The enthusiasm bordering on euphoria generated by the talks of Ms.Condoleezza Rice, US Secretary of State, with Indian leaders during her recent visit to New Delhi has been somewhat dissipated by the announcement of the decision of President George Bush to clear the sale of the latest version of the F-16 aircraft to Pakistan.
Pakistan's request for the aircraft has been pending for many years and President Pervez Musharraf had been repeatedly pressing President Bush to clear the sale. It was known since last November that Mr. Bush was favourably inclined towards it. The only lingering question was when he would do so.
The notification to the Congress of the proposed clearance shortly after the return of Ms.Rice from her Asian tour, which took her also to Pakistan and China, indicates that the decision had apparently been taken even before her Asian tour and that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was informed by Mr.Bush of the decision after her return in order to avoid hurting Indian sensitivities, which would have been the case had the announcement been made during her stay in Islamabad.
The verbal sops sought to be provided to India by Ms.Rice in the form of offers for the sale of F-16 and F-18 aircraft and their co-production in India and to consider the supply of nuclear power stations to India cannot hide the basic reality that keeping Musharraf sustained in power and reducing Pakistan's sense of vulnerability vis-a-vis India in respect of its conventional military strength continue to be a cornerstone of the US policy in South Asia, whatever be the sensitivities of India in this matter.
In Washington's perception, in South Asia, Pakistan is more important for safeguarding US national interests than India. In the short and medium terms, the US interests in this region would be focused on preventing another 9/11 in US homeland by doubling up the hunt for the Al Qaeda remnants in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region, keeping Musharraf and President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan in power and neutralising Iran's nuclear capability before it starts posing a threat to Israel.
Pakistan's co-operation is and will continue to be more vital for achieving these objectives than the goodwill of India. All the sweet talk of the US wanting to help India emerge as a major power of the region is just meant to tickle India's vanity and dilute its hurt feelings.
The supply of the F-16s would strengthen Musharraf's position in Pakistan's Armed Forces and help him to project himself to his people as a leader who succeeded in getting this nuclear delivery capable aircraft from the US whereas all others who were in power before him since 1990 had failed.
The Pakistan Air Force would not acquire any technological and operational edge over the Indian Air Force as a result of this deal. The IAF would not spend sleepless nights over it. Its real significane would be in the psychological boost which it would give to Musharraf and his Air Force by helping to reduce its sense of vulnerability.
Despite the post 1990 US sanctions, the Pakistan Army had managed to maintain its strength and capability. However, the sanctions badly affected the Pakistan Air Force and Navy, creating in them feelings of vulnerability. The Chinese stepped in as major suppliers in place of the US, but technologically, the Chinese equipment is no match for the USA's or Russia's. That is why, the Chinese Armed Forces themselves prefer Russian equipment to their own for their modernisation.
If and when the F-16s arrive, the PAF officers would spend less sleepless nights than they have been doing now.
There is another reason why Musharraf should be doubly happy over the F-16 deal. If as a result of the US pressure on China and North Korea, the flow of missiles and spare parts from these countries dries up in future, he would once again need nuclear delivery capable aircraft as a fall-back option. The F-16s would come in handy. So far as is known, the Chinese aircraft are not dependable for this purpose.
The fact that Beijing has reacted positively to the US decision ( a Chinese spokesman is reported to have said that it would help regional stability) shows that the US and China may have differences in other matters, but where it is a question of keeping Pakistan's military strength bolstered against India, they are objective allies and think alike. It was so in the past. It is so today. It will continue to be so in the future.
The writer is Additional Secretary (Retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and Distinguished Fellow and Convenor, Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Chennai Chapter . E-mail: [email protected]
Courtesy: The Tribune, Chandigarh, April 1, 2005
* Views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Observer Research Foundation.
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