As expected, President Barack Obama's annual State of the Union address on January 12, his first one since re-election, focused on the economy and other domestic issues, with foreign policy and national security getting only a passing reference. And, the Congress faced the same combative President Americans saw during the inaugural speech. Obama asked the Congress to cooperate but then also clarified that he would go the extra mile, if the need arises, to use executive powers to get things done during his second term. Hendrik Hertzberg wrote in the
New Yorker, "As the curtain rises on Act II of his Presidency, he is as ready for conflict as for compromise." Besides few bipartisan toppings like, "the Constitution makes us not rivals for power but partners for progress" and that the American people expected their political leaders "to put the nation's interests before party," Obama was found mostly putting the ball in the Congress's court.
Taking the fragile economy towards a sustainable growth path remains the biggest challenge for the United States, both in the near and long term. Both the parties need to work on balancing the demands of reducing the huge deficit, funding future-oriented investments and the rising cost of social entitlements. But, they seem unable to do so at the moment. And, according to many analysts, this political dysfunction in Washington is eating into the economic confidence of American consumers. The radical groups in both the parties are being blamed for this continuing gridlock; with conservatives in the Republican Party adamant on rejecting plans for any additional tax revenues and liberals within the Democratic Party not supporting Medicare cuts.
A March 1 deadline looms large, when temporary adjustments will expire again and across the board-spending cuts called the "sequester" will set in, if some new plan is not agreed upon. Quick-fixes will most likely be worked on, but the bigger challenge of engineering a sustainable deficit reduction plan will remain, even as Obama offered a progressive agenda saying, "...Deficit reduction alone is not an economic plan....A growing economy that creates good, middle-class jobs - that must be the North Star that guides our efforts." Obama pictured a rising, thriving middle class as the true engine of American growth. He advocated a "bipartisan, comprehensive tax reform" that encourages job creation and manufacturing in America. He reiterated closing tax loopholes and increasing taxes on the wealthiest. He called for more job-creating investments on science and innovation, infrastructure building and an education system that gives both affordability and value. Talking of energy security and the coming self-reliance that the US foresees for itself, he chose to reemphasise the need to fight climate change. Urging the "Congress to pursue a bipartisan, market-based solution to climate change," he put a dramatic arc to the speech saying, "...but if Congress won't act soon to protect future generations, I will."
But, even as Obama stressed that his plans won't add a single dime to the deficit and that Americans needed "not a bigger government" but "a smarter government that sets priorities and invests in broad-based growth," the GOP rebuttal coming from Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, showed a status quo partisan divide over most issues. The Republicans are still against taxing the rich, and believes that the federal government under President Obama has acted more than it should seeking to increase regulations and taxes where not needed. In a sharp criticism to Obama's vision, Rubio said, "...his favourite attack of all is that those who don't agree with him, that we only care about rich people." "... Mr. President, I don't oppose your plans because I want to protect the rich. I oppose your plans because I want to protect my neighbours - hard-working middle-class Americans who don't need us to come up with a plan to grow the government. They need a plan to grow the middle class," Rubio said.
Reflecting the divisions within the Republican Party, the Tea Party Express, a conservative political action committee, sponsored its own rebuttal speech. The speech was given by Rand Paul, Republican senator from Kentucky, who, interestingly, is also a presidential hopeful like Rubio in 2016. True to his task, Paul attacked a big government, but also attacked both the parties for spending too much, and of striking backroom deals that profited politicians in Washington at the cost of taxpayers. "It is time for a new bipartisan consensus: It is time Democrats admit that not every dollar spent on domestic program(me)s is sacred. And it is time Republicans realise that military spending is not immune to waste and fraud," Paul said.
Other high points of Obama's address were his emphasis on two legislative battles that he needs to wage in the coming days: on immigration reform and stricter gun laws. Regarding immigration reform, he called for stronger border security, a responsible pathway for illegal immigrants to earn citizenship, and fixing the legal immigration system to attract high-skilled engineers and entrepreneurs. Although both parties are mindful of the rising Hiic population and its electoral impact, the issue of immigration reform is still a divisive one, and both intra-party and inter-party politics will come up for test.
