people of both the States in an overwhelming manner in this election. There is, however, no evidence to suggest that the nationalistic appeal and support for the government’s move regarding Article 370 has weakened amongst the people. Rather, the probable attempt to overlook the local ground issues like unemployment and agrarian distress which are severely affecting the lives of the people did not augur well with the people this time, as the electoral defeat of quite a few incumbent ministers indicates. Especially in Haryana, the efforts of State Congress leadership and the JJP to make the pressing local issues central focus of their campaign against the BJP probably helped them to resonate with the people better and make electoral headway in the State. Above all, the results once again reinforce the ability of the Indian electorate to realise the primacy of the local issues in the midst of the national rhetoric. Second, if there was any truth in the alleged politically motivated targeting of political stalwarts of the opposition camps like Sharad Pawar in Maharashtra just before the elections, then adherence to such tactics in the garb of elimination of corruption probably didn’t help in politically denting the electoral prospects of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Pawar. Rather, the election results indicate that a substantial section of people facilitated NCP to emerge as a credible opposition force to reckon with in Maharashtra. Hence, it is safe to take an inkling that the people were prudent to distinguish between genuine attempts towards transparent governance and vendetta politics.

‘No’ to defection

Third, the results have also shown that many of the electorally strong candidates in different States who recently defected to a more politically attractive outfit just before the elections to grab a greater share of power suffered heavy electoral defeat despite their personal as well as the party’s popularity and political capital. This definitely reveals that the electorates were able to identify the political opportunism of their leaders and therefore voted against them as an expression of despise towards such self-interest driven political conduct. Lastly, the elections results very clearly suggest that despite some disenchantment with the ruling BJP, the electorates, majorly in the urban centres, were still largely in favour of retaining BJP led incumbent government for the sake of political stability and continuity despite the double incumbency both at the State as well as national level. This support for the ruling BJP also reflects the sagacity of the voters to clearly understand that the opposition comprising of the Congress and regional parties, which is riddled with factionalism and lack of a coherent alternate political narrative reflected in their confused and lacklustre political campaign, is yet to replace the BJP as a credible alternative force in both the states. Thus, taking a cue from these elections, it is safe to assume that the Indian voter has the political awareness and ability to distinguish clearly between national and State elections keeping in mind the ground realities. Probably, it is this expression of political consciousness of the Indian electorate that holds hope for the enduring resilience and consolidation of Indian democracy.

---

Nepal: Territorial row with India

Sohini Nayak A very strong objection has been levied against India by its Himalayan neighbour Nepal on a very critical issue of territorial claims. Only four days had passed since the release of the Indian political map by the Home Ministry of India when Nepal brought about allegations of demarcating the Nepali territory of Kalapani within Indian borders, which is around 2 per cent of the Nepali territory. This new map came from India after the creation of Jammu and Kashmir along with Ladakh as the new union territories. Although India has completely denied this allegation, the unresolved border disputes between the two countries cannot be denied and has brought forth the ripe memories of still unresolved issues. This specific Kalapani area was portrayed as a part of the Pithoragarh district of Uttarakhand. However, Nepal considers this to be an unsettled territory which is claimed to be a part of the Darchula district of Nepal. As put across by the landlocked country, "The Nepal government is committed to protecting the country's external borders and it is determined on its principled position that such border disputes with the neighboring countries should be resolved through diplomatic channels after assessing the historical documents, facts, and evidence".

