ANALYSIS
Nepal: Investment Summit-2019, focussing on India
Sohini Nayak
The Nepal Investment Summit-2019, organised in Kathmandu on 29-30 March, was yet another effort by the K. P Sharma Oli government to ensure economic prosperity for the country. With the completion of one year in office, time seems to be ripe to engage in strengthening bilateral and multilateral trade negotiations, which would enhance the probability of fetching foreign direct investments (FDI) for the better. Around 600 hundred participants from 40 countries took part in the Summit, thereby easing the environment of doing business and establishing Nepal as a country of congenial business partnerships.
The one–window policy or one-step centre, introduced by the government through legislation, is specifically being promoted. The investors now would have a one stop facility with the provision of all the measures that are required to register the business or make it stable in a foreign country. As assured by Finance Minister Yuba Raj Khatiwada, all kinds of legal and regulatory aids and support would be ensured by the authority, making the whole process smooth and investor-friendly.
Economic cooperation
The relationship between India and Nepal has had its own share of past distraught as well as amicability. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the Government of India, Nepal is among the top 10 export partners of India (2019). In 2017-18, the total trade growth percentage between the two countries was 19.54, which is a fair share of economic transaction.
Indian Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale has also arrived to attend the summit. Moreover, the interaction between the two countries would scrutinize the ongoing projects which have been aided by India. Around 110 officials and investors have reached Nepal. Thus, apart from the ones which have already been in progress, the scope for further opportunities and connectivity ideas are being harnessed by the two countries.
According to the External Affairs Ministry in New Delhi, Indian firms occupy a major segment of primary investors in Nepal, with 30 per cent of the total approved FDI. In 2018, Indian companies had investment commitments of INR 5942.68 crores. Several sectors like banking, insurance, education, and telecommunications occupy the trading system between the two countries. In fact of matter, several Indian multinational companies like ITC, Dabur, Hindustan Unilever, VSNL, State Bank of India and other industries which primarily deal with construction of roadways, railways and bridges deserve special mention.
Former deputy governor of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) mentioned that Nepal must bring about improvement its current account position to engage in more investments. Foreign direct investment is also relatively low with respect to the other countries in South-Asia, keeping aside India. This investment opportunity can serve as a major push factor for developing Nepal as a growing economy in the global economic radar. This would also provide a convenience of collaboration between the government and the private sector, enabling further efficiency and also better bilateral dynamics, strengthening the strategic front between the two countries, as a whole.
Ensuring convenient route
Being a landlocked country, Nepal has had to face negative consequences with reference to its trade route. The Kolkata Port and the Haldia Port have been of extreme significance to the small Himalayan nation. In recent times, it has also made an attempt to lower down its dependence on India, with added partnership with China through the Belt and Road Initiative and the One Belt One Road (OBOR) Project.
However, the Indian government is now providing Nepal with several new openings and connections that would help the country in streamlining a specific route and make the investment summit all the more relevant and up to date. The Vishakhapatnam Port is one such instance. In fact of matter, according the Port Trust Authority of Vishakhapatnam, the Vishakhapatnam Port is now being regarded as the second gateway to Nepal after the Kolkata Port, from where bulk cargo is exported.
There is also a major facility of transhipment through the railway links with the East Coast Railway, making the process smoother and also easier to access. The route moves from Vishakhapatnam to Jogbani and Vishakhapatnam to Birgunj. With time, the system is also becoming much more sophisticated in its operation, thereby saving time and money. For instance, the electronic cargo tracking system (ECTS) was the first system of such nature which came to be enabled in Vishakhapatnam.
Escalating deficit
The escalating trade deficit between India and Nepal, despite the recent efforts or numbers must be remembered. Furthermore, the growing scepticism of India with the increasing liaison between Nepal and China is also present. Therefore, cautious measures must be garnered from the perspectives of both the countries, ensuring benefit for both.
The Investment Summit is one such circumspection which will help Nepal to remain in the good books of India, as always, ensuring investments from other ends like China as well, thereby guaranteeing open and easy access to sea routes. Such summits are seldom of any value if not fruitful in practice.
