Pakistan occupied Kashmir that need to be closely watched by boththe Indian authorities and the Western world. The first is thefailure of the Pakistan army and its associated institutions toprovide relief to the millions of quake affected people in Kashmirunder its occupation.
Second is the emergence of Jamaat-ud Dawa (JuD), the parentorganisation of terrorist group Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), as aneffective NGO capable and willing to step in where the powerfulArmy has failed. Third is the coalition of various religious,secessionist and terrorist groups coming together in the aftermathof the earthquake.
There is hardly any doubt, even for the staunchest of supporters ofPresident Pervez Musharraf, the Pakistani establishment failed inits hour of crisis. Mr Musharraf, projecting himself as thearchitect of modern Pakistan, could not measure up to the challengeposed by the devastation caused by the earthquake. His reputationhas suffered grave damage and his invincible image - of a shrewdand pragmatic leader - has crumbled with the Margola Towers. It wasan utter failure of command. He could not fathom the extent ofdamage and when he did, he lost his nerves and called up anyone andeveryone for help.
It was uncharacteristic of a soldier who posed in his uniform andfired blanks in the air in machismo displays. Not only did he failto provide immediate succour to the people, he failed the army byhis confusion and display of helplessness. It was a colossalfailure on the part of the army and the generals would find itdifficult to live with it for long. Mr Musharraf didn't helphimself by calling for help from the NATO, which, as expected, waspromptly despatched, with several helicopters and a contingent of1,000 troops to Kashmir.
This has far-reaching consequences for Kashmir, particularly forthe Pakistan Army which has been living for the past half a centuryand more with the dream of annexing it. Mr Musharraf, in the nameof rescue and relief, has mortgaged Pakistani part of Kashmir.Anyone familiar with the Pakistan press would realise soon enoughthat he would not be able to emerge out of this crisis unscratched.
Another clear indicator of his failure is the emergence of JuD asthe alternative source of rescue, relief and rehabilitation forKashmiris. Since JuD has been systematically dissociating itselffrom LeT and other terrorist activities, claiming, both on itswebsite and in interviews its leaders have been freely giving tothe Western media, that JuD was a civilian, non-governmentalorganisation committed to the welfare of the people of Kashmir andothers in Pakistan.
It is certainly a clever move. Long before the earthquake, as partof the army plan, LeT chief Hafiz Saeed, who calls himselfprofessor (he was a religious teacher in an engineering college),had officially resigned from the position of amir of LeT,separating the group which, he announced, would now operate fromthe Indian side of Kashmir. JuD has, since the earthquake, set upseveral mobile dispensaries, mobilised teams of doctors fromdifferent countries and ensured immediate relief like tents, foodmaterials and medicines to far-flung areas. Ironically, while JuDwas able to set up relief camps in remotest of areas in PoK, thePakistan army took several weeks to even reach these areas.
The extent of JuD's influence can be gauged from the fact that itrecently bought a mobile operation theatre from Karachi at a costof Rs 1.6 crore for the field surgical and medical centreestablished at Shanwai Nullah in Muzaffarabad. Where does JuD getsits contributions? Dr Amir Aziz, famous for treating Osama binLaden, runs the hospital. Several doctors from Turkey and Indonesiatoo have joined him at the hospital. More, JuD activists are alsoproviding security escorts to various other NGOs involved in reliefand rehabilitation. Recently, the group provided security cover toNGOs from UK.
Ironically, while the JuD activities betray the failure of thePakistan Army, the group's relief and rescue efforts have theblessings of the political leaders, including some of the ministersin the ruling coalition. Federal Minister Zubaida Jalal accompaniedUNICEF officials to the JuD hospital on October 17.
She held meetings with Hafiz Saeed and was informed that thePakistan Government should provide the group with helicopters toferry relief materials and the injured. A week later, the JuDhospital was visited by Federal Minister for Kashmir Affairs andNorthern Areas Syed Faisal Saleh Hayat, who had hosted Kashmiriterrorists in the early 1990s, on October 24. Hayat praised JuD andits leader Hafiz Saeed profusely for the relief and rehabilitationwork.
What should be of more concern is the coming together of groupsdetrimental to peace in the region. There are clear indications ofJuD getting closer to Jamaat-e-Islami, the major component ofMuttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), the six-party alliance of religiousparties integral to the ruling coalition in Islamabad. JeI chiefQazi Hussain Ahmed visited JuD camps and mobile dispensaries inMuzaffarabad and praised Saeed for relief activities. The personwho accompanied him reveals another growing link - Syed Salahuddin.Salahuddin heads the Muttahida Jihad Council (United JihadCouncil), a loose confederation of terrorist groups operating inKashmir with headquarters in Muzaffarabad. Till date, there hadbeen no visible signs of any association between JeI, JuD andUnited Jihad Council.
These emerging linkages should be seen alongside the growing warmthbetween Hafiz Saeed and Yasin Malik, chief of the Jammu &Kashmir Liberation Front. According to Jang, the most widely readUrdu daily in Pakistan, Malik visited Saeed's camps and hospitalson November 6 and said JuD was doing a commendable job. Jasarat,another conservative Urdu daily, reported on November 7 of Malik'svisit to JuD offices to hold meetings with the central leadershipof the group.
Saeed, in fact, hosted a reception in his honour at Markazal-Qadsiya in Lahore where the LeT chief reiterated his resolve tocontinue the jihad in Kashmir. Markaz Qadsiya is the newdouble-storey complex, containing madarsas and a mosque beingconstructed in Lahore at a cost of Rs 4.75 billion. No lesssignificant has been the presence of editors of Urdu newspapers whoshare the common belief that anyone opposing jihad in Kashmir wouldlose power.
One of the obvious consequences would be the emergence of JuD andits armed wing, LeT, with new networking capabilities on both sidesof Kashmir and hence stronger in position and reach to cause terrorin Kashmir once the spring thaws the frozen passes in the PirPanjal ranges. The alliances with Qazi Hussain Ahmed, SyedSalahuddin and Yasin Malik would enable Lashkar to become a fulcrumof all terrorist activities in Kashmir.
This coalition would be hard to put down with traditionalcounter-terrorist strategies exploited by the Indian securityforces. But first, we must understand this networking of terroristgroups before evolving a suitable and strong counter-strategy.Additional opening of routes across the LoC, in the shadow of thesedevelopments, could leave India extraordinarily vulnerable toanother round of terrorist onslaught from across the border.
The author is Senior Fellow and Director, Inform Services,Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.Source: The Pioneer, New Delhi, December 7, 2005.* Views expressed in this article are those of the author anddo not necessarily reflect those of Observer ResearchFoundation.
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