Maldives: Preparing for local govt elections
N Sathiya Moorthy
The ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) of President Ibrahim Solih cannot have asked for more ahead of the nation-wide local council (LC) elections, slated for 4 April. Coming as it does after the party’s presidential poll victory in 2018 and the parliamentary elections last year, it is out to hit it big in the LC polls, thanks to the inability of the Opposition, which is divided at the top and demoralised worse at the lower-levels.
The latest to shoot at the ‘joint’ (?) Opposition feet is former Vice-President Mohammed Jameel Ahmed. He was sort of double-paddling since the presidential polls. He joined the Jumhooree Party (JP) of billionaire-businessman Gasim Ibrahim and, at the same time, led the defence team of jailed former President Abdulla Yameen, who has since been sentenced to five years in prison in a ‘money-laundering case’ with $ 5 m in fine.
Jameel has since quit the JP after Gasim Ibrahim questioned his ‘divided loyalties’ from public platforms. It is another matter that the JP had worked against Yameen in the 2017 presidential polls he lost as incumbent, yet went on to have a loose, last-minute seat-sharing arrangement with Yameen’s PPM-PNC combine in the parliamentary polls.
Less than half-way mark
The JP was a part of the four-party Opposition coalition that had fielded the victorious Solih, against incumbent Yameen in 2017. Yet, for the parliamentary polls, MDP boss and former President, Mohammed Nasheed, now Parliament Speaker, denied any combined pact for the parliamentary polls, and dropped two of the three MDP allies like hot bricks. The JP was the most important of the three.
For the parliamentary polls, Yameen and Gasim were allies of sorts. It was not unexpected that the MDP government would go after erstwhile Yameen presidency, for acts of corruption and unconstitutional and other illegal acts. Obviously, there were many takers in the queue for Yameen’s vote-bank, which was a very respectable 42 percent in the presidential polls though analysis of past elections would not have given him only around a fourth of the same.
In the parliamentary polls last April, the MDP swept in terms of seat-share but fell substantially short of the vote-share. The party won 65 of the total 87 seats, crossing the two-thirds mark very comfortably and even more convincingly. But the party’s vote-share fell from 58 percent only months earlier in the presidential polls to 46 percent – or, less than the 50-percent, half-way mark required for a future presidential poll victory.
The reasons were not far to seek. The newness of the new regime and more so the combined Opposition’s apprehensions about the possible return of President Yameen had gone with Solih’s election. The break-up of the four-party coalition dampened cadre-spirit equally so, though in the final analysis, the MDP had consolidated its position as the single-largest party more than already.
The JP had lost its vote-share to the MDP, just as one-time presidential hopeful Hassan Saeed had let much of his 17-percent vote-share go the party’s way after he had fought against then presidential poll victor Mohammed Nasheed (now Speaker, yes) and later backed him in the second, run-off round against incumbent Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, and again parted ways. JP’s Gasim Ibrahim, by seeking to play the king-maker too much and far too long, seemed to have met a similar fate since.
Silent battle
All of it has pointed to the possible hope for the revival of PPM-PNC combine’s future poll prospects more than anticipated, as Yameen’s 42-percent vote-share in the presidential poll cannot be explained by his own electoral base or to unsubstantiated allegations of vote-rigging in 2017. Not to miss a beat when he heard it, Yameen, the day before the re-constituted trial court was to hand him the jail-term, appealed to his cadres to keep the party alive and kicking even if he were incarcerated. That has since happened. Even though Yameen is in prison, his second-line has been making enough noises, though it is anybody’s guess if all of it would turn to votes in the local council elections without Yameen’s immediate presence and personal appeal for votes.
It is in this background, a ‘battle of succession’, if it could be called so, began, not necessarily within Yameen’s PPM-PNC combine but targeting the same from outside. The JP was the strongest and the most visible of them. But now after joining the JP in Germany before the 2017 presidential polls and later going on to head Yameen’s legal defence team, Jameel has revealed his undying ambitions, too.
A PhD-holder in criminal law from a reputed British University, Jameel’s is a curious case. He has served in every ministry over the past several decades. Starting off as a minister under Gayoom, who became the nation’s longest-serving President of 30 years since 1978, he was also in the successor Governments of Presidents Nasheed, Mohammed Waheed Hassan and Yameen, the last one as Vice-President. In between, he also led the campaign of fellow anti-Gayoom, non-MDP, non-JP independent candidate Hassan Saeed’s failed presidential poll campaign of 2008.