Understanding the past

Nepal and India share an open border along with a very unique relationship of love and squabbles at the same time. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi brought forth his ‘Neighbourhood First Policy’, one of the primary areas that gained attention was to bring about resolutions to long standing Indo-Nepal border disputes. In 2014, representatives from the Indian and the Nepali survey offices had met in Kathmandu to carve out the frontiers precisely. As elaborated by Buddhi Shrestha, former Surveyor General of Nepal, the country is often emotional about the lost one third of their land to the British Empire, during the Treaty of Sugauli in 1816. It had been clarified in the articles of the treaty that Nepal had to give up territorial claims of those areas which had become disputed before the war and accept the authority of the Company Raj over the Tista River in the east and to the Satlej and Kangra in the west. As a result, the border of Nepal had shrunk to the Mechi River in the east to the Mahakali River in the West. The foothills of the Siwalik range in the south represented the border with India. Two particular areas of controversy include Kalapani and Susta in the western and eastern borders respectively. In fact, the Kalapani region is still of great strategic and military significance as it is here that India, China and Nepal meet. This is also the region that has been held by India’s Indo-Tibetan Border Security Forces since the 1962 Indo-China war. One of the root causes of the conflict also emanates from the Mahakali River here which not only structures the border but also is claimed by both the countries to be originating in two different places. On the other hand, in the eastern region of Susta, there is the Narayani River which is the main demarcating border. However, with time and natural disasters like floods, the river has reshaped thereby causing 14,500 hectares of Indian encroachment into the Nepali territory. The Border Security Force of the Indian Government is also very strong here that has often caused a rift between them and the Nepali forces, often resulting in contention. The Boundary Working Group was working in full swing to clear out the 20 yard ‘no-man’s land’ that was found paving the way for technical support as well as high level diplomatic meetings.

Studying insecurity

One of the most vital reasons of insecurity for India is the presence of China, which shares 1439 kilometres of border with Nepal. Given the closeness shared between the two countries, it is but obvious for India to measure the situation from a geopolitical perspective. Nepal and China had also signed a boundary agreement after much dispute on 21 March 1960. There was also a dispute regarding the Mount Everest which was finally and formally settled when the visiting Chinese Prime Minister Chou En-Lai clearly mentioned that ‘Mount Everest belongs to Nepal’ in 1960. From here, the border related issues between the northern neighbour and Nepal have been much stable and peaceful, giving them the chance to bond over other integral issues like trade and connectivity. In this circumstance, the relationship between India and Nepal has become more or less complicated as a substantial understanding could not be reached. It is because of this lacuna that misreading and misconstructions keep happening. Such complications will remain if both the countries do not sit together to chalk out the borders in a formal and friendly manner, benefitting the governments as well as the people who form the primary essence of the border along with trade and transaction. India also has to move beyond its insecurity with regard to China and come to terms with the fact that featuring the right good neighbourliness is the right of every country. Thus, instead of fearing any growing relationship in its proximity, it must pay more attention to resolving those problems which are still in prevalence despite a long passage of time and also understand the psyche of landlocked nations while they are dealing with bigger powers like itself or China in the hope of making the nation heard and positioned in South Asia.

---

Country Reports

Afghanistan

Bollywood movie sparks row

The trailer of Bollywood’s new movie “Panipat” has sparked controversial discussions amongst the Afghanistan social media users. The trailer has presently become viral on Afghan social media and has sparked anger amongst some sections of the Pashtun tribe. While some Pashtuns have welcomed it as a correct representation of history, others claim that parts of the movie have been framed in favour of specific groups. The movie is based on how Ahmadshah Abdali an Afghan King attacked India.

‘Need for Press freedom’

Nicholas Kay, the NATO senior civilian representative, in Afghanistan stated that Press Freedom is essential for democracy. This comes as violence against journalists has been on the rise in the country in tandem with the growing violence in the other sectors. Almost 96 cases of violence against journalists have been reported in Afghanistan in the first week of October.  According to NAI reports there have been 7 cases in which journalists have died since the beginning of 2019.

Bangladesh

US plans big investment

Alice Wells, the top US State Department official for South Asia, expressed her country’s interest in investing in infrastructure and energy sector in Bangladesh. Well, US Acting Assistant Secretary for South and Central Asian Affairs informed that US investment would follow under her country’s Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS). She made these comments during her visit to the country.

Radical group banned

Continuing its resolve to eliminate racialism and militancy in the country, the authorities have banned a radical religious group named Alhar Dal, party of Allah. Explaining the reason behind the ban senior government official informed that the group’s activity was a threat to public security and safety.  Allahr Dal  is led by Matin Mehedi was arrested in 2006 following his association with  Jamayetul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), notorious for detonating 400 bombs across the country in August 2005. The group, claimed to be established in 1995, is an offshoot of JMB, the group banned after the countrywide blasts. Bangladesh has seen a surge in militancy in early 2000. Prime Minister Hasina after coming to power in 2009 declared countering militancy as the priority of her government.

