For many years now, Iran's nuclear programme has been one of the most intractable global problems. But there now seems to be a path to resolution, thanks to a deal which has been reached after months of negotiations between the P5+1 and the new Iranian regime led by President Hassan Rouhani.
This temporary deal on Iran began to be implemented on January 20. However, broader sanctions will remain in place until a more permanent and comprehensive agreement is negotiated over the next months.
So, what does this mean for various countries?
For Iran, it means an end to its isolation. It will be able to have normal economic relations with other countries and to export its energy and attract foreign investments. The deal also validates Tehran's position as a regional power in West Asia. The end of sanctions means domestic support for Rouhani and the moderates will increase.
For Washington, it means an end to tensions with Tehran. This plays well into the US strategy of withdrawing from West Asia and rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific region. If the US can use the deal to persuade Iran to rein in Hezbollah and Hamas, it could contribute to Israel's security.
Washington could also ensure that Iran uses its influence with the Bashar al-Assad regime in order to bring an end to the conflict in Syria. Iran also has considerable influence with the Shias in Iraq and could play a role in stabilizing the situation.
With the US drawdown from Afghanistan later this year, Iran will have an important role to play in that country. This role will complement US goals, because on Afghanistan, Washington and Tehran have similar goals like countering terrorism and fighting against drug trafficking.
Opening up to Iran would give the US some leverage over Tehran, while also ensuring that its current allies in West Asia do not take it for granted. Meanwhile, once Iranian oil flows into the market, oil and gas will get cheaper, and US companies will get more opportunities to invest in Iran.
However, neither Saudi Arabia nor Israel is pleased with the deal. They feel that the deal affects their national security, because they believe Iran will continue its nuclear weapons program anyway.
The two countries also worry that with relations warming between Tehran and Washington, they will lose their influence with the US. Many analysts also feel that the deal might result in greater security and intelligence cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Saudi Arabia and other Sunni regimes are concerned that their fears of Iranian domination of the region might come true with the deal. They worry that with an increase in Iran's regional influence, the already restive Shia populations in their countries might become more aggressive in asking for their rights.
For Russia, the deal would mean that it can stabilize economic relations with Iran. There are reports that Russian company Atomstroyexport is in negotiations to build nuclear power plants in Iran. Iran is likely to become an arms market for Russia. Russia also hopes for more concrete cooperation with Iran on Afghanistan after the US drawdown.
However, if Iran is able to come back into the energy market, it would mean competition for Russia's energy exports.
Russia so far has been one of the few countries that have been supportive of Iran at international forums. This gave it some leverage over Iran. But with Iran now returning to the comity of nations, Russia stands to lose this leverage.
For European countries, the deal means that their companies can invest in Iran and also have access to Iran's vast domestic consumer market.
Finally, energy-hungry countries like China, India and Japan can now import more energy from Iran. They can also go ahead with trade and investments in Iran.
Japan also hopes that in the long run, nuclear cooperation between North Korea and Iran would end. For India, the end of Iran's isolation means it can move ahead with cooperating in Central Asia and Afghanistan, and go forward with revitalizing the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline.
The implications of the Iran deal, good and bad, will be felt and will across decades and across many regions of the world.
One can only hope that both sides, the P5+1 countries and Iran, hold up their sides of the deal.
(The author is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)
Courtesy: The Global Times, Beijing, February 25, 2013
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