Fearing for his freedom, if not life, at the Yameen government’s hands, Vice-President Jameel ‘escaped’ from Maldives and lived overseas. MDP’s Nasheed, who had been sentenced to a 13-year jail-term in the ‘Judge Abdulla abduction case’ by a trial court, too, reached UK on ‘jail leave’ for medical treatment, anointed Jameel as the convenor of a new Opposition grouping against President Yameen, only to side-line him so very completely and so very effortlessly not thereafter, and in the much-anticipated way.
Jameel then joined hands with Gasim Ibrahim, who was facing Yameen government’s wrath on the tax and bank-loan matters, among others. At Frankfurt, Germany, Gasim declared Jameel his party president. With Yameen’s defeat in the presidential polls, Gasim, Jameel and many other self-exiled leaders returned home, along with Nasheed and other MDP leaders.
Residual charisma
Jameel’s camp-followers still fancy him as a front-runner against incumbent Solih or any other MDP candidate in the next presidential polls, due in 2022. As has become the Maldivian norm since the establishment of democracy in 2008, aspirations and attendant preparations for the next presidential polls began the day the results of Elcctions-2017 were announced.
Gasim still has a certain residual charisma, and the constitutional amendment introduced by the Solih Government has facilitated his return to electoral politics. The law has removed the 65-year upper-age limit for contesting the presidency, introduced by the Yameen Government, targeting Gasim and his own half-brother, President Gayoom.
Some circles anticipate that he would be too old, and may also suffer from voter-fatigue, because of over-exposure through the past 10-plus years in poll politic and campaign TV shows. There is also the unresolved issue of Gasim Ibrahim’s choice for Solih’s successful vice-presidential running-mate, Faisal Naseem,and his nominees for Cabinet berths in the MDP government stopped singing his tune from around the parliamentary polls.
The JP may thus be poised to looking for fresh faces for the presidential candidacy. It could be one of Gasim’s four wives or 14 children, some of whom have shown a leaning towards politics. Yet, it is too early to say, if the cadres would accept another of his clan as their presidential candidate with the same vigour they have worked for Gasim in the past.
There are other presidential hopefuls, too. Included in the list possibly is Ghassan Maumoon, estranged son of Gayoom’s four politically-aware children. Unlike his brother Farish, the presidential-hopeful of the immediate family until some time ago, Ghassan backed uncle Yameen and won one of the eight parliamentary seats that the PPM-PNC combine won last year. His aspirations, if any, may rest on the common belief that much of Yameen’s vote-share owed to the family name and forcibly inherited Gayoom votes from the latter’s long years as a ‘welfare leader’ of the masses, whatever his track-record on the democracy front.
With the result, they all want to stick to the by-now established Maldivian norm of all hopefuls contesting the first round independent of one another. The top-two contenders then go around canvassing the votes of the rest, who by then had established their own position with specific vote-shares.
With such high-stakes well into the relatively distant future, no party or leader in the Opposition wants to take a joint plunge just now, in what to some of them seem to be an inconsequential poll for the local bodies, nation-wide. They also seem to have concluded that the MDP would win after all, only seat-share and vote-share seems to be looked up to. In context, they remain a divided house, more divided than in the parliamentary polls, though now as then, they are not wasting vitriolic on one another, focussing independently on ‘anti-incumbency issues’ against the Solih government, which has completed over a year and a half in office.
Country Reports
Afghanistan
Call to annul poll results
Citing gross mismanagement and organizational neglect by the Independent Election Commission (IEC), the Council of Presidential Candidates has called for annulling the presidential election results, which declared Ashraf Ghani as the winner on 18 February 2020, five months after the polling was completed. The Council is terming the elections a rigged exercise and advocating the formation of a “partnership government”, while Abdullah Abdullah has declared himself as the winner and announced that he will form his own government.
Air strike kills IS terrorists
In an airstrike conducted by the Afghan forces on an Islamic State hideout in the Chawkey district of Kunar province, four terrorists were killed. The strike took place on Wednesday, 19 February 2020, based on intelligence received that the group’s hideout was located in the Tangai area of the district. No civilian or defence personnel casualties were reported after the incident transpired.
Reduced violence
The National Security Council (NSC) confirmed on 7 February 2020 that a the 7-day period of observing a significant reduction in violence across the country would begin sharp at midnight, in the early hours of Saturday, 22 February. The Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF) and forces of the Resolute Support have been instructed to halt all offensive operations, except in the instance that an attack is initiated by the Taliban. A US-Afghan monitoring team will observe Taliban activities during the 7-day period, as per sources.
Bangladesh
Down on terror-index
Bangladesh has moved up from the 19
th place in 2017 to 31
st in two years, in 2019, Md Monirul Islam, head of Counter Terrorism and Transnational Crime (CTTC) of Bangladesh Police, has said. Instances of terrorism are up across the world, and neighbouring nations like India and Pakistan are in the top ten on the list with high-risk of terrorism-strike, he said, adding that developed nations like the US and the UK too are on the high-risk category.
‘Human-chain’ for Khaleda
The Opposition BNP organised a human-chain protest, demanding immediate freedom for party boss and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia, jailed on corruption charges while in power, under court orders. Speakers at the protest said that there would be ‘no peace’ under their leader wsa released from prison.
Bhutan
Climate Summit in Oct
Bhutan will have a Climate Action Summit following the five-day Snowman Race in October later this year. The summit is aimed at getting commitment at the highest level for climate action from the business communities of the Asia region in a Summit Declaration. The Climate Action Summit seeks to garner pledges from the business leaders and multinational companies in the Asia region to reduce their carbon emissions and to effectively contribute to climate actions and initiatives. The Summit also aims to initiate the first-ever award from Bhutan for business leaders in the region who commit to remain Carbon Neutral. The one and a half day Climate Action Summit focused on carbon neutrality will take place following the five-day Snowman Race which will take place from 13th to 17th October this year.
India
Trump visit this week
The US President Donald Trump and US first lady Melania Trump is visiting India for their first official trip on 24 and 25 February. The US President will address a huge gathering at the newly built world’s largest stadium at Motera in Ahmedabad. The event is being popularly described ‘Namaste Trump’. The US President is also expected to visit the Sabarmati Ashram in Ahmedabad, Taj Mahal in Agra and would also pay homage to Mahatma Gandhi at Raj Ghat. The US President would also meet the top Indian business personalities at the US embassy in New Delhi.
Maldives
Education, a priority
President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih has stressed that education remained a key government priority. He made the statement while addressing a function held to mark the golden jubilee anniversary of Rinbudhoo School, in Dhaalu Atoll. In his speech, President Solih declared that the Government’s education budget attested to the importance accorded to the education sector. He noted that the administration provided numerous higher education opportunities over the past year. He also emphasised the role of holistic education, President Solih stated that the administration’s education policy was intended to create a responsible generation of productive, skilled and innovative citizens.
Indian deal off
The government has nullified an agreement signed with India's Lucky Exports and Triveni (LE Triveni) in June 2017.An official from the planning ministry confirmed the nullification and attributed the decision to LE Triveni's failure to complete the project within the stipulated time frame of 18 months.The MVR 149 million agreement contracted the Indian joint venture company with developing a water and sewerage system in Naifaru, Lhaviyani Atoll as well as a sewerage system and treatment plant in Veymandoo, Thaa Atoll.
Myanmar
No politics for military
President of Myanmar, U Win Myint, has recently remarked regarding the non-involvement of the military or the ‘Tatmadaw’ from politics or administration in general. He particularly mentioned that the army must not be associated with politics for the sake of avoiding any sort of dictatorship in the country. This is how the federal democratic union shall remain unharmed. The civilian government must always prevail.
Nepal
‘Balanced’ neighbourhood policy
At a recent public gathering, Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli has been very vocal in declaring a balanced approach towards its neighbours India and China. Given Nepal’s position as a landlocked country and a well known ‘buffer’, the world has been much interested in Nepal’s stance towards this particular issue. He clearly mentioned that the primary aim is to bring growth and prosperity to the country, thereby treading very carefully with ‘wise diplomacy’.
40 pc works complete
The Bheri–Babai multipurpose project has been one of the most important investments of the Nepali government, beginning in 2004. This project is all set to divert water from the Bheri River to the Babai River, thereby helping in irrigation of about 52,000 hectares of land in Banke and Bardiya districts. This will also produce 48-megawatt electricity. About 40 per cent of the work has also been completed. Nepal is banking on this project to move further on the path of development.
Pakistan
‘Grey-tag’ still on
Despite a frenzy of measures, including the sentencing of Lashkar-e-Toiba chief Hafiz Saeed, Pakistan failed to get itself out of the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) “grey list” in the task force’s ongoing plenary session in Paris. While an official statement of FATF plenary is still to come,the grouping appreciated Islamabad’s progressive performance on the action plan to curb financial support to terror organisations. Pakistan was found to have fully or nearly fulfilled 27 targets of FATF, and the grouping considered the measures satisfactory enough to not put Pakistan under its blacklist. FATF has advised Islamabad to achieve 100 percent compliance of its action plan and remove all strategic deficiencies by June 2020.
UN chief meets PM
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, during his four-day visit to Pakistan, met Prime Minister Imran Khan, the army chief and other officials. He lauded Pakistan’s efforts to improve the security situation as “absolutely remarkable”. Guterres expressed concerns about tensions along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. However, the opening of Kartarpur corridor between India and Pakistan, he said, provided hope and was a welcome symbol of interfaith harmony. He stressed on both the nations to de-escalate the military and verbal tensions through diplomacy and dialogue in accordance with the Charter of United Nations and resolutions of the Security Council. He also attended an international conference on Afghan refugees in Pakistan and urged the world to support host countries of refugees.
British MPs in PoK
A delegation of British parliamentarians, including Labour MPs Imran Hussain, Tahir Ali and Judith Cummins, Tory MPs Sarah Britcliffe, James Daly and Mark Eastwood, Lib Dem politician and lifetime peer Qurban Hussain and Labour councillors Harpreet Uppal and Yasmine Dar, visited Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK). The MPs praised the Pakistani government for its courtesy and for according them the freedom to visit anywhere and meet anyone in the PoK. MP Debbie Abrahams, who was denied visa by New Delhi on 17 February, criticised the abrogation of Article 370 by India and said that, “we can’t allow the tragedy that has befallen Kashmiri people to continue in this way and particularly after the 5th of August last year”.
Sri Lanka
Quitting UNHRC process
The Sri Lankan Cabinet of Ministers has decided to quit UNHRC Resolutions 30/1 and 40/1 on ‘war-crimes probe’, co-authored by the predecessor Government after Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa announced the decision through a media release. The Cabinet specifically exonerated then President Maithripala Sirisena and laid all blame on the ruling UNP of then Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. The Cabinet statement however indicated that the Government of President Gotabhaya Rajapaksa would continue to work with the UNHRC and other UN human rights organisations.
Rajapaksa, Sirisena sign poll-pact
As leaders of the respective political parties, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa (SLPP) and former President Maithripala Sirisena (SLFP) have signed a new electoral accord for the upcoming parliamentary polls, expected any time soon. In doing so, the two leaders have created a new alliance with a new name and have also announced new office-bearers, most of whom are from the ruling SLPP-led alliance, already in power. Meanwhile, the Opposition UNP is still groping in the dark over bringing former Prime Minister and party ‘Leader’ Ranil Wickeremesinghe and incumbent Opposition Leader, Sajith Premadasa, the defeated presidential candidate of the combine, to come on the same page as the new structure for the parliamentary polls
Bibliography
Afghanistan
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Peace in Afghanistan will be victory for the Taliban, a failure for the West”,
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What We, the Taliban, Want”,
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Opposing Election Results Likely to Generate National Crisis”, 20February 2020
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Single Approach Essential for Peace Talks”, 20 February 2020
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Bhutan
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When the legislature derails essence-innocent citizens face injustice”,
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Facing natural disasters”, 18 February 2020
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Stop spreading rumours”, 17 February 2020
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Bhutan and Alcohol”, 15 February 2020
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Losing a nation, in seven acts”,
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Call me by any other name”,
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Opinion Pieces
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Nepal
Opinion Pieces
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Editorials
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Pakistan
Opinion Pieces
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Kashmir: a theatre of war?”The Express Tribune, 21 February 2020.
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Kashmir and other traumas” Dawn, 18 February 2020.
Sri Lanka
Opinion Pieces
Lucien Rajakarunanayake
, “Trump card-players in human rights violations”, Island, 22 February 2020
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Daily Mirror Online, 22 February 2020
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Lasanda Kurukulasuriya,
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M S M Ayub,
“Sainthamaruthu: Agitations, hopes and change of fortunes”, Daily Mirror Online, 21 February 2020
Kelum Bandara,
“SL heading for face-off at Geneva”, Daily Mirror Online, 20 February 2020
N Sathiya Moorthy,
“For Rajapaksas, why fear elections when UNP is there”,
Ceylon Today, 18 February 2020
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Contributors
Afghanistan: Shubhangi Pandey
Bangladesh: Joyeeta Bhattacharjee
Bhutan: Mihir Bhonsale
India: Ambar Kumar Ghosh
Maldives & Sri Lanka: N Sathiya Moorthy
Myanmar: Sreeparna Banerjee
Pakistan: Ayjaz Ahmad Wani
Nepal: Sohini Nayak
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