Bhutan

One year of computerisation

Removal of ‘Cut-off’ point for class, instituting Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) as an autonomous agency, making teachers the highest-paid civil servants were the highlights of Prime Minister Dr Lotay Tshering’s address. He was speaking at the event marking the completion of government’s one year after assuming office on 8 November.

B2B ties with Swiss

The third bilateral consultations between Bhutan and Switzerland were held in Thimphu on 4 November.  The two sides exchanged views on the recent political developments in the two countries and discussed their bilateral cooperation, cooperation in the UN, and other multilateral organisations and the importance of the regional groupings. The two sides also held significant discussions on building business-to-business linkages and on the overall aspects of attracting foreign direct investments to Bhutan. The two countries established diplomatic relations in 1985.

Fibre-optic woes for IT

The absence of a fibre-optic back-up line proposed for nine years by Bhutan has prevented international companies from investing in the nation’s IT sector In the last few years Bhutan’s Fledgling IT Industry has taken off with the success of the IT Park and other initiatives. It is also one of the main enabling factors required for high-tech innovation and entrepreneurship to flourish. Bangladesh, which took a new submarine line connection a few years ago of 200 GBPs, has an excess of around 50 GBPs which it wants to export. Bhutan currently buys at around Nu 700 per MBPs per month from India through the Siliguri corridor.

Tourism policy by January

The Cabinet is readying the draft tourism policy and draft regional tourism management guidelines, after consultation with the Tourism Council and the Tourism Development Board, which will be finalised by January. At a recent dialogue on tourism, stakeholders in the tourism industry were unanimous in agreeing on a robust policy to better manage tourists and improve services. From budget hotels to elite tour operators, everyone in the sector agree that there should be a policy to better regulate tourists.

India

SC verdict on Ayodhya site

Setting at rest decades-old ‘Ayodya dispute’, a five-member Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court, headed by outgoing Chief Justice Ranjan Gogoi, has cited various legal and historic reasons to hand over the site to the Hindu community, at the same time directing the Government to hand over five acres of land to the Muslim parties to the dispute, for constructing a mosque in the vicinity. While there is overall calm across the country, and most political parties have welcomed the verdict, some of the affected parties to the court case have indicated their plans to move a ‘review petition’ in the SC, which may come up for hearing only after the  CJI retires later this month.

Deadlock still on in Maharashtra

Almost 15 days have passed since the declaration of the Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha elections results. But the single largest party in the state Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is still unable to form the government with its regional ally, Shiv Sena (SS) due to the ongoing political tussle over power-sharing between the two allies. The five year term of the present Maharashtra Assembly will expire on 8 November midnight. The alliance of opposition parties comprising of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress is closely watching the situation.

Maldives

Suspended Judge ‘coerced’?

In a development that can tarnish the reputation of President Ibrahim Solih’s fair name, trial judge Ahmed Hailam has alleged coercion by senior Government officials to give a ‘guilty’ finding against former President Abdulla Yameen in the ‘forex fraud’ case against him. The Judge said as much in a statement after the judicial watch-dog, Judicial Services Commission (JSC) ordered his suspension, hours before he was to deliver the verdict in the case.

Myanmar

More people displaced

Thousands of villagers fled their homes in Paletwa Township in Chin State as fighting intensified in the past week between the Tatmadaw (military) and the Arakan Army (AA). About 6000 villagers are seeking shelter in Paletwa after the military launched an operation to rescue a Chin legislator who was seized by AA fighters recently. U Ngwe Than, deputy chair of the Paletwa Township Refugee and Disaster Support Group, said three months’ worth of supplies have been donated to refugees in Paletwa. Although the government subsidises rice and oil, it is not enough, U Ngwe Than said. Over 3800 refugees live in Mee Zar village.