As far as gun laws are concerned, recent events like the one in Newtown, Connecticut have tested people's tolerance towards gun violence in the country, and the President has definitely made it a priority issue in his second term, challenging the Congress to vote on the issue. Giving his speech amidst the families of victims of gun violence in Connecticut and Illinois as well as former Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, a victim herself, Obama emphatically said, "Gabby Giffords deserves a vote. The families of Newtown deserve a vote. The families of Aurora deserve a vote." Obama wants new universal background checks for gun purchases, which appear to have significant bipartisan support. But, proposals to ban assault weapons and magazine cartridges that hold more than 10 rounds might face stiffer resistance in the Congress with powerful gun lobbies using their influence and money to hijack Obama's plans. As such, both on immigration and gun laws, some new legislation can be foreseen, but they will most probably be less than what President Obama desired.
Foreign policy, unsurprisingly, was not the main course of the address, but the add-ons are as important, in an era when the weakened American economy, more than any other, invites analyses regarding the coming decline of America. Moreover, Obama's speech was preceded by North Korea's third nuclear test that was presumably timed to unsettle the US government and test the response from the new Obama administration that is seeing a leadership change in the national security team. Even as details regarding the test come out in the coming days, America's allies in East Asia, like Japan and South Korea have been rattled, and the new North Korean regime is already being seen as the wild card in Obama's second term. Sending a strong message to the regime, Obama said, "Provocations of the sort we saw last night will only isolate them further, as we stand by our allies, strengthen our missile defense, and lead the world in taking firm action in response to these threats."
The North Korean nuclear programme, along with an intransigent Iran that is playing eyeball-to-eyeball with the Obama administration regarding its controversial nuclear programme, will be testing grounds on the non-proliferation agenda even as America plans to reduce its nuclear arsenal in conjunction with Russia. Then, Obama alluded to the increasing demands of counter-terrorism with different Al Qaeda affiliates and extremist groups emanating from the Arabian peninsula to Africa but ruled out any plans of putting American boots on the ground, instead looking at enabling other countries to help themselves, and "through a range of capabilities" that will continue to target "those terrorists who pose the gravest threat to Americans."
There is an ongoing debate over America's drone strategy, especially after the US Department of Justice produced a white paper that analyses the legality of killing Anwar-al-Awlaki, an American citizen, affiliated with the Al Qaeda in Yemen, who was hit by an American drone strike in 2011. As such, Obama administration, in its new term, will walk a tightrope between calls for transparency and the efficacy of the drone strategy. He also highlighted the rapidly growing threat from cyber-attacks, and announced having signed a new executive order to strengthen America's cyber defences. In recent times, the US Department of Homeland Security, and media houses like the New York Times and the Washington Post reported facing cyber-attacks.
The Middle East will come under more focus, as Obama goes on a visit there next month. The task would be to navigate the uncertain transition there, the internal debate within America as to how far it should go in helping the Syrian opposition against the Assad regime, and to fine tune communication with the administration in Tel Aviv, specifically regarding Israel's threat perceptions from Iran's nuclear aspirations. Acknowledging that Asia will be the engine of growth in future, Obama referred to the importance of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) but at the same time, calmed nerves in European capitals announcing the launch of talks on a comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the European Union. Reflecting the war-weary nation that America is, and highlighting the drawdown in Afghanistan, Obama, very early on during his address, said, "After a decade of grinding war, our brave men and women in uniform are coming home." Emphasising the changing nature of the American commitment in Afghanistan, and the end of an overt and large-scale military role there post 2014, he authorised the withdrawal of 34,000 more American troops (about half of the US forces there) within a year, and that further drawdown will continue till 2014 end. Deliberations still abound regarding the exact nature of the American mission in Afghanistan post 2014 and the number of the residual forces there. American power and its influence around the world are intricately tied to its economic fate, and as the country tries to engineer a leaner yet effective foreign policy, it will still be the "economy, stupid!"
President Obama, post his re-election, is definitely more confident, and on a high note, though mindful of the fact that his political capital will not last long into his second term; that he has very little time and leeway in which to enact and achieve some of the priorities he stressed during his address. The coming days will see how and to what extent, this renewed presidential confidence translates into policy implementations.
(The writer is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)
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