Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) is poised to form the next government. Although this had been widely predicted by observers in the lead-up to last Saturday's voting, few expected his victory to be so decisive. The party's two main rivals - Asif Ali Zardari's Pakistan Peoples' Party (PPP), and Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) - finished way behind.
The results are a sharp rebuke to the PPP's poor record of governance over the past five years, as well as something of a reality-check for the PTI. While Khan's influence on the national discourse should not be understated, it appears the voters have opted for a change of the more traditional sort. The next five years may offer the PTI a chance to prove its governing ability, however, as it is projected to form the provincial government in the restive province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Economic Growth
Pakistan's sputtering economy may be the greatest challenge the new government faces. The annual economic growth rate has hovered around 4 per cent over the past five years - roughly half of that required to keep up with the present rate of population growth. Growing national debt will likely necessitate additional IMF loans. The Fund, however, will likely insist on front-loading tax reforms as a precondition to any new loans being granted, given the fact the previous round was cancelled due to the government's inability to increase revenues. The PML(N), buffered by its strong legislative majority, may be in a position to make the necessary changes.
Aside from the obvious improvements in physical infrastructure and security required to increase foreign investment and spur economic growth, Sharif has expressed a welcome willingness to continue to work toward reducing trade barriers with India. The PML(N)'s pro-business stance has inclined it towards liberalising regional trade, and with the global financial crisis restricting the oreign aid commitments of much of the developed world, Pakistan will likely have to look for mutually-beneficial regional partnerships for sustainable economic growth. The impending US pull-out of Afghanistan will also likely mean decreased aid from one of Pakistan's largest, if most unpopular, financial backers.
Presently, bilateral trade between Pakistan and India stands at $2.5 billion per year - a fraction of its potential given the enormous populations of both countries and India's growing economic clout. Improving ties between the two is also a crucial element of Pakistan's long-term geopolitical strategy of serving as a "bridge" between the energy-rich Central Asian States and South Asia, where continued economic growth will require new, reliable sources of energy.
Though the Army has traditionally dictated the terms of foreign policy, Sharif has explicitly called for foreign policy decisions to be made by civilian authorities. While his political rise in the 1980s was largely the result of Army patronage, his relationship with the generals soured since his ouster via military coup in 1999. It remains to be seen just how much ground Sharif can reclaim from the military establishment. In this case, however, the severity of Pakistan's economic state of affairs may incline even the Army toward improving relations with India.
Energy Crisis
Chronic power shortages, brought on by steadily increasing demand, crumbling infrastructure, as well as inadequate supplies, rank near the top of the list in terms of issues that must be dealt with in the near term. Regular blackouts of up to 18 hours a day in some parts of the country not only hinder economic growth and investment, but serve as a regular reminder to the general public of the government's incapacity to provide them with basic services. It is little surprise, then, that the issue has featured prominently this campaign season, and ranks near the top of the list of the PML(N)'s election manifesto.
Sharif's strategy to address the energy crisis includes tariff reforms and improved bill collection to ameliorate the systemic debt that has plagued the energy sector. The infrastructure should also be revitalised along with plans made for exploitation of domestic energy sources - such as coal reserves in the Thar Desert, natural gas deposits in Baluchistan, and the building of hydroelectric dams. These reforms, while necessary, are long-term processes that will have little impact on the energy crisis in the immediate future.
In the short-term, Pakistan would need to look toward foreign energy sources to correct current shortfalls. How the next government navigates this road would have a profound impact on the domestic front.
With the American-sponsored Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline still far on the horizon, the previous PPP government defied American pressure and turned westward to Iran in the months prior to the election, beginning construction on a long-delayed natural gas pipeline through Baluchistan and Sindh. The project is slated to be completed in 2014 (though this is a bit optimistic), and under the current agreement would provide 750 million cubic feet of natural gas per day. While this is well below the daily 4 billion cubic foot shortfall the country presently faces, it is a significant development both in terms of its energy production potential, as well as the political fallout Sharif would face in appearing to cave to Western pressure should he renege on the deal.
While a cancellation of the project would have political consequences at home as well as with Iran (itself in dire financial straits), Sharif would need to walk a fine line between meeting Pakistan's energy needs while not alienating its western supporters, who still play a key role in keeping the country afloat financially and negotiating settlements in Afghanistan and with India. Interestingly the Iran-Pakistan Pipeline is not directly mentioned in the party's election manifesto.
Security
The merciless bombing of mostly left-wing political parties throughout Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Baluchistan, and Karachi over the course of the election season is only the most recent manifestation of Pakistan's deteriorating security situation. The Pakistani Taliban (TTP) has continued to expand over the past five years, with new reports indicating that large numbers of militants have been moving into section of Karachi. While Sharif's PML(N) has largely managed to avoid the brunt of the TTP's wrath, Pakistan's future stability will require a systemic effort to contain, and eventually eliminate, militant Islamist groups.
Sharif's current proposed strategy of entering into negotiations with the TTP may produce a temporary cease-fire, as previous agreements have done, but addressing the root of the problem will necessitate a paradigm shift away from the use of certain militant networks (including TTP allies) as "strategic assets" in Afghanistan and Kashmir, and improved cooperation between Afghan and Pakistani security forces in policing the border region. A ceasefire may bring temporary relief from the daily carnage of bombings, gunfire, and intimidation, but the TTP will continue to be a significant force as long as it has safe havens to operate from.
At Another Crossroads
The fact that Pakistan once again finds itself facing a litany of crises and challenges is nothing new. Such has been the case for some time now. Once again, as has so frequently happened, a leader has come forward, carried by the hopes of the people that this time will be different. A 60% voter turnout, even under such turbulent conditions, is indicative of a people yearning for something different.
Pakistan's first transfer of power between elected governments is indeed a milestone - but how strong a precedent it will set is very much dependent on the performance of Nawaz Sharif and the PML-N. Confidence in civilian institutions, high voter turnout aside, remains dreadfully low. A recent Pew Research Center poll taken before the elections, for instance, reported that 91 per cent Pakistanis are dissatisfied with the direction of the country. The National Government, meanwhile, ranks near the bottom of institutions which Pakistanis felt had a positive influence on the country (24% reported that it did). The military ranked number one.
Failure to make progress on these important matters in the coming years will not only spell trouble for the PML-N, but will further erode the public's already minimal confidence in Pakistan's civilian institutions of governance. Needless to say, the country can ill afford more time on the present path.
With so much at stake, who can afford not to hope?
(The writer is a Boren Research Intern with Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)
Courtesy : The Pioneer, May 18, 2013
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