JICA assists Chin state

The Japanese Government through JICA is assisting Rural Development of Chin State and Ayeyawady Region through mechanization of Agriculture. The move comes after the signing of Grant Agreement (G/A) for the “Project for Provision of Agricultural Machinery and Construction Equipment in Rural Areas”, between Agricultural Mechanization Department (AMD), Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation (MOALI) and Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in Naypyitaw on 4 November 2019. Through the project, Japan/ JICA provides totalling (61) No. of Agricultural Machinery and Construction Equipment, which is summed up to four hundred and forty-four million (444,000,000) Japanese Yen.

Nepal

Dispute over border map

The new political map of India with the inclusion of new union territories -- Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh -- have created a misunderstanding between India and Nepal. In the new map, an important part of Nepal, the Kalapani area, has been portrayed within the Indian boundary. Although the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has completely denied it, the complication is still ripe, bringing back memories of border disputes between the neighbours.

Panel meet with EU

The 11^th European Union- Nepal Joint Commission has recently taken place in Kathmandu. Earlier this year, the EU expressed its desire to become not only its development partner but also its political partner. Several areas of mutual cooperation were shared and discussed including energy, trade, people to people interaction and other various aspects of digital web.

Pakistan

Visa must for Kartarpur

The Pakistan Foreign Office called the Indian government’s decision against availing concessions offered by Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan to the Sikh pilgrims visiting the Kartarpur Gurudwara a “blatant disregard of Sikh sentiments. On the other hand, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs Raveesh Kumar stated that there are differences between the Pakistan Foreign Office and other agencies. The two countries have a MoU according to which a passport is still required and this has not been changed.

PTI challenges EC

The ruling Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) has approached the Islamabad High Court to challenge the decision of the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to reject its application against an audit of the party’s foreign funding. PTI has requested the court to restrain the scrutiny committee that had been formed by the Commission from investigating the party’s foreign funding. The scrutiny committee of the ECP is headed by the director general law and consists of two auditors from the defence establishment.

Sri Lanka

Will Ranil retain the job?

With presidential poll scheduled for Saturday, 16 November, questions about the continuance of Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe continuing in office has become equally crucial, what with his party candidate and deputy, Sajith Premadasa, promising a change, if elected to power. In case, Sajith does not make it, the question of Wickremesinghe’s continuance does not arise as rival candidate and former Defence Secretary, Gotabhaya Rajapaksa would be accompanied by elder brother Mahinda R, two-term President, as his PM.

Bibliography

Afghanistan

Opinion Pieces

David Zucchion, “Captives or Defectors? Taliban Fighters Tell Conflicting Tales”, The New York Times, 7 November 2019 Mohammad Zahir Akbari, “The cause and consequences of unemployment in Afghanistan”, Daily Outlook Afghanistan, 7 November 2019

Editorials

Daily Outlook Afghanistan, “Regional Pressure on Taliban Likely to Result in Fruitful Talks”, 6 November 2019 Afghanistan Times, “Pinned hopes on IEC”, 6 November 2019

Bangladesh

Opinion Pieces

Muinul Islam, “The deeper politics of deep sea ports” The Daily Star, 4 November 2019

Editorials

The Daily Star, “Carbon footprint will increase exponentially”, 8 November 2019 The Daily Star, “Justice for Santals still elusive after three years”, 8 November 2019

Bhutan

Opinion Pieces

Sonam Tshering, “Court-annexed mediation: bringing justice closer to the people”, Kuensel, 2 November 2019

Editorials

Kuensel, “Promoting EVs as Bhutan’s transport future”, 2 November 2019 The Bhutanese, “No bans please”, 2 November 2019

India

Opinion Pieces

Karan Thapar, “’Unwriting’ history : creating myths”, The Hindu, 8 November 2019 Bhupesh Bhagel, “A farmer knows about the pollution crisis. But we also need to know his problems”, The Indian Express, 7 November 2019 Rajni Bakshi, “Beyond either-or views, many want temple at Ayodhya but don’t want to hurt mosque”, The Indian Express, 7 November 2019 Santosh Mehrotra & J Parida, “Comprehensive employment, industrial policies are necessary to address jobs crisis”, The Indian Express, 7 November 2019 Supriya Roychowdhury, ”Skill development schemes are creating a pool of poor, rural, women workers”, The Telegraph, 6 November 2019 Ashok V. Desai, “Every government has enormous power to harm people”, The Telegraph, 5 November 2019 Majid Maqbool, “The government has made journalism impossible in Kashmir“, The Telegraph, 4 November 2019 Ajay Gudavarthy, “The crisis in Dalit-Bahujan politics”, The Hindu, 4 November 2019

