Whatever the followers in social media and elsewhere may be doing, our leaders at least are avoiding any chest thumping and belligerence. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement in response to the clash in the Galwan valley that took the lives of 20 Indian soldiers has been tough, but sober. It is difficult to avoid some schadenfreude over his predicament. In similar circumstances in Uri in 2016 or in Pulwama in 2019 he did not hold back his rhetoric, or hand. Retribution visited Pakistan swiftly and was wildly acclaimed.
But he is right to treat China differently, because it is different. For one, it is much stronger than we are. Getting into a scrap over a place where no blade of grass grows was foolish in the 1950s, and would be so now. There are many in the mustachioed fraternity dying to give Beijing a bloody nose as we did in 1967. But they are confusing response to a localised incident with the larger undertaking of dealing with an assertive China.
Given the balance of forces on the LAC, we can, indeed, deliver a telling blow to the Chinese in western Tibet, but what then? China’s heartland is 2,500 km away and once it brings its superior numbers there will be a backflow. We are not even talking about nuclear weapons, which should ensure that the conflict remains limited, but it just may not.
There are many other proposals in the air – boycott Chinese goods, join the US in a formal military alliance, spend huge monies in modernising the armed forces. But none of them can address the situation we confront today.
With established global supply chains fraying, we must first decide whether we’ll be “atmanirbhar” or an alternative workshop of the world. Either way, industrial ecosystems cannot be created by magic. Pimpri-Chinchwad, Madurai-Coimbatore, Faridabad-Gurgaon regions did not come up overnight, but over several decades.
As for spending more on defence modernisation, understand that it can’t be done along with the above-mentioned tasks. With no defence industry to speak of, we’ll have to import our needs. Opportunity costs in developmental and social welfare sectors will have to be paid.
The US alliance appears to be the most seductive option. Without putting down serious money we can get a free ride on Uncle Sam’s back. But that’s provided you are willing to trust his current avatar – Donald J Trump. Remember, though, that when you sign up with the greatest power on earth, orbited by economic giants like the UK, Germany and Japan, you do not have the vanity of deciding your role. Ask the South Koreans or the Afghans.
There are two new suggestions doing the rounds – forming a coalition of middle powers or a concert of democracies. The former would be a geopolitical equivalent of a platypus, the animal designed by committee. Democracies are not looking too good these days either. Witness the travails of the leader, the US, wracked by an uprising of people saying that they have not been treated fairly for a long, long time. As for India, we will reserve our comment except to say that we alone can safeguard our national interest. The democracies don’t even recognise that Ladakh is an indisputable part of India.
The important thing right now is not to get rattled by immediate events. Covid-19 has jangled nerves globally, and we shouldn’t allow a border clash to rattle ours in the region. Before Covid things were not too good. The pandemic has created further damage and is yet to peak. This is neither the time to boycott a major economic power or get into a shooting war with anyone. Anger against China is understandable, but there are times in one’s life, when you must swallow back bile and get on with life. Only sustained high economic growth will have the means of offsetting China. Our aim, like Arjun, must be on the eye of the fish. And as the Americans say, don’t get mad, get even.
This commentary originally appeared in The Times of India.
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Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the ORF. He has been a journalist specialising on national and international politics and is a commentator and ...
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