Bhutan: Bid to boost ties with Bangladesh
Mihir Bhonsale
Bilateral relations between Bhutan and Bangladesh are set to get a fresh lease of life with the Prime Minister, Dr. Lotay Tshering’s planned to state visit to Dhaka in the second week of April. This will be the Bhutanese Prime Minister’s second overseas visit following the one to India in December last year. Bangladesh is also the only country besides India to have a permanent mission in Thimphu.
The political relations between the two countries have been strong in the recent years and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s visit to Bhutan in 2017 bore a testimony to that. Hasina’s visit saw the two countries reach on a number of agreements on mutually agreed priority areas, besides vowing to work together to boost bilateral trade and connectivity.
This time round, besides rekindling the existing ties, the two countries are likely to work towards operalisation of the already signed agreements and to look for newer avenues for cooperation. The BBIN-MVA would remain an issue during the deliberations despite it is unlikely to have any consequence on Bhutan’s future inside the grouping.
Economic cooperation
Bangladesh is the second largest trading partner and export market for Bhutan with a trade volume estimated to be US$ 53 million as of 2017. Primarily, minerals and condiments comprised the bulk of Bhutanese exports while the latter’s imports included garments, pharmaceuticals, toiletries, fruit juices and cosmetics.
With Bhutan set to graduate into a developing country in 2023, Thimphu would eye at diversifying its trade beyond selling its highest grossing export item, hydropower to India and the market of Bangladesh presents it, this opportunity.
During Bangladesh Prime Minister Hasina’s visit, an MoU on Transportation of Bilateral Trade and Transit Cargo’s between the Bhutan and Bangladesh was signed. This will give landlocked Bhutan access to Bangladesh seaports of Chittagong and Mongla, thereby boosting Bhutan’s bilateral and third country trade. The impending visit by the Prime Minister is likely to discuss operalisation of the MoU.
Cooperation in sectors, including health and agriculture, are also on the cards. The Bhutanese Prime Minister is keen on getting Bangladesh’s medical specialists to meet the shortfall of qualified medical specialists in the country. Healthcare cooperation had already seen a start with Bangladesh handing over the first consignment weighing 35 metric tonnes to Bhutan in September last year. This was after Bangladesh promised to provide 258 varieties of essential medicines to Bhutan during Sheikh Hasina’s 2017 visit.
Despite remaining a major area of prospective cooperation between the two countries, the PM’s state visit will give deliberations over hydropower cooperation a miss. According to magazine
The Bhutanese, the trilateral 1,125 MW Dorjilung project involving Bangaldesh, Bhutan and India is put in the backburner.
New Delhi, which is a major stakeholder in the project, is yet to give it’s nod to the project. The Dorjilung project is important because, it is the first time that a third country is keen on investing in Bhutan’s hydropower sector and purchasing power. The project is likely to see an investment of US$1.25 billion from Bangladesh.
Rethink on BBIN?
The motor vehicle agreement involving Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN), which was deferred indefinitely by the Bhutanese Parliament, is likely to make it to the table in the meeting between the two heads of states when Prime Minister Tshering meets his Bangladesh counterpart. Bhutan withdrew from the BBIN-MVA agreement in 2017 as its parliament shelved the deal over perceived threats to the country’s environment and culture besides protecting interests of her transporters.
The government of Bhutan, after having assumed power in November, has received a delegation from the industries based in the south Bhutan requesting the government to reconsider the BBIN agreement. Foreign Minister Tandi Dorji, who received the industries delegation, had said that due to the non-ratification of the BBIN-MVA, Bhutanese trucks were facing accessibility problems while in Bangladesh.
The Lotay Tshering government is assessing the BBIN-MVA agreement against its impact on the country’s environment, culture and livelihoods of truckers. The government, for the time being, is said to have taken a neutral stance and is set to carry out in-depth research and factor in all issues before deciding its course of action on the agreement.
COUNTRY REPORTS
Afghanistan
No political agenda
According to the First Lady of Afghanistan, Rula Ghani, the programme of distributing money towards the transportation expenses of women was implemented in cooperation with the Afghanistan ministries of public health and finance. She rejected the claim of there being any electoral agenda behind the distribution of the money that was carried out in the eastern Nangarhar province. Critiques however have called the move an ‘act of betrayal’ as the money should have been distributed through local institutions.
Recalling diplomat
The Afghanistan government has decided to recall its ambassador from Islamabad following Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s comment of setting up an interim government in Afghanistan to resolve the deadlock in the Afghan peace process. He further called the Afghan government a ‘hurdle’ because of its insistence on direct interaction with the Taliban. Pakistan Foreign Minister, however, believes that recalling the ambassador is an unwise decision as Khan had no intention of ‘meddling’ in Afghanistan’s internal affairs.
Bangladesh
25 killed in Dhaka fire
At least 25 persons were killed and scores injured in the fire in a 22-storey building in the capital Dhaka. This incident of the fire has raised questions about the adherence to fire safety by the promotors of the high-rise buildings in the city. Fire in the high rises are not new to Dhaka, but this has attracted public attention since it followed just a month after the incident of fire in a Chawkbazar in the old town that killed around 70 people.
I-Day celebrated
The country celebrated the 49
th Independence by remembering the sacrifices of the martyrs and freedom fighters who fought against the Pakistani army during its liberation war in 1971. Thousands of people visited the national memorial in Savar, near Dhaka, to pay homage to the martyrs. Besides, a variety of events including gun salutes, parades, discussions, film screenings, and cultural events held across the country to mark the occasion.
Bhutan
Remittance spikes
The country’s total inward remittances had tripled to hit a record Nu 3 billion in 2018. Bankers attribute the surge in remittances to increasing number of people leaving for abroad to work and also the gaining momentum of the Central Bank’s Remit Bhutan initiative, which was launched in September 2016. Figures also reveal that the United States and Australia are the top sources for inward remittances -- Nu 1.5B and Nu 1.3B respectively.
Sunkosh stuck
Despite having been listed as one of the highlights of the celebrations of 50 years of India-Bhutan relations, the agreement for 2560 MW Sunkosh project is in a limbo because of differences over implementation modality between Bhutan and India. The project was conceived to be an inter-governmental project and New Delhi is believed to have agreed to the project initially. Probably in a sign of reduced trust, the Indian side wants to implement the Sunkosh project on a turnkey model with full management control, unlike the current system of shared management control.
Jail for drug-smuggling
The Phuentshogling Dungkhag Court sentenced four men to prison terms ranging from one and a half year to nine years for smuggling drugs. The judgment passed on 26 March also ordered the Office of the Attorney General (OAG) to dispose of the seized drugs in the presence of officials from the relevant agencies. More than 4,000 pieces of seized SP Plus capsules were handed over to the OAG by the court.
India
A-SAT tested
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, through an address to the nation, announced that India has conducted its first-ever Anti-Satellite (A-SAT) weapons test, successfully destroying an obsolete DRDO satellite in Low Earth Orbit. This places India among a select group of four nations, namely the US, Russia and China, who currently possess A-SAT capabilities. The government has also stated that this test, which does not violate any international treaty, is not aimed at any particular nation and also does not change India’s position against the weaponisation of outer space, as acquiring this capability is only for defensive purposes.
Congress promises minimum income plan for poor
Congress President Rahul Gandhi has stated that if elected to power, he will ensure the poorest of the Indian citizenry will be able to avail Rs. 72,000 per annum through his proposed “Nyoontama Aay Yojana”, or NYAY for short. Terming this the “final assault on poverty”, he said this scheme will benefit five crore families and 25 crore people across India. However, Finance Minister Arun Jaitely has termed this scheme as a “bluff announcement”, and an admission by the Congress party of their failure to remove poverty in all the time they were in power.
EC notice on Modi bio-pic
The Election Commission of India issued a series of notices to the makers of the movie based on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s life, along with two newspapers for publishing advertisements related to the film. The notice sent by the Election Commission to the production house and the music company involved in the making of the film seeks answers as to whether the movie is made with purely artistic intent or if it serves as surrogate advertising for the BJP. The Chief Election Commissioner has said that the parties the notices have been issued to have until the 30 March to respond.