Editorials

The Hindu, “Judges for Lawyers: On clash with police”, 7 November 2019 The Indian Express, “Drawing dark lines”, 7 November 2019 The Indian Express, “All too human”, 7 November 2019 The Telegraph, “Battling hunger, Jharkhand shows the way”, 7 November 2019 The Hindu, “Safe, for now: On India opting out of RCEP”, 6 November 2019 The Hindu, “Back to the blackboard: On NEET crisis”, 6 November 2019 The Hindu, “Clearing the air: On Delhi’s air pollution”, 5 November 2019 The Indian Express, “Lost opportunity”, 6 November 2019 The Telegraph, “Clean air is a fundamental right, integral to the idea of citizenship”, 6 November 2019

Maldives

Opinion Pieces

N Sathiya Moorthy, “Maldives: Breathing ‘free air’ under Solih, but issues remain”, www.orfonline.org, 5 November 2019

Myanmar

Opinion Pieces

Joe Kumbun, “The Keys to Building Trust and Achieving Peace Are in the Myanmar Military’s Hands”, The Irrawaddy, 6 November 2019 San Yamin Aung, “In Myanmar, Courts Increasingly Used to Silence Criticism of Military and Govt”, The Irrawaddy, 1 November 2019 Annie Game, “Our Right to Information Is Inseparable From Our Right to Expression”, The Irrawaddy, 1 November 2019

Nepal

Opinion Pieces

Paban Raj Pandey, “The market is growing up”, The Kathmandu Post, 8 November 19 Chandra B Bhatta, “Prisoner’s dilemma”, Republica, 7 November 2019 Bhola Ram Shrestha, “Reforming capital market”, Republica, 6 November 2019

Editorials    

The Himalayan Times, “Use diplomacy”, 8 November 2019 The Kathmandu Post, “Tundikhel in its entirety should be open for public use”, 4 November 2019

Pakistan

Opinion Pieces

Sakib Sherani, “Ease of doing business?”, Dawn, 8 November 2019 Syed Mohammad Ali, “Lahore’s ‘airpocalypse’”, The Express Tribune, 8 November 2019

Editorials                                             

Dawn, “Climate challenge”, 8 November 2019 The Express Tribune, “Revolting reforms”, 8 November 2019

Sri Lanka

Opinion Pieces

Gnana Moonesinghe, “Who will hit the jackpot?”, The Island, 10 November 2019 Sanjana Hattotuwa, “Last election, and the next”, The Island, 10 November 2019 Tamara Karunanayakam, “MCC, ACSA, SOFA, incompatible under international law”, The Island, 9 November 2019 Lasanthas Kurukulasuriya, “Govt’s pre-election bid to rush MCC stalls under public pressure”, The Island, 8 November 2019 M S M Ayub, “Two wrongs make a right”, Daily Mirror Online, 8 November 2019 Dr Palitha Kohona, “Asia re-emerges as the Dominant Economic Power in the World : Opportunity beckons Sri Lanka”, The Island, 7 November 2019 N Sathiya Moorthy, “Battling for the PM’s job”, Ceylon Today, 5 November 2019 Jehan Perera, “The challenge of securing Tamil support”, The Island, 5 November 2019 N Sathiya Moorthy, “To be, or not to be...”, Colombo Gazette, 5 November 2019

Contributors

Afghanistan & Pakistan: Sohini Bose Bangladesh: Joyeeta Bhattacharjee Bhutan: Mihir Bhonsale India: Ambar Kumar Ghosh Maldives & Sri Lanka: N Sathiya Moorthy Myanmar: Sreeparna Banerjee Nepal: Sohini Nayak

• Neighbourhood
• Neighbourhood
• BJP
• Congress
• November
• SAW
• South Asia Weekly

The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.