Since its inception, ORF-Kolkata has devoted much time and resources to the study of India’s connectivity with its eastern and southeastern neighbours, specifically designing a research programme around this theme. Over the years, a series of reports have been published covering varied themes including land and inland waterway connectivity, energy cooperation, border management, and people-to-people ties. The last such study from ORF Kolkata, India’s Maritime Connectivity: Importance of the Bay of Bengal (2018) centred on the diverse maritime linkages of India with the Bay-adjacent nations of South Asia—namely, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka.
This study proceeds a few steps forward. The volume provides an account of the geostrategic and geo-economic forces shaping the connections between India’s east coast and what it calls the ‘extended Bay’, or the Southeast Asian countries of Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia. How have these linkages occurred? While some of the answers lie in the histories of the civilisations that thrived in the region, this report focuses on the physical capital related to connectivity, the unfolding forces of international trade, cooperation over disaster, and strategic convergences.
There is no doubt that any connectivity initiative in the region needs to be viewed in the broader backdrop of the unfolding geopolitical and geo-economic forces in the Indo-Pacific. India’s Indo-Pacific vision is delineated by the Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR) postulating a free, open and inclusive region. Even Japan’s, and the US’ visions of ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) are not confined to security and strategic implications; they also have connotations for trade and development. The US insists on rekindling the ‘Quad’ — a potential security arrangement among the four large democracies of Australia, India, Japan, and the US, creating a combined force in the region to balance the unbridled advancement of a resurgent China. A large number of free-trade agreements and regional trade agreements have been hallmarks of the geo-economic regime of this region. While China has conceptualised its gargantuan Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the trilateral Free Trade Agreement between China, Japan and South Korea, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the US and European Union, and other regional trade agreements are emerging due to the apparent failure of the World Trade Organisation’s Doha Round.
Moreover, India’s temporary withdrawal from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has brought a different dimension to the geostrategic and geo- economic concerns in the region. Rightly, this report explores the Bay of Bengal as a maritime space in the broader context of the geostrategic construct of Indo-Pacific, while dealing with India’s strategic dynamics with Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.
It outlines a range of opportunities and threats that emerge in the context of India’s maritime relations with the four countries. Moreover, by bringing in the dimension of disaster management and cooperation over assistance, the report attempts to bring about a newer dimension to the connectivity discourse. While disaster, by itself, is a threat to maritime connectivity initiatives, it is also an enabler of cooperation. The novelty of this work lies not only in raising relevant questions, but also in creating a literature base and combining the same with field-level observations that reinforce the analysis. This is what makes this work highly relevant to policymaking. This is, however, only the beginning and not an end in itself. I am sure that this research will inspire a generation of researchers and scholars to explore further with newer policy questions in this domain and in relevant geographies.
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