The end of Osama bin-Laden in the hands of the US Navy SEALS in Abbottabad, Pakistan, was an event that came as a surprise to all but was not as shocking as the acts of terrorism that be fathered. Bin-Laden’s end, in a larger context marks change in a number of ways. These could largely fall under the category of things that are taking place in close proximity to his birthplace and those that are unveiling near his final resting place (or where he met his end).
Post 9/11, Osama bin-Laden, served as a symbol that inspired future Jehadi hordes. But he was no longer the high priest. His existence as a whole was at best a challenge to the community of nations that deplored his tactics. These nations, individually were (some of them are and still continue to the) victims of terrorism and the existence of both Osama bin-Laden along with Al-Qaeda, fuel the thirst of other like-mined terrorist groups by being a source of inspiration.
But on the flip side neither Osama bin-Laden nor Al-Qaeda were able to become the umbrella organisation as they were portrayed, nor were they in a position to spread their tentacles wide. This is despite the fact that Al-Qaeda did expand to became an international organisation. The inroads that it made in both the Arab Peninsula and in Africa have met with limited success and are lost in a long list of other groups with similar philosophy of (political) violence.
On the flip side, the decade that ned from the rise and eventual end of Osama bin-Laden could go down in the history that’s yet to be written as one of the "momentous decade" of all times. The last ten years of bin-Laden’s life was largely spent in hiding and running. The notable change in this period would defiantly list the transformation of Afghanistan form a safe heaven for transnational terrorist groups to a contested battlefield. This would also include the war in Iraq. The more colourful changes that have taken place would be the "Arab Spring". The Spring in short was a sudden and relatively peaceful political transformation within the Arab world. The significant aspect of this was not only in terms of what had taken place but also on how events unfolded.
Nearer home, the decade ning 9/11 to Abbottabad raid has seen the dethroning of the Taliban in Afghanistan and germination of internal security challenges for Pakistan. Pakistan, which was supposed to be the frontline state in the War on Terror, eventually became a battleground itself. The period of chaos in the tribal belts of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan was a struggle between a Stateless society at odds with the State on a contest over sovereignty (in terms of local power structure). The ongoing siege in select pockets of Pakistan, though independent of Osama bin-Laden, owes its origins to the reaction of the United States post 9/11.
At the same time, Osama would be known not by his deeds alone but also the reaction that he was able to extract from his unfortunate recipient. In life, he became a metaphor for Jihad terrorism and in some ways revealed the path of asymmetric warfare (in the terrorism variant) to many who have now walked down that path. This is despite the fact that the chosen path in relative terms as an old dirt road that has ferried many a people from all corners of this earth. His success was not solely in what he did but in his transforming into an individual who could inspire many to take the misguided road that he professed while at the same time going against convention wisdom.
The bilateral relationship between Pakistan and the United States in the days after the Abbottabad raid was at the lowest pinnacle and is yet to recover. Incidentally this relationship was otherwise dead till bin-Laden revived it (9/11). At the same time the current concerns expressed by some quarters over Iran (and its nuclear programme) lies in the United States freeing Tehran from its two nemeses, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq and the Taliban from Afghanistan.
Despite his death and the relative inactiveness of al-Qaeda, it would be wrong to believe that this man’s legacy has died with him. Osama bin-Laden professed a thought process of mass casualty violence, which transcends both time as space. It is however not exclusive to him or Al-Qaeda. But this was taken to imaginative heights like 9/11 and the Madrid train bombing to name a few. The legacy of al-Qaeda would not only be the strength of the organisation but the flexibility and seamlessness which terrorism has come to acquire.
The fact that Osama maintained radio silence since 2005 after moving to his mansion did not hurt Al-Qaeda’s operations. The franchise holders of this organisation would also be testimony to the ability of the organisation to adapt and change, even though none of them have made as significant impact or could be considered the true successor to the parent outfit. At the same time the affiliates of Al-Qaeda have now shifted gears. Their new modus operandi is to work through small groups or even individuals. At the same time Al-Qaeda has embraced technology and could operate in the realm of the cyber world to wreck havoc on the civilised world.
The irony of the rise and fall of Al-Qaeda, the organisation that bin-Laden created, is that it has always run parallel to the dominant events of every era. Al-Qaeda came into existence in 1988. That was the time when the formidable Soviet Union was crumbling. It It grew with significant force even as the United States consolidated its position as the sole super power of the world. His death happened at a time when the world’s economy was going through its worst slump since the Great Depression. Incidentally his moving to the mansion in Abbottabad (which became his residence till death) was around the same time as the economic crisis was building up. But then, all this could be mere coincidence.
The turn of the last two decades the world witnessed events that were beyond imagination. The first was the dreadful act of 2001 and the latest one is the still evolving "Arab Spring". A depressed world can only hope that the start of the next decade holds pleasant surprises, and the memory of Osama bin-Laden fades to oblivion..
(The writer is a research scholar with Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)
Courtesy: The Pioneer
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