"The August 4 lockdown of 21 embassies in north Africa and the Middle East by the US, fearing possible al Qaida attacks, is one of the most extensive terror alerts to be issued since the September 11 attacks. The alert, the US officials said, was based on intercepted messages exchanged between terrorists allied to al Qaida operating in the region.
Although there are no specific details about the possible attacks, media reports suggest that the US officials were sure that the attacks were imminent but cannot pinpoint the timings and locations. According to the State Department notification, the attacks could take place in different locations, use multiple means and target security elements as well as general public. The embassies and consulates might open or are already open, the alert will however remain till August end.
Though the possibility of this global alert being used by the US to defuse the world-wide concern and criticism over its overarching electronic snooping operations cannot be entirely ruled out, the incident does mark some serious developments which can only be ignored at grave risk.
First and foremost is the emergence of a recalibrated al Qaida in the Middle East and North Africa. The earlier jubilation and hope that al Qaida would be history once its leader and founder Osama bin Laden was killed in May 2011 took little time to evaporate. In a little more than two years after the Abbottabad raid, al Qaida has emerged in a new avatar with its threats multiplied many times over.
Al Qaida is no longer a rigid centralised structure as it used to be in the bin Laden days. The core leadership, led by Laden's long-time deputy, Ayman al Zawahari, acts more like franchise managers, keeping the logo alive but with no effort at taking roll call or managing every single action. The ideology remains intact but the structure is more diffused, with local leaders exerting autonomous command and control. The new cadres are highly mobile, tech savvy Twitteratis with less commitment to the ideology and more towards personal and affiliated group's glory.
The new group has adapted quickly to the post-9/11 security regime; has moved away from traditional fund raising, recruitment, training and operation. The group relies on local talents, resources and networks. Many of them are sponsored by different states but are not controlled. Like in Syria, al Qaida offshoots dominate the forces opposing President Assad and draw funds and weapons from Sunni states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar but also from western nations.
The new al Qaida's adaptable characteristic is reflected in the manner in which its cadres and leaders regroup, move, disperse and work together in distant places. The new groups have no particular affinity for sanctuaries but move back and forth between sanctuaries and operational bases run by local extremist groups. The global alert shows the extent to which these different groups have created a network of networks to project a unified, powerful threat to stability and peace not only in the region but beyond.
More troublesome is the 'lone wolves' this network has spawned in different parts of the world. Using social media, these groups have established a global online presence, radicalising and recruiting persons across the world. With the quantum of easy-to-do bomb making and other terrorist tactics available freely and easily, the new recruits take less time to prime themselves for an attack. The challenge of identifying such potential recruits and bombers has become all the more difficult.
Another signal from the alert which needs to be noted is the role played by the events in North Africa and the Middle East in the consolidation of al Qaida and its allied or associated groups and individuals. The events are still unfolding in countries like Syria, Libya and Iraq where al Qaida is finding quick recruits, easy training ground, better access to money and weapons and legitimacy.
(Wilson John is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)
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