Pakistan: Will Afghan peace deal help Islamabad in FATF??
Ayjaz Wani
Marking an end to their 18-year war in Afghanistan, Taliban and the United States signed a peace deal at Doha on 29 February 2020. The agreement was signed by U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, in the presence of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
Speaking on the occasion,
Pompeo called the moment “historic” and said the Taliban’s future behaviour, commitment and promises to the deal are very important for US’ withdrawal from Afghanistan. In Washington, US President Donald Trump
praised the Taliban. He also talked to Taliban leader Ghani Baradar over the phone for 35 minutes.
The increased symmetry between the US and Taliban was also seen on the battle field. Marine Gen. Kenneth Frank McKenzie, head of the U.S. Central Command and overall
commander of the US forces in Afghanistan and the Mid-East, said on 11 March that the US is giving a little support to the Talban in Eastern Afghanistan to crush the ISIS and other anti-American forces.
The peace deal was an outcome of President Trump’s campaign of ending the “endless wars” to suit his election campaign this year. The
conflict in Afghanistan, going on since 2001, has cost the US $2 trillion. It has also resulted in the deaths of more than 3,500 US and coalition forces and tens of thousands of Afghan civilians and security forces.
However, the deal has been made in haste as the US-backed government in Afghanistan was conspicuously excluded and confusions marred the historical agreement on the very next day. The exclusion of the Afghan government in the fragile US-Taliban deal is a reminder of the
Nixon agreement of 1973, when the US signed a similar deal with North Vietnam, without involving South Vietnam. Given the lack of an accord between the two sides in Vietnam, the US was reduced to a silent spectator as the North Vietnam over-ran the South in the next two years.
Afghan govt relegated
The civilian government of Afghanistan was relegated to the side-lines as the terms and conditions of the deal favour a strengthened Taliban. The four-part peace agreement lays down the roadmap for the withdrawal of the US forces while legitimising the Taliban as a political player. The fine print of the
agreement clearly also makes the Taliban a more dominant force than the Afghan civilian government.
AS per the agreement, the US will reduce its forces to 8,500 troops in 135 days and achieve the complete withdrawal in 14 months in return for a ‘strong’ commitment by the Taliban to not allow the ISIS, Al Qaeda or other anti-American forces to operate from the Afghan territory. The deal thus makes it implicit that the Taliban is recognised as the dominant force that could deliver on the expectations of the US.
Part 4 of the deal, without elaborating like the other three parts, makes permanent and comprehensive cease fire agreement an agenda of “intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiations”. However, within 24 hours of the signing of the deal, which aims to bring lasting peace in Afghanistan, major disagreements surfaced, triggering off widespread violence.
The Taliban
targeted Afghan security forces, killing more than 20 soldiers and carried out 43 attacks on checkpoints in Helmand on March 3 alone. However, the Taliban militia did not target foreign forces. The offensive came after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani told reporters that "there is no commitment to releasing 5,000 Taliban prisoners … It could be included in the agenda of the intra-Afghan talks, but cannot be a pre-requisite for talks."
The US, in retaliation, targeted the Taliban forces through air strikes in Helmand. The Taliban is persistent on the implementation of the
part one of the Doha agreement, that is a prerequisite for “intra-Afghan dialogue and negotiations,” which finds mention in part 4 of the peace deal. Taliban spokesperson
Zabihullah Mujahid said that the intra-Afghan talks will remain a non-starter, unless the Talibani prisoners are released unconditionally by the Afghan government.
Pull-out amid feud
As the US started pulling out its forces according to Part 1 of deal, political chaos in Kabul threatens to derail the peace process. The US’ troop withdrawal is independent of any outcome of the all-Afghan peace talks. The withdrawal came at the time when
rival leaders – President Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah were both sworn in as presidents in separate ceremonies on 9 March.
Ashraf Ghani was declared as the winner of September’s elections. Abdullah Abdullah, his rival, has alleged fraud, and also threatened to wreck the agreement, which could potentially spark violence all over again. While President Ashraf Ghani ordered the release of 1,000 Taliban prisoners, he hinted that Kabul will release the remaining 5,000-odd prisoners only if the Taliban did not attack Afghan forces.
However, the spokesman for the Taliban,
Suhail Shaheen, said in Doha that the conditional release of the prisoners was never agreed upon. “It is properly explained in the peace accord that first, the 5,000 prisoners would be freed and then the Afghan dialogue would be initiated.”
