The Russian city of Kaliningrad witnessed a massive anti-government demonstration, estimated to be the biggest one in a decade on 30 January. Kaliningrad is not part of mainland Russia -- it is an exclave on the Baltic coast surrounded by Poland and Lithuania and serves as the base of the Russian Baltic Fleet. According to the organizers, nearly 12,000 people participated in the demonstration forcing Moscow to take note and send a high-level team to the city. Meanwhile protest rallies were reported from other cities like Moscow and St Petersburg the following day. However, these were separate from the Kaliningrad protest and part of the series of protests called the Strategy 31 movement. It plans to hold rallies on 31st day of every month (with 31 days) demanding the "right to gather peacefully, without weapons, to hold meetings, rallies, demonstrations, marches and pickets" as provided by Article 31 of the Russian Constitution.
While the riot police quickly dispersed the protestors in major cities, the Kaliningrad demonstration went on uninterrupted. In the forefront was the Spravedlivost (Justice), a non-political movement floated by the vehicle dealers in the region who were affected by the government’s decision to increase the import tariffs on used automobiles. Kaliningrad like Vladivostok has a thriving used-car market serviced by imports from Europe. Russian government, as part of its economic restructuring measures imposed protectionist tariffs on used cars ostensibly to help the indigenous AvtoVAZ which manufactures Lada. The situation became worse with Governor Georgy Boos’ decision to increase the transport tax in the region. The governor withdrew this step a couple of days before the demonstration sensing the mounting opposition against this measure. The organizers of the demonstration went ahead nevertheless and the rally witnessed an outpouring of anger against the governor, the United Russia party and the federal government including Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. The demonstration was supported by most of the opposition groups like the Solidarity, the Communist Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, Yabloko, the Patriots of Russia party, and the banned National Bolshevik Party (NBP).
The protestors blamed governor Boos, Putin and the United Russia party for the economic hardship faced by the people of Kaliningrad. Boos was appointed by Putin in 2005 when he was the President and the protestors demanded that he shall be removed and not given an extension when his term gets over later this year. They also wanted a return to the old practice of popular elections to the post of local governors. Towards the end of the rally, a resolution was passed which demanded that the transport tax hike be withdrawn and the regional government be divested of the power to set the base tax rate. Other demands included a tax-freeze till the economic recession is over, abolition of the protectionist tariffs on vehicle imports, and a raise in pensions.
It was evident that Moscow has taken serious note of the event as President Medvedev immediately dispatched his envoy to the northwest region Ilya Klebanov and Deputy General-Prosecutor Aleksandr Gutsan to Kaliningrad for an emergency meeting with Boos as well as the local leaders. Boos was summoned to Moscow the next day. Meanwhile the United Russia party sent a delegation and dropped hints about replacing Boos from the post. Some observers dismissed this option untenable because it could set a precedent leading to protests in other regions too where the governors are unpopular. As part of the damage-controlling-mechanism, senior party functionary Sergei Neverov said that United Russia officials "would be meeting with factions in the regional and city parliament, civic organizations, and representatives of various groups to clarify reasons behind the protest". The party however, tried to downplay the event by arguing that the heavy popular participation was the result of a disinformation campaign by the opposition groups and that the participants were deceived by the organizers. Governor Boos undermined his already tenuous position by issuing an official statement asking Kremlin to restore the "against all candidates" option on the ballot papers-a provision abolished in 2006. He however, backtracked from the demand the very next day and wrote on his website that bringing back the option is "expensive and leads nowhere". The first casualty of the Kaliningrad event perhaps is Oleg Matveichev, the Kremlin official responsible for domestic politics in northwestern Russia, who has been sacked from his post in the aftermath.
There are also allegations that the protest had received the support of certain powerful groups within the United Russia party itself who are opposed to Governor Boos. According to Nikolai Petrov of the Carnegie Moscow Center, "the size and timing of the protest indicate that some members of the regional political elite are participating in or at least backing it". Other opinions hinted at Boos’ close ties with Moscow mayor Yuri Luzhkov and the fraying relations between the mayor and Kremlin might have played a part.
The political situation took another twist with the comments of Sergei Mironov, Speaker of the Federation Council and the leader of the Just Russia Party-perceived to be closely allied with Putin. Mironov criticized on television Putin’s budget and his plans for tiding over the economic crisis. He wrote in Nevskoe Vremya newspaper that "Russians who live below the poverty line?. cannot be interested in the status quo". The issue has made headlines with prominent United Russia leaders joining the issue and calling for Mironov’s resignation or his recall from the Federation Council. Interestingly, Nezavisimaya Gazeta suggested that the Mironov-United Russia war of words is an orchestrated plot to divert attention from the Kaliningrad rally. Sergei Obukhov, a senior member of the Russian Communist Party told Echo Moskvy radio that the Mironov episode is an attempt to "get public attention away from the problems that led to the mass protest erupting in the Kaliningrad region."
President Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin are yet to speak about the Kaliningrad demonstration and it is impossible to predict its long-term impact over mainland Russia. As of now the popularity of both the leaders remain comfortably high. The immediate provocation behind the demonstration was local in nature like the hike in the transport tax, raise in customs tariffs and the unpopularity of the governor. Still, by being the largest anti-government gathering after Putin became the man in charge, and the fact that it brought together all the bickering opposition groups, the Kaliningrad demonstration merits attention and has already forced the authorities to take serious note.
Ajish P Joy is an Associate Fellow with Observer Research Foundation
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