The outcome of the February 18 elections was predetermined and the situation would only get worse as a consequence, said well-known media personality and commentator Saeed Naqvi at a talk organised by Observer Research Foundation on the Situation in Pakistan on the eve of elections on Saturday (Feb. 16).
The outcome of the February 18 elections was predetermined and the situation would only get worse as a consequence, said well-known media personality and commentator Saeed Naqvi at a talk organised by Observer Research Foundation on the Situation in Pakistan on the eve of elections on Saturday (Feb. 16). Mr Naqvi, who was in Pakistan early this week, said stakes were too high for any changes in the status quo. ``The outcome is preordained.``
The meeting was chaired by Amb. M Rasgotra, President ORF Centre for International Relations and Chairman, National Security Advisory Board.
Mr Naqvi, Advisor to ORF Chairman, said two factors were playing a role in the political developments in Pakistan. The US-led War on Terrorism was one. He said Pakistan was a strategic ally of the US in this war and was paying an exceptionally heavy price for it. ``The war on terror is going one step forward, two steps back. The blowback will be severe in Pakistan. The truth is not being told, `` he said.
The second factor is the U.S. election which, he said, is`` taking an unusual turn.`` He said the Americans were too busy with their own elections to be concerned about what was happening in Pakistan. The attention required to see Pakistan through to a post-Musharraf phase was probably lacking in Washington, he said. Status quo, therefore, is what is being aimed at.
Talking about the political situation, Mr Naqvi said there were quite a few absolute imponderables. He said even now, just little more than a day left for the elections, there was wide spread skepticism about the elections. There are doubts whether the elections would be held at all, and if held, whether there would be rigging, and if yes, then how much. The general assumption, he said, was that the elections would certainly be rigged but the extent remained speculative.
So why is such an election being held? Mr Naqvi said the US was keen on putting together some semblance of civilian government in Islamabad without weakening President Musharraf. Benazir Bhutto’s return to Pakistan was part of that script which went horribly wrong when she was killed in December last. He said Musharraf’s own blunders in the past one year queered the pitch for an election. Nawaz Sharif’s return with the intervention of his Saudi patrons made it difficult for Musharraf to wriggle out of the situation.
Making an assessment of the political fortunes, he said Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) was certainly in a strong position while Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N would have to wait for the next chance. He believed that Pakistan Muslim League-Q, the King’s Party which led the coalition in Islamabad till recently, would be trounced. He said PML-N had a chance to win the provincial assembly elections in Punjab and Nawaz Sharif’s younger brother could therefore become the Chief Minister.
Mr Naqvi said the religious parties had little chance of retaining their 2002 results. The Muttahida Majlis e Amal (MMA), the religious alliance, was already divided over the issue of taking part in the elections. One of the MMA’s key leaders, Maulana Fazlur Rehman was quite keen on being part of the ruling establishment. The Maulana’s claim was that if his party was marginalised in the current elections, there was a serious threat of his leaders and cadre drifting towards extremist and terrorist groups.
The biggest danger to Pakistan, he said, comes from the Pashtun anger, fanned primarily by the military offensive taking place in the tribal areas of Pakistan. More than 20 per cent of the officers and men of the Army are drawn from Pashtuns who are likely to grow embittered over the military operations in Pashtun-dominated areas. He said Afghanistan was supposed to provide Pakistan with strategic depth. Instead, the Afghan conflict is about to devour a chunk of Pakistan.
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