It's May and still cold in Srinagar. "The cool weather is just to help the flowers bloom (phool wali sardi)," I am informed cheerfully by my driver as he shifts the gear of his Innova SUV on the road leading to Srinagar's famed Nishat Garden. Indeed, the old Mughal garden is resplendent with the colours of the most beautiful flowers. Across the road, at the Dal Lake, a shikara lazily moves over its still, but blue waters. It's a perfect picture postcard of peace, but is it for real?
"No! Don't go by what you see or what you are told by the central or the state government. Peace has not returned to Kashmir," I am informed by a local journalist. Syed Ali Shah Geelani, hardline separatist leader of the All Party Hurriyat Conference (APHC) under house arrest for months, is a little embarrassed when told about how peaceful his valley is. "It's all superficial. If people return to work to earn their livelihood then it should not be seen as if Kashmir has become peaceful again," says the ailing fire-breathing leader.
"Kashmiri youth have become radicalized and the movement for azadi has become more indigenous and deeper," stresses the young and articulate Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, another APHC leader, though a moderate. Contrary to the narrative of peace built by the central and state agencies that tourism has helped the state recover from violence and terror, many Kashmiris seem to be preparing for the worst as April 2014, the much anticipated date of withdrawal of US troops in Afghanistan, comes closer. A piece of graffiti — 'Welcome to Taliban' — scrawled near a bus stop adjacent to Srinagar's famed Hazratbal shrine evidenced dark forebodings for the future. Based in Pakistan, extremist leader Hafiz Sayeed's threat to focus more on India in 2014 deepens these anxieties. Sayeed, protected by certain sections in the Pakistani establishment, has been accused by India of masterminding the 26/11 Mumbai carnage.
Although Pakistan's assembly elections were disappointingly silent — for separatists — on the Kashmir issue, there were expectations that the radicalization of Pakistani society and the influence the Tehrik-e-Taliban might exercise on the next government would not really leave Kashmir unscathed. Young Kashmiris may have wanted cricketer Imran Khan to win the Pakistan assembly polls, but they are not unhappy with Nawaz Sharif. He, too, is seen to be close to all those who have helped Kashmiri separatists in the past. Sharif may have made friendly noises towards India, but two years of relative tranquility that the two countries have enjoyed along with Kashmir is threatening to become a casualty of the big power game. Some interested powers have begun to show inordinate interest in the Kashmir dispute all over again.
Despite quiet assurance displayed by security officials in Srinagar and New Delhi ("there are just 70-odd militants left in Kashmir and we are keeping a close watch on them"), violence showed its head in the last week of June. First, two policemen were killed and then a military convoy on the way to Baramulla was ambushed near heavily policed Hyderpura on the outskirts of Srinagar. Eight soldiers were killed in this professionally executed brazen attack. Worse, the attackers escaped unhurt.
Besides, the incident took place three days before the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress chief Sonia Gandhi, who were visiting Srinagar to inaugurate a project loaded with immense symbolism — the Banihal-Qazigund tunnel that connects the valley with the rest of the country. This 11-km link will provide a major section of all-weather rail routes between Jammu and Kashmir. The rail route is also meant to convey another message to the people of the valley and to the separatists — that Kashmir is non-negotiable and the government has the resolve and muscle to defend its projects and interests here.
If the prime minister had come a week earlier, maybe much of what he had said about peace returning to the valley would have sounded credible; but after the Hyderpura ambush, everything looked different. Also, this is the first time in many years that Indian army soldiers had died in the city of Srinagar and not at the border. In that sense, it is a serious setback.
If these two incidents of terrorism reignited the dying embers of separatism as well as the allegations of cross-border terrorism against Pakistan, then it would begin to lend meaning to the reworked narrative that has been going around in diplomatic circles. This theory, that has been made fashionable by the new Brookings paper titled, 'A deadly triangle:
'Afghanistan, Pakistan and India', by Delhi-based historian William Dalrymple, claims that Afghanistan's problem cannot be solved till relations between India and Pakistan are sorted out. In his reckoning, India and Pakistan are fighting a proxy war in Afghanistan. Dalrymple, who lives in Delhi, is conscious of Indian sensitivities, but he has a flawed view of history that is bound to outrage the Afghans and Pakistanis and leave Indians wondering what he is trying to imply since he completely bails out the West and its misadventures in Afghanistan.
Courtesy : Hardnews, July
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