The present generation of the Pakistani army is not so much Islamic as political and materialistic, said Professor Stephen Cohen, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution and renowned authority on Pakistan Army. Speaking at the USI as part of a joint ORF-USI lecture, Profession Cohen said the Pakistani army was only using Islam for its political objectives and this has not compromised the professional orientation of the army.
According to Professor Cohen, the Pakistan Army can and does pursue various foreign policies, and this may explain why certain sections of the army who have invested in the Taliban find it difficult to extricate themselves from there. Another reason Prof. Cohen cited to explain the Pakistani army's continued interaction with the Taliban is that the army maybe interacting with moderate Taliban. The army might be interested in making the Hamid Karzai's government take cognizance of this moderate element within the Taliban in the future governance of the country, which is much like what India has tried to do in the northeast.
He also said that Pakistan is a paranoid state with enemies and 1971 proved the enmity of India to Pakistan. A high-level result of the 1971 war was Pakistan's nuclear programme and at the other end was the support for low intensity conflicts in India. Cohen called the situation between India and Pakistan a "low-level undeclared war".
According to Prof. Cohen, no one in Pakistan is pro-American and every sector is "angry with" America. Today, there is a lack of good relations between Pakistan and the US at the top as well. During Zia's time, Pakistan's faith in America was well below its need for independence.
About the future of Pakistan, Prof. Cohen felt the country was going to be pretty stable for the next 4 to 5 years. The training of the army provides stability. In some matters, there is a strategic tunnel vision; yet, according to Cohen, the army will remain the single most important institution for the indefinite future.
Politics and the national interest of the country ate determined greatly by the beliefs of the officer corps. According to Prof. Cohen, the Pakistani army might be deeply involved in society and economy, yet it is professional and competent enough to take on its external threats. Musharraf for instance has to grapple with the conflicting demands imposed by the US, India, the Islamists within his own country and his own liberalisation programme.
In Professor Cohen's opinion, Pakistan is an oligarchy in which a core establishment provides the needed stability. There is a general perception in Pakistan that real democracy is not good for Pakistan, given the external threat that Pakistan faces vis-à-vis India. As a result, Prof. Cohen stated that India could help the return of democracy to Pakistan by solving the unfavourable external environment that Pakistan is confronted with. At the same time, Prof. Cohen stated that even if the Kashmir problem were to get resolved, the role of the army would not recede as India would always pose an external threat to India. Therefore, the role of the army in Pakistani politics is probable for at least the near future.
According to Professor Cohen, any break-up within the Pakistani army would most definitely lead to Pakistan becoming the "monster" that will be feared by all. Professor Cohen maintains that the corporate identity of the army will continue to be very strong. General Musharraf's generation shows no sign of changing the strategic vision of Pakistan or the army. According to Prof. Cohen, some risk-taking for the Pakistanis will be acceptable as long as it helps in providing a safe external environment. Therefore, Pakistan has never been averse to becoming dependent on outside powers when allowing the use of its territory, as long as Pakistanis are convinced they will be rewarded for this.
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