Nepal Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai’s recent visit to Patna has shown the rising prominence of State actors in India’s foreign policy initiatives vis-à-vis its neighbours. It is imperative now that the Centre engage and allow States to play a decisive role in dealing with issues concerning the neighbours.
By choosing to go to Bihar, Bhattarai has reinforced this very point - that States like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are vital for maintaining a cordial Indo-Nepal relation, which had witnessed testing times in the past. The States’ engagement has to be more prominent, especially when it comes to contentious issues like water. Thus, be it Teesta or Kosi, Bhattarai’s visit points to the fact that the Centre can not achieve much without the participation of the concerned States in the bilateral dealings.
During his visit, Bhattarai called Bihar a role model for development, economic advancement and social inclusion. While inaugurating the ’Global Summit on Changing Bihar 2012’ on February 17 in Patna, Bhattarai stressed on the urgent need for "developmental partnership" between Nepal and Bihar, which is one of the five States of India that share borders with the landlocked Himalayan nation.
Lauding Bihar’s growth under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, he spoke of "positive jealously" and his country’s willingness to work "as closely as possible" with Bihar. Nitish Kumar, on his part, extended warmest welcome to Bhattarai, who had visited New Delhi in November last year. Bhattarai was greeted by cheering crowds and was driven under high security cover in the clean and painted roads of Patna.
During the Summit, which was organised mainly to display a resurgent State under Nitish Kumar, the Chief Minister pointed at the deep cultural and socio-economic ties shared by Bihar and Nepal. Referring to Bhattarai’s visit, he said, "The PM’s visit has added a new chapter in India-Nepal ties." He added, "Bihar’s people think of the Nepalese people as their own."
Two weeks ago, Nitish Kumar had extended a warm welcome to Nepal’s Member of Parliament Pradip Giri at his janata darbar. And less than a week ago, 11 Maoist leaders from Nepal were acquitted by a court. Most importantly, the Bihar government has of late requested the Ministry of External Affairs to engage with Nepal on the river issue.
The river issue is critical to Bihar. More than two-third of the farmland in Bihar is vulnerable to floods in Kosi, Budi Gandaki and Bagmati, all of which originate in Nepal. In the 2008 Kosi flooding, several villages in both the sides were wiped out, displacing thousands of people. Some of the villages are still buried under yards of sand. No wonder Nitish Kumar spoke of harnessing these rivers, which can help the State from future catastrophe and can be used for mutual benefit. He rightly said, "The solutions to our problems are not possible without Nepal’s help."
Indo-Nepal water management is also vital to address the severe power problems in Bihar as well as in Nepal. Nepal is faced with an acute power shortage. During winter, the power cut hours rise to about 14-16 hours per a day. The northern grid of India is faced with a whooping energy shortage of 18,000 MW. The current demand in Bihar is 3000 MW in peak hour, but it only has an installed capacity 600 MW at present. Moreover, managing these rivers is also vital for agricultural growth of Bihar, which is a priority sector in Nitish Kumar’s administration.
Unfortunately, however, even after decades of signing the water treaty, the two neighbours have not been able to reap any benefits. Besides a multitude of political issues, a major reason for failure of water talks with Nepal is due to lack of participation from the States concerned. The central government did not consult and seek States’ involvement in its bilateral dealings. Although instability and politicisation of water issues in Nepal has not let any Indo-Nepal treaty materialise, lack of participation from the actors of the states concerned has prevented steady progress in water talks.
There are two principal points of contention between India and Nepal over Kosi Treaty -- the issue of water rights and that of the management, control and operation of the barrage. In Nepal, the Maoist party has stood against the Kosi Treaty since 1996 calling it "anti-national" and "discriminatory." Baburam’s visit to Patna can alter the trust deficit that has virtually held the Kosi treaty back for so many years. The new engagement is a step in the right direction. The two sides must keep the momentum going as mutual trust and cooperation is imperative for the completion of the Kosi high-dam project, the Detail Project Report of which is slated to be completed by February next year.
If the two sides prepare a common minimum programme and framework of action and arrive at a shared understanding on upstream and downstream rights, Kosi project can move on. At the same time, information sharing and cooperation on water issues is also an important element. In this context, the two countries have successfully held the experts consultation meeting and secretary-level talks on water issues in New Delhi last year. India has shown great flexibility on water issues lately and is willing to assist Nepal on a "non-reciprocal" basis. Nepal too must cash on the moment. The goodwill generated by Bhattarai’s visit can go a long way in forging a sustainable water relation between the two countries.
But much will depend on Bhattarai ability to deliver on the peace and constitution making. Stability and peace are the prerequisites for the beginning of any friendly cooperation. Unfortunately, Bhattarai is losing at his home front. With less than three and half months left for the last deadline of the Constituent Assembly, the much-needed consensus among the political actors in Nepal looks elusive. Although Bhattarai has said that this is not a "lingering instability" and that "it takes a while for the water to settle after a major storm," public patience is running out for the present Maoist government.
Bhattarai is faced with strong opposition from the hardliners within his party, who have opposed virtually all government decisions since Bhattarai took over as the PM in August last year. He has been made to go back on a number of his cabinet decisions, including on the issue of legalising land acquisition by his party during the people’s war days. There has been no significant improvement in maintaining law and order situation and in promoting good governance. His party has come under severe national and international criticism for protecting rights violators. Just a few days back, the UCPN (Maoist) came under heavy attack from opposition parties and international organisations for allegedly issuing death threats against two former UN officials based in Kathmandu and another well-known advocate.
Nitish Kumar rightly pointed that Bihar and Nepal have similar problems, but "some problems of Nepal must be solved before they could be addressed in Bihar." Bhattarai must set his house in order before embarking on any ambitious plan with India.
(Akanshya Shah is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation)
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