Now that Pakistan has admitted that its scientists were involved in the transfer of nuclear technology,
1 three major issues/questions need to be studied and analyzed. Is the problem over for General Musharraf or is it a new beginning of another round of problems? How will the Opposition react? What would be the US response?
Is the Problem over for Musharraf? General Musharraf is making full use of the prevailing circumstances. Though he has acceded to the international community about the transfer of nuclear technology and material to different countries but was clever enough to draw a fine line between the State and the scientists accused of proliferation. In all probability, Musharraf seems to have struck a deal with A.Q Khan. If he took the entire blame on himself, as he eventually did, he would be pardoned. This would absolve the State from any responsibility and keep the Army out of the heat. The issue, however, is far from over. Not many (in Pakistan as well as the international community) are willing to accept that Pakistan military was not involved in the proliferation.
Will the Opposition make it as a political issue? Back home, though General Musharraf has been trying hard to reiterate that he never brought disgrace to the `father of the nuclear bomb', the MMA (Muttahida-Majlis-i-Amal)and the PML-N ( Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Faction)have started mobilizing public sentiments against the General Musharraf for blaming A.Q.Khan. The Opposition led by the ARD( Alliance for restoration of Democracy), will be raising the issue of questioning of scientists over nuclear proliferation in the upcoming session of senate on February 13.2 The motion for the same has already been signed by PPP's( Pakistan's Peoples Party) Parliamentary leader, Mian Raza Rabbani, PML-N's parliamentary leader Isaq Dhar, PPP senator Safdar Abbasi and Sanaullah Baloch of the Balochistan National Party.
3 The JUI (Jamiat-Ulema-Islam) also held a protest demonstration against the nuclear scientist's detention.
4 The MMA observed a strike on February 6 to condemn the pro US policies of General Musharraf. The JUI leaders allege that General Musharraf has made A.Q. Khan a scapegoat just to save the skin of a few army generals who were involved in the nuclear proliferation. In response, the General is likely to draw a parallel between Iraq and Pakistan. Iraq, accused of storing weapons of mass destruction, was subjugated by the United States. But Pakistan, though proven proliferators of weapons of mass destruction is being applauded for the efforts it is taking to recognize and stop the nuclear proliferation.
5 Will the US impose sanctions? The US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher in a statement agreed that a multitude of US laws is involved in transfer of nuclear technology or material. The case of sanctions may differ on a case-by-case basis, depending on whether there was an involvement of Government agency or individuals as in the case of Pakistan.
6 The US continues to trust Musharraf, as it has no other option, at least for the time being. The US is facing problem in Iraq and Afghanistan. There has been some relief for the US after Saddam Hussein was captured but President Bush is finding hard to justify the rising casualties of American soldiers in Iraq. In Afghanistan, the situation is equally bad. The US troops are constantly being attacked. President Bush may not like to indulge in any new game in Pakistan. Warnings to Pakistan, citing the nuclear proliferation concerns of the US, will keep coming at regular intervals accompanied by applause for the timely action taken by the General. But this again may not last long. Once the elections are over and the new President takes charge in Washington, the non-proliferation concerns of the US may again take precedence over the so called "internal matters" of Pakistan. Pakistan will once again find itself in dock. Certain events may then follow. Pakistan can be forced to open its nuclear labs to the inspection of IAEA. It may be pressurized to sign the NPT and also forced to think on signing CTBT. The $3 billion package has yet to be delivered to Pakistan which can be stopped. Pakistan can be once again put to economic and military sanctions which will be disastrous for its economy.
Conclusion General Musharraf for the moment may have to strike a balance between the domestic and international commitments but would be in trouble once the US starts dictating terms to Pakistan especially about its nuclear weapons programme. If General Musharraf agrees to all the terms and conditions put by the US, it would be viewed as a roll back and could cause serious backlash in the domestic politics of Pakistan.
References
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"Dr. Khan seeks pardon, " Dawn, 4 February 2004
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"Opposition to raise N-issue in Senate", Dawn, 7 February 2004
Dawn, 7 February 2004
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"JUI protests against scientists detention," Dawn, 7 February 2004
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"Proliferation probe earns US praise, "Dawn, 7 February 2004
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"Proliferation probe earns US praise", Dawn, 7 February 2004
* Views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Observer Research Foundation.
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