No deliberations on international relations, today, can be complete without a reference to China's rise and its implications on geopolitics in general. Debates on America's relative decline and China's eventual rise as the possible successor, especially on the economic front, are becoming seemingly ubiquitous on all forums. Whether China really can step into the US' shoes the way the latter replaced Britain in 20
th century will, possibly be the frontline story of 21
st century. There is little doubt that the centre of gravity in international politics is shifting to Asia, and arguably the century we have entered into, will be an Asian century.
But, very few countries in Asia would want to see the Asian century turn into a Chinese century. As strategic communities around the world continue to spend time discussing Obama's 'Asia Pivot', there is a general agreement that the US never really went away from Asia, and that it has always been a Pacific power. Now, what is emerging is the US' re-emphasis on a region that has always mattered in its strategic calculations. And, a major reason for this reinforcement of interest in the region is connected to the rise of China across the board, and its impact on the geopolitical narratives of countries in the region and beyond.
It is inevitable that China will become a predominant power at least in the Asian hemisphere and that its zone of interests will invariably stretch across the region and even beyond. But, what kind of a power China will mature into is still in the realm of speculation and like many other countries in the Asian neighbourhood, India is concerned about what China's rise portends for its own growth and its regional as well as global aspirations.
India is often seen as the only serious counterweight to China in Asia. China's assertiveness regarding its maritime domains, especially its high-handedness of exclusive sovereignty claims in the South China Sea region has majorly concerned Southeast Asian countries that have claims in the region; and also external players like the US and India who desire to safeguard the freedom of maritime navigation.
Besides, India's strategic community has consistently debated the rising Chinese investments in its vicinity and the influence arising out of it. Many concur on what has been termed China's 'String of Pearls' strategy to encircle India through increased Chinese political, economic and military ties with South Asian countries. Latest reports from India's intelligence agencies have discreetly blamed China's rising influence with the Maldivian government for the scrapped GMR airport deal there, and this new development is being seen in the context of fears of China's strategic design in the larger Indian Ocean region (IOR). Reports also point to Beijing's efforts to preempt a reported US move to set up a military base in Maldive's southernmost island of Gan, as its 50 year lease of Diego Garcia, another US military in the Indian Ocean region, sets to expire in 2016.
Moreover, China was allotted a prime spot to open its embassy in Male some time back and if reports are to be believed, China gave a $500 million loan to Maldives around the same time.
All these, of course, do not amount to saying that India and China are setting sights on an impending hot and real confrontation. China has lots to worry about internally, and will have no time in the coming days to engage in a full-fledged war with anyone. Demands for democracy and increased youth participation should be of concern for Chinese policymakers, who seem to be clearer about the need for economic rather than political or social reforms.
India, too, has lots to care about internally and wouldn't want to initiate a fight with its mightier neighbour. The vibrant democracy is moving at an extremely slow pace and its recent economic growth has raised questions over the sustainability of its economic model. Then, there are serious bottlenecks in the areas of infrastructure development and governance that will demand attention from the central as well as the provincial governments.
But there is no denying that the difficult India-China relationship has all the elements of a cold confrontation. Core issues like the border problem and India's serious concerns regarding the Sino-Pakistan nexus will continue to persist even as the volume of China's trade with India continues to grow enormously. And by now, Beijing has sent out enough reminders that the bonhomie on the economic front would not necessarily result to any traction on the intractable border issue; underscoring the complex and many-sided nature of India-China relationship.
Unquestionably, China has deep economic links with all major countries in the Asian region but economic ties including with India have not translated into better understanding on issues of strategic importance. In recent times, international politics has been influenced by the rise of China more than any other factor. And, by dint of geography, India and China will always be strange bedfellows, with obligations to cooperate on many things, but with lingering differences over core issues of interest.
The rise of China across a broad spectrum of power parameters is indisputable but the international community is concerned as to what kind of Beijing they will see in future.
For one, given China's political culture and economic model, it is hard to see it emerging as the next US. But what kind of power will China prove to be? Speculations abound regarding the leadership transition in China and the revelation of the nature of China's new crop of leaders. That will determine, to a large extent, the future of China's internal and external policy that, in turn, will impact the course of international relations. Will the century ahead be Sino-centric? That still falls in the realm of political astrology.
(Monish Tourangbam is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)
Courtesy: Financial World, dated 2 January,
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