If the Kyoto Principles of “common but differentiated responsibility” are to be implemented, COP28 in Dubai must support the right of economies to pursue contextual options for decarbonisation
The Kyoto Protocol of 1995 enshrined the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities” as the cornerstone for climate action. Ending the degradation of the global commons remains a priority as evidenced by 193 parties to the Paris Agreement filing nationally determined targets, with 151 parties submitting enhanced targets in 2021. This remains a transformative moment in global climate action, given the high level of blind (many would say unwarranted) trust reposed by the Global South in the promises and rhetoric of advanced economies.
This is clear from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2023 report which states “10 percent of the population with the highest income accounted for nearly half (48 per cent) of emissions (in 2022) with two-thirds of this group living in developed countries”. Poverty, clearly, is not the biggest polluter, wealth has that privilege.
Sadly, this trust has not been fully reciprocated. This is clear from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) 2023 report which states “10 percent of the population with the highest income accounted for nearly half (48 per cent) of emissions (in 2022) with two-thirds of this group living in developed countries”. Poverty, clearly, is not the biggest polluter, wealth has that privilege.
Overshoot versus emission targets
As per the first stock take of actions taken and likely outcomes (2020 to 2025) under the Paris Agreement, advanced economies, other than the European Union, have not lived up to their targets for reducing current emissions. The EU, which accounts for 6 percent of the world’s population, has a near proportionate share in current (2022) global emissions of 7 percent. Conversely, versus a small population share of 4 percent, the current emissions share in the United States (US) is a massive 11 percent. China is the largest emitter but a shade better, relative to its population. For a population share of 18 percent, its share in emissions is 30 percent. In comparison, thrifty India comes in best with a population share of 18 percent (same as China) but a share in emissions, of just 7 percent. However, emissions in India are still growing, unlike China which might have crossed its peak. India is scheduled to peak between 2035–2045 with a 2070 net-zero target versus China’s and other advanced economies’ targets in 2060 and 2050 respectively.
Managing current emissions is just half the story. The unattended other half is the stock of 1 trillion tons of Green House Gas (GHG) emissions (share of CO2 is 75 percent) accumulated since 1890. The US has the largest share in historical emissions at 19 percent, the EU and China, each at 13 percent followed by India with just 4 percent and the rest of the world at 47 percent.
A matter of priorities—managing the flow of emissions first
It was sensible in 2015 to try and first stem the annual flow of emissions before tackling the heavier task of reversing their historical stock. At 54 billion tons of GHG per year, global emissions increase the stock in the stratosphere at the rate of 5.4 percent per year. By 2035 the stock would have doubled to 2 Gt of GHG. This is why reaching net zero early was important to avoid the tipping point between 1.5 °C (aspirational) and 2°C (achievable at the time) maximum increase in ambient temperature. That opportunity no longer exists and targets shall be missed.
Coal—a sacrificial lamb offered as the prime culprit at Glasgow COP26
Every mass movement needs a credible cause to rally around. COP26 at Glasgow chose “The end of coal” a cause which would result in the least discomfort for advanced economies. Conveniently, oil, which has a 35-percent global share in fossil fuels consumption and production which stimulates several advanced and middle-income economies, was spared. Fingering coal as the prime culprit for curbing emissions was also convenient because most advanced economies have access to the more expensive substitute of natural gas or liquified natural gas, produced domestically or imported, from North America, West Asia, Norway, Russia, Australia, Malaysia, and Indonesia. China imports gas from Russia to boost significant but insufficient domestic supplies. Conversely, it is hard for the Global South to switch from cheap (but dirty) coal to expensive (but relatively clean) and mostly imported gas due to pervasive fiscal and foreign exchange constraints, higher interest rates, and inflation unleashed by the Ukraine conflict.
Long-term strategic choices must be inclusive and not the easiest techno-fix
If the Kyoto Principles of “Common but Differentiated Responsibility” are to be implemented in a collaborative spirit, COP28 in Dubai must forcefully support the right of economies to pursue contextual options for decarbonisation. A seemingly, “self-serving” strategy which protects oil, but targets coal, would be completely unacceptable. Carbon Capture Use and Storage (CCUS) technology is far more advanced and proven than the new technologies of Green Hydrogen (GH2) seeking to replace coal. GH2 might mature and become commercially viable eventually. But what of the intervening two decades till 2045, while it remains expensive and in the demonstration stage, given the characteristic safety constraints in managing hydrogen storage and transport?
A seemingly, “self-serving” strategy which protects oil, but targets coal, would be completely unacceptable.
An interim transition fuel
An interim transition fuel must be found to support industrial demand for heat and reliable base load power generation, to aid the integration of renewables into grids. Nuclear power is an alternative. However, safety and security concerns and long gestation periods inhibit its widespread applicability. Hydropower remains constrained by uncertain weather patterns, the ever-expanding demand for food production and the need to expand areas under forests as a sink for recycling CO2. Coal remains an energy resource which is widely available with mature technology. The missing piece is the development of contextual carbon capture and use or storage technology. Allocating more resources towards this end, competitively, could enhance emissions reduction before 2035.
Priority: Reducing the stock of GHG concurrently with reducing annual emissions.
The stock of about 1 trillion tons (1 Gt) of GHG exhausts any space available for additional annual emissions going forward, even for reaching a maximum ambient temperature of 2°C with a 66-percent probability by 2050. Concurrent, immediate steps to reduce the stock of emissions are now an immediate priority to compensate for underachieved targets to reduce current emissions. Conventional techniques like enhancing forestry or reducing methane emissions from rice cultivation do not have the potential to scale up quickly.
Direct Air Capture (DAC)—the removal of CO2 directly from the air or dissolved CO2 in water—must be fast-forwarded to fix it into inactive minerals or used as an industrial input. As an adjunct, the technology for capturing and using or storing carbon from the combustion of coal and oil could also benefit from multi-purpose DAC/CCUS complexes and infrastructure.
This approach is seemingly messier and more “backward-looking” than investing in “brave” new technologies like green hydrogen or grid-scale battery storage, heralding a new industrial era. The truth is that often, the easiest path ahead is never the least explored one. Quite often, the least cost options—the need of the hour—are a mix of existing knowledge, an intuitive reimagining of what already exists and steadfast application of time and money—a task fit for governments to put their weight behind.
Sanjeev Ahluwalia is an Advisor at the Observer Research Foundation
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Sanjeev S. Ahluwalia has core skills in institutional analysis, energy and economic regulation and public financial management backed by eight years of project management experience ...
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