Marriage of convenience
The US’ withdrawal from Afghanistan means a lot for everyone in the neighbourhood, especially Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan and India. The deal largely suits all of these countries except India. Given the marriage of convenience between the Taliban and Pakistani military leadership,
Islamabad did yield to the US’ demands after the 9/11 attacks, but only in the hope that American military intervention would be limited and short that would not create a hostile neighbour.
Once the war got extended, Pakistani intel agencies covertly provided finances and equipment to the Taliban. Now the Doha deal creates a perfect scenario for Islamabad. “The Taliban and Pakistan’s military that backs them see this as their victory,” said
Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the United States and a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.
Pakistan will be far more comfortable working with the Taliban than the civilian government in Afghanistan, much to the consternation of President Ashraf Ghani. Given Pakistan’s brazen support to the Taliban,
Ghani said that keys to war are in Pakistan and the keys to peace are in Afghanistan.
The deal has given a geo-strategic edge to Pakistan in many ways. India’s relationship with Taliban has been tense. India not only favoured the US military intervention in Afghanistan but also supported the civilian government. From the last 18 months when the Taliban was holding talks with the US, Russia, China, Pakistan and other countries, New Delhi adopted a strait-laced approach.
As a result, New Delhi’s relationship with Kabul will surely take a hit as Islamabad will use its romance with the Taliban to create hurdles. China will also use its relationship with Pakistan to curtail the influence of New Delhi, given the geo-strategic and geo-economic rivalry in the region, despite its
worry of a security vacuum in the region post the US withdrawal.
The deal will also help Pakistan to come out of the FATF grey listing as the
US has committed to take off Taliban leaders from the UN Security Council’s sanctions list by 29 May. Most of these Taliban leaders are harboured in Pakistan and will surely help Islamabad in the next FATF Plenary in June.
Lastly, India must also be cautious as the Taliban has only guaranteed to ensure security of the United States and its allies on the Afghan soil. India is not an ally of the US and Pakistan now can have a free run to use the terror networks in the Af-Pak region for its parochial ends in Kashmir.
Bangladesh: Great leap after Independence
Joyeeta Bhattacharya
As Bangladesh celebrates the 49
th year of its Independence on 26 March, the world is looking at the country with amazement. Today, Bangladesh stands as a saga of growth and optimism, an image of the country that none had thought of when it got its independence in 1971. The success of Bangladesh is now increasing interest over it across the globe. Many countries want to study its model to understand the reason for such successes so that the model could be replicated.
At its independence, Bangladesh was considered a ‘basket case’- a country mired with economic hardship and poverty. The country gained independence from Pakistan after fighting nine month-long bloody battle that ruined almost all economic activities in the country. The war left Bangladesh with no financial resources and had to rely on foreign aid for reconstructing the nation and to provide necessities to its people.
After around half a century of independence, the country showcases a different picture. The country, now, is one of the fastest-growing economies in Asia with a growth rate of more than 7 percent. The country has qualified to become a
middle-income country by 2021 and is aspiring to become a developed country by 2041.
Drivers of growth
There has been no specific answer to the reason for Bangladesh’s exponential growth. Among the diverse reasons highlighted, one of the commonly recognised is initiatives in the area of human development, which was largely led by non-governmental organisations (NGOs). The country is home to some of the largest NGOs like the
Grameen and
BRAC. Bangladesh’s human development growth earned accolade globally, primarily successes attained in the fields of women empowerment and public health.
Manufacturing has been a contributing factor in the country’s achievement. Bangladesh is a global leader in readymade garment manufacturing. Notably, manufacturing is not limited to readymade garments only. Its product base is fast diversifying. Over the years, there have been an increase in the mid-level electronics and engineering goods production.
Already, the country has made its place in small ship manufacturing and is exporting across the world. India, a global economic giant and neighbour, is buying ships from Bangladesh also. The information technology industry is also witnessing a boom. It is also recorded to have the largest number of online entrepreneurs globally.
Government’s credit
In the country’s growth story, the government also deserve credit for supporting the NGOs and businesses. Although Bangladesh's political parties are famous for their rivalries, all of them have followed a consistent policy in supporting the NGOs or businesses. Sustainable efforts to maintain a flexible labour policy despite international pressure is a major indicator of the government’s policy to support the industries.
Cheap labour has been a major strength of Bangladesh and this has made it a lucrative place for various companies across the globe to invest in. The government has planned around a
hundred special economic zones to further ignite its economy, eyeing investment from various countries. Many top companies from India, the second-largest trading partner and the country with which Bangladesh shares two-third of its border, either have invested or planned to establish manufacturing units in the country. Indian companies are likely to invest around $13 billion, making it one of the largest investors in the country.
Corruption, radicalisation
The country, at the same time, faces certain challenges and requires timely attention that may enable it to enjoy the potentials to its optimal. The country is suffering from corruption and it is considered to be an impediment in attaining its desired goal. The banking sector has been the biggest victim of corruption and a large number of banks are struggling to keep themselves floated.
Of late, the government has begun taking measures to curb corruption and conducting anti-corruption drives. There is also need to focus on skilling man-power to take the country to the next level of growth. The country is blessed with a large young population but they need appropriate training to meet the demand of the various industries that are being established in the country.
Another important challenge is in controlling the tide of radicalisation occurring in the country. Despite being a Muslim majority country, Bangladesh’s society is liberal and this is an important factor for the country’s success. There is fear that the increasing hard religiosity might lead to the rise of conservativism that might, in turn, hamper growth, primarily in the sphere of human development. The government has taken several effective measures to check the rise in religion-based militancy. But still there is need to look into the influences of the radical groups in the society.
Despite these challenges, Bangladesh’s in-dominatable desire to prosper could remove all its obstacle in the path of
‘Sonar Bangla’ (Golden Bengal) dream.
Country Reports
Afghanistan
Prisoner-exchange
On 12 March, President Ghani reversed his initial refusal to release Taliban prisoners as mandated by the deal signed between the US and the Taliban, issuing a decree that makes prisoner release conditional. The decree promises the release of 1500 Taliban fighters to begin with, based on the preconditions that they sign a written agreement to not return to war and their biometrics be taken prior to release, among others. The Taliban have refused to accept the decree, stating it contradicts the agreement signed with the US.
Corona virus fear grows
The Public Health Department of the western province of Herat declared that there will likely be a sharp rise in COVID-19 cases in the country, in the days to come, owing to the porous border between Afghanistan and Iran. On 12 March itself, 10,000 Afghans are reported to have entered Herat from Iran. Of the 7 confirmed cases, 5 are from Herat, while all seven are among those who recently returned from Iran, as per officials.
Bangladesh
First deep-water port
The government this week approved construction of the country’s first deep sea port in Matarbari, near Cox’s Bazar. The port is likely to cost $2 billion and primarily funded by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). Japan will provide the loan at 0.01% interest. The feasibility report found the port has financial potential and likely to be completed by December 2026.
Centenary fete put off
Following the outbreak of pandemic coronavirus, the government has postponed a gala event to mark the birth centenary of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the leader of Bangladesh’s freedom struggle and father of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The decision was taken after coronavirus cases were detected in the country. After this, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was to attend the event, also postponed his visit.
Khaleda’s bail recalled
The Higher Court has cancelled its own permanent bail granted to former prime minister and opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia in a case filed against her alleging that she had defamed the Liberation War. The court withdrew the bail after the government claimed that Begum Zia was granted permanent bail without hearing it and the government prayed for holding a fresh hearing on her bail application. Begum Zia is now serving a 5-year sentence in another corruption case also.
Bhutan
COVID preparedness
A 76-year-old American patient who tested positive for the new Corona virus is under the national referral hospital’s isolation centre. At the end of their respective shifts, the medical staffs, including three doctors – two specialists and a general doctor, and seven nurses are also put under quarantine. Given that there is only one positive case so far, the medical superintendent said that the hospital has not faced any major challenges.
Tourism industry hit
Tourism industry around the globe is suffering major losses due to Coronavirus Disease (Covid-19) outbreak and Bhutan is no exception. The country incurred a loss of USD$ 2.2 M within the two weeks’ travel suspension the government imposed following the first Covid-19 case detected on 5 February. With the World Health Organisation (WHO) declaring Covid-19 a pandemic, the Prime Minister said it wouldn’t be wise to re-open Bhutan to tourists for some time.
No proper study on key areas
The Royal Audit Authority (RAA) revealed that the Gross National Happiness Commission (GNHC) has identified 16 National Key Result Areas (NKRAs) without a proper study. The RAA after reviewing the implementation of the 11th Five Year Plan found that there was no document to support the analysis conducted to come up with the NKRAs And due to this, the targets of the 11th Five Year Plan was not fully realised and achieved. NKRAs are the outcomes at the national level that the government needs to achieve over the plan period.
India
PM moots regional cooperation
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 13 March proposed that the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) should come to fight the coronavirus threat jointly. The call comes amid detection of corona virus cases after the population of the SAARC member-states. India has already been coordinating bilaterally with countries like Italy and Iran for evacuation. Recently, India had evacuated 44 citizens who from the Iranian city of Qom which is heavily infected by the virus. As the preventive measure, the Union Home Ministry has issued travel advisory which states that all existing visas issued to nationals of any country will stand suspended till 15 April. However, this would not apply to diplomats, officials, UN/international organisations, employment and project visas.
Maldives
Health emergency
With increasing number of COVID-19 cases reported from across the country, the Maldivian Health Ministry has for the first-time ever proclaimed a ‘health emergency’ for 30 days. With this, the Government has also banned travel between ‘resort islands’ and ‘inhabited islands’. The Election Commission has since re-scheduled the 4 April polling for the local councils, nation-wide, with a clarification that they would move the High Court for further extension, as required under the law, if the situation so dictated closer to the new date. Neighbouring India has sent a team of experts and also free medicines to face off what WHO has proclaimed as a pandemic.
Myanmar
Alert: COVID-19
Myanmar health authorities went on high alert on 12 March as WHO declared the COVID-19 virus a pandemic, urging all countries to fight it. While the country has yet to report any cases of COVID-19, the Ministry of Health intensified its surveillance at airports, seaports and border crossings to prevent entry of the dreaded pneumonia-like disease that has killed over 4600 people globally. As per the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Myanmar will only allow travellers from Italy, South Korea and Iran to enter the country if they could certify they were free of COVID-19. The government reminded all citizens that COVID-19 is a “notifiable disease”, and failure to report a suspected case is punishable by imprisonment.
Amendment rejected
Myanmar’s parliament rejected a proposed constitutional amendment that would have allowed the country’s de facto leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, to officially become president. The rejection had been expected because the proposal was opposed by the military, which under the constitution adopted when it held power, holds enough parliamentary seats to block any constitutional change. The defeated motion was one of several constitutional changes proposed by Suu Kyi’s ruling National League for Democracy party, with most expected to be blocked.
Nepal
Parliament on ‘hold’
As the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 as a pandemic, every country has been treading the extra step to ensure safety for people. Consequently, Nepal is also not far behind. The Parliament has been suspended for eight days, as decided by the Lower House, to avoid any case. In fact of matter, there were reports of the unavailability of proper water in the Parliament that created ruckus. In such a circumstance, Nepal must remain prepared with all necessary health facilities and basic amenities.
Pakistan
Direct flight to US
The United States Transport Security Administration (TSA) visited Islamabad International Airport to access the security systems of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA). During the visit, the TSA observed all the operations of the PIA covering its airport security, baggage handling, aircraft access, catering loading and handling services. The talks with the TSA started in 2019 and final assessment report is expected to come after two months.If approved, PIA will start direct flights between the two countries for the first time. The PIA flights to the US required an intermediate TSA-cleared stopover, leading the incremental costs for PIA.
Cricket without fans
Considering that Pakistan is reeling under the threat of corona virus with more than 20 confirmed cases, the National Security Committee of the federal government has decided that the remaining matches of the Pakistan Super League cricket will be played without spectators. All the stakeholders including Pakistan Cricket Board were consulted. The government is on high-alert to control the spread of the novel corona virus.
Esper visit put off
US Secretary of Defence Mark Esper has postponed his visit to India and Pakistan amid fears of the novel corona virus. He was scheduled to visit the region from 16 to 20 March and was scheduled in Islamabad on 19 March. Besides India and Pakistan, Mark Esper was slated to visit Afghanistan and Uzbekistan. The visit was considered significant, as following the US-Taliban peace deal signed on 29 February, the US has asked Pakistan to facilitate its implementation and also help start the intra-Afghan talks. Policymakers in the US feel that Islamabad can influence Taliban to fulfil their requirements of the Doha deal.
Sri Lanka
Poll postponement?
With the ground realities spreading further scare about COVID-19 pandemic in the country, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa has warned rumour-mongers against strict action. With this, doubts now prevail over the conduct of parliamentary polls being held on 25 April, as notified, though Election Commission officials have said that they are working onthe current schedule, as of now. Poll postponement, it is argued, can free the political class and cadres from mass-contact and also help focus the Government’s full attention on the corona virus fight, instead.
Bibliography
Afghanistan
Opinion Pieces
Barnett R. Rubin, “
Coronavirus and the Afghan Peace Process”,
TOLO News, 12 March 2020
Partha S. Ghosh, “
When a Superpower Loses”,
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Intra-Afghan Talks Likely to be Tough and Contentious”, 12 March 2020
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Will the Strategic Partnership of Taliban and Al-Qaeda Shift?”, 11 March 2020
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Women’s Role Key to Prosperous, Modern Afghanistan”, 8 March 2020
Bangladesh
Opinion Pieces
Ali Riaz, “
Modi’s cancelled Bangladesh visit is an opportunity”,
atlanticcouncil.org, 10 March 2020
Muslima Jahan, “
Women entrepreneurs still face hurdles”,
ProthomAlo, 8 March 2020
Bhutan
Opinion Pieces
Thakur S Powdyel, “
Gyal-Süng: The Nation Beckons”,
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Making most of the COVID-19 situation”, 10 March 2020
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COVID-19 is here”, 7 March 2020
India
Opinion Pieces
M.K. Narayanan, “
Delhi’s shame is India’s shame”,
The Hindu, 13 March 2020
Shah Alam Khan, “
Coronavirus threat is real, but responses to it are bordering on paranoia”,
The Indian Express, 13 March 2020
Shubhashish Bhadra & Varat Pande, “
Privacy law should not disproportionately increase cost of business for start-ups”,
The Indian Express, 13 March 2020
Editorials
The Hindu, “
Not a time to panic: On India’s response to coronavirus outbreak”, 13 March 2020
The Hindu, “
Danger ahead: On India’s road safety record”, 13 March 2020
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Serious reckoning”, 13 March 2020
Maldives
Opinion Pieces
N Sathiya Moorthy,
“Coronavirus and its meaning for two poll-time nations”,
www.orfonline.org ,13 March 2020
Catherine Haswell, UN Resident Coordinator,
“International Women’s Day 2020: To achieve Generation Equality”, The Edition, 8 March 2020
Myanmar
Opinion Pieces
Aung Zaw, “
Shadowy Drug Lord Wei Hsueh-kang’s Influence Still Felt in Myanmar’s Wa Region and Beyond”,
The Irrawaddy, 9 March 2020
San Yamin Aung, “
Flashpoints: Myanmar’s Eight Most Hotly Contested Constitutional Amendment Proposals”,
The Irrawaddy, 7 March 2020
Editorials
The Irrawaddy, “
As Myanmar Charter Change Fails, a Good Time to Remember U Win Tin”, 12 March 2020
Nepal
Opinion Pieces
Mukesh Adhikari, “Health for all”,
Republica, 12 March 2020
Prayash Raj Koirala, “Lagging in digitalization”,
Republica, 12 March 2020
KedarNeupane, “Road to apocalypse”,
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Editorials
The Kathmandu Post, “Oli and the ruling party must decide on an alternative”, 13 March 2020
Pakistan
Opinion Pieces
Khurram Husain, “
Virus fears”,
Dawn, 12 March 2020
Imran Jan, “triumphed”, The
Express Tribune, 12 March 2020
Inam ul Haq, “
The eclipse of shining India”,
The Express Tribune, 12 March 2020
Editorials
The Express Tribune, “
Our quarantine centres”, 12 March 2020
Dawn, “
Spectacle in Kabul”, 11 March 2020
Dawn, “
Coronavirus and the economy”, 10 March 2020
Sri Lanka
Opinion Pieces
Kumar David,
“Sajith in Gota’s and Ranil in Mahinda’s pocket”,
The Island, 15 March 2020
D B S Jeyaraj, “
Ranasinghe Premadasa’s ‘Citizen Front’ revolt in the UNP”,
Daily Mirror Online, 14 March 2020
Dr Upul Wijayawardhana,
“Last gasp of UNP? Or, finishing off Sajith?”,
The Island, 14 March 2020
M S M Ayub,
“No political virus please”,
Daily Mirror Online, 13 March 2020
Uditha Devapriya,
“The Opposition: Waiting for Godot”,
Daily Mirror Online, 13 March 2020
N Sathiya Moorthy,
“Sri Lanka: Working with India on the UNHRC front, now?”, www.orfonline.org, 12 March 2020
Capt Chandra Godakanda Arachchi,
“Mannar Basin and LNG infrastructure model for Sri Lanka”, The Island, 10 March 2020
N Sathiya Moorthy,
“Keeping religion and politics apart”,
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Jehan Perera,
“Sri Lanka can provide positive international example”,
The Island, 10 March 2020
N Sathiya Moorthy,
“Can divided UNP leaders do a Rajapaksa act?”,
Colombo Gazette, 9 March 2020
Interviews
Easwaran Rutnam,
“My father’s killers being protected: Ahimsa Wickramatunge”,
Daily Mirror Online, 12 March 2020
Contributors
Afghanistan: Shubhangi Pandey
Bangladesh: Joyeeta Bhattacharjee
Bhutan: Mihir Bhonsale
India: Ambar Kumar Ghosh
Maldives & Sri Lanka: N Sathiya Moorthy
Myanmar: Sreeparna Banerjee
Nepal: Sohini Nayak
Pakistan: Ayjaz Wani
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