Maldives
Yameen freed
Passing orders on an appeal by jailed former President Abdulla Yameen, the Male bench of the Maldives High Court has freed him, citing the failure of the prosecution to file a charge-sheet against him within the stipulated 30-day period. Yameen was arrested on lower court orders for allegedly seeking to influence witnesses in the larger ‘money-laundering case’ during his presidency. Moved to house-arrest on his arrest owing to health reasons, Yameen sent out a political message to voters saying that the freezing of his bank accounts has deprived his PPM-NPC combine of funds to face the parliamentary polls of 6 April, and by stipulating conditions, the Government of President Ibrahim Solih has also restricted his movement during the crucial campaign-period.
Myanmar
New ministers sworn in
Three newly appointed ministers in Tanintharyi Region government took oath at second Tanintharyi legislative assembly emergency session held on 28 March. The ministers are Yee Yee Cho (former Myeik constituency 2 legislator) as Planning and Finance Minister, Aung Thura (former Tanintharyi constituency 1 legislator) as Electricity and Energy Minister and Hla Htwe (former Yebyu constituency 1 legislator) as Natural Resources and Environment Conservation Minister.
Military ties with Vietnam
The Armed Forces of Myanmar wish to strengthen the friendship and comprehensive cooperation with the Vietnam People’s Army (VPA). Brig- Gen Aung Zeya, Myanmar’s military, naval and air force attaché to Vietnam, made the statement at a Hanoi banquet on 27 March hosted by the Myanmar Embassy in Vietnam on the occasion of the 74th founding anniversary of Myanmar’s Armed Forces. It was also stated that the developing bilateral relations between the VPA and Myanmar’s Armed Forces have continuously been consolidated and promoted.
Nepal
Bid to boost investments
As the Nepal Investment Summit gets inaugurated in full glory, the government has been pursuing an investment goal of around USD 30 billion. Targeting foreign direct investment in the major developmental sectors, the country is all set to manifest the dream of an economically prosperous Nepal. Prime Minister K P Oli and Finance Minister Yubaraj Khatiwada are all set to welcome the 600 foreign investors from 40 countries.
Reviewing India projects
India and Nepal have been collaborating with each other with regard to several projects. The ones on connectivity -- railways, roadways and waterways along with other infrastructural developments -- have been of special importance. Recently, senior officials from both the countries reviewed the status of such long standing projects, in a foreign- secretary level meeting. They also expressed their satisfaction for the same.
Pakistan
Anti-poverty plan
Prime Minister Imran Khan has rolled out a Rs.80 billion worth poverty alleviation programme called “Ehsas”. The aim of the programme is to uplift the downtrodden sections of society. This will raise the country’s social protection expenditure in backward areas to Rs 120 billion by 2021. The necessary amendment to the Constitution will also soon be made by moving Article 38(d) from the section on “Principles of Policy” to the “Fundamental Rights” section.
Charges ‘unfounded’
The Pakistani Foreign Office has conveyed the message that India’s allegation of Pakistan being involved in the Pulwama attack could not be substantiated and offered to examine any fresh proof if that was available. India had earlier submitted a dossier to Pakistan containing information in support of its allegation that Jaish-e-Mohammad was operating from Pakistanis territory. The findings have been shared with the Indian high commissioner in Islamabad, Ajay Bisaria who resumed his duties some weeks ago.
Sri Lanka
Dept budgets defeated
Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s government suffered an avoidable embarrassment when the departmental budgets for the Ministries of Megapolis and Internal Affairs, Local Government and Provincial Councils were lost in the parliamentary vote at the committee stage. The government can represent the budget by restoring the nominal SLR 10-cuts that the Opposition had introduced in the original allocation under 32 different heads, and has declared its intention to consult all concerned, including Leader of the Opposition, Mahinda Rajapaksa, before finalising its decision.
Bibliography
Afghanistan
Opinion Pieces
David Zucchino and Fatima Faizi, “
They Are Thriving After Years of Persecution but Fear a Taliban Deal”,
The New York Times, 27 March 2019
Mohammad Zahir Akbari, “
The Red Line of Afghan Women for Peace talks”,
Daily Outlook Afghanistan, 27 March 2019
Editorials
Daily Outlook Afghanistan, “
No Sustainable Peace without Women Participation”, 26 March 2019
Afghanistan Times, “
Corruption in trading”, 26 March 2019
Bangladesh
Opinion Pieces
Mazher Mir, “
Are we the next Syria?”,
Dhaka Tribune, 25 March 2019
Taslim Ahammad, “
Trade union: Employee right to form and operate”,
Dhaka Tribune, 24 March 2019
Bhutan
Opinion Pieces
Dasho Kunzhang, “
Uniqueness of the Bhutanese democracy”,
Kuensel, 23 March 2019
Editorials
The Bhutanese, “
Hotel woes and the economy”, 23 March 2019
India
Opinion Pieces
Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, “
Having Tested Its ASAT Capability, India Should Help Shape Global Space Norms”,
The Wire, 28 March 2019
Nityanand Jayaraman, Amitav Ghosh and T.M. Krishna, “
What We Need Is A Commons Manifesto”,
The Hindu, 28 March 2019
Harsh V Pant and Hasan Alhasan, “
Modi’s Middle East Deals Snub Iran”,
Foreign Policy, 26 March 2019
Devyani Khobragade, “
Women As Diplomats And How They Got There”,
NDTV, 26 March 2019
Maldives
Opinion Pieces
N Sathiya Moorthy, “Sushma’s Maldives’ visit lends economic direction to political ties”,
www.orfonline.org, 29 March 2019
Myanmar
Opinion Pieces
Macdo and Mads Barbesgaard (TNI), “
Mon State villagers should have say on investments”,
The Myanmar Times, 28 March 2019
Bethany Mandel, “
childhood illnesses are no joke”,
The Myanmar Times, 22 March 2019
Nepal
Opinion Pieces
Mahabir Paudyal, “
Rage and reason”,
Republica, 28 March 2019
Swaran Singh, “
South-South Cooperation”,
The Kathmandu Post, 28 March 2019
Editorials
The Himalayan Times, “
Give justification”, 28 March 2019
The Kathmandu Post, “
A job to be done”, 27 March 2019
Pakistan
Opinion Pieces
I.A.Rehman, “
The seeds of intolerance”,
Dawn, 28 March 2019
Talat Masood, “
Pakistanis and Indians deserve better”,
The Express Tribune,
27 March 2019
Editorials
Dawn, “
Karachi violence”, 28 March 2019
The Express Tribune, “
Starving despite food abundance”, 28 March 2019
Sri Lanka
Opinion Pieces
Kumar David, “Does Gotabaya reflect Lanka’s alt-Right?”,
The Island, 31 March 2019
Kusal Perera, “Where are people in these experts talks?”,
Daily Mirror Online, 29 March 2019
M S M Ayub, “Local rhetoric amidst submission to foreign powers”,
Daily Mirror Online, 29 March 2019
N Sathiya Moorthy, “Sri Lanka: Soft-launch takes some wind out of deep-sea fishing?”,
www.orfonline.org, 26 March 2019
N Sathiya Moorthy, “Throwing the baby out with bath-water”,
Ceylon Today, 26 March 2019
Jehan Perera, “International participation is necessary where State is a part of the problem”,
The Island, 26 March 2019
N Sathiya Moorthy, “
Casting aside caste and class”,
Colombo Gazette, 25 March 2019
Interviews
Kelum Bandara, “Absolute dissatisfaction with SLFP’s absenteeism from budget vote: GL”,
Daily Mirror Online, 27 March 2019
Editorials
Daily Mirror Online, “A divided Sri Lanka and UNHRC Report”, 29 March 2019
Book Reviews
Laksiri Fernando, “Post-war dilemmas of Sri Lanka: S I Keethaponcalan”,
The Island, 29 March 2019
Contributors
Afghanistan & Pakistan: Sohini Bose
Bangladesh: Joyeeta Bhattacharjee
Bhutan: Mihir Bhonsale
India: Ameya Kelkar
Maldives & Sri Lanka: N Sathiya Moorthy
Nepal: Sohini